1、 Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of aniline has slightly increased this month, and the price has remained stable in the middle and late stages, with a significant decrease starting at the end of the month. On November 1st, the market price of aniline was 11650 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 11900 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline this month increased by 2.14% compared to the beginning of the month and 14.87% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has declined this month, with prices gradually decreasing. 1、 Crude oil has seen a broad decline, but the cost side is insufficient. 2、 The arbitrage window of Asia US has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is low, resulting in a low import volume of pure benzene in November. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is insufficient. 3、 The downstream profit level is poor, and the price of styrene is in a downward trend, with a relative decrease of 3.34% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7913 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7196 yuan/ton, which decreased by 9.06% compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 9.99% compared to the same period last year.
Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid has slightly increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2083 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 2200 yuan/ton. The price increased by 5.61% compared to the beginning of the month and decreased by 8.94% compared to the same period last year.
In November of this year, the price of aniline significantly increased, with a strong increase in prices in the first half of the year. The market has a strong bullish atmosphere, with smooth shipments from aniline factories. Currently, there is no pressure on inventory, and some factories are still undergoing maintenance, resulting in tight supply. The follow-up on the demand side is normal, and with the fulfillment of Wanhua’s maintenance plan last month, the market’s positive guidance is obvious. The maintenance equipment of the aniline factory is gradually operating normally, and the market supply is gradually increasing.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Pure benzene delivery at the end of the month saw a significant increase in port spot resources due to tight conditions, with small orders being the main form of supplementary orders. In the late trading session, spot buying fell back to 7200 yuan/ton. Shandong’s weekend refineries sold well at low prices, with most businesses looking bullish in the future. Shandong’s pure benzene was sold in large quantities.
There is still a possibility of a short-term decline in pure benzene, and the cost support for aniline is insufficient. In November, there was a strong bullish atmosphere in the aniline market, and there was no pressure on factory shipments. The quotation was actively raised. The fundamentals of aniline are relatively strong, and we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand, and changes in the operating rate of aniline units in the future.