1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk list data from Business Society, the overall price of bromine was weak in June. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 21200 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 18000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 69.18%. On June 29th, the bromine commodity index was 63.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 74.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 7.20% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine is weak this month. The price of bromine continued to decline in mid to early June. The overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light. The downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future. The attitude of the bromine industry is average. In late June, the price of bromine remained stable and the market trend was dominated. Currently, the mainstream market price remains around 17000-18000 yuan/ton, with no significant fluctuations in the market. The overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light, and supply has increased. The downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future. The attitude of the bromine industry is average.

Regarding sulfur: The overall price of sulfur decreased in June. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 810 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price was 713.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 80.47%. In early June, the price of bromine rose, and sulfur enterprises had no pressure on inventory, which may be supported by favorable factors. However, the downstream production capacity utilization rate was low, and the market procurement was limited, resulting in insufficient momentum for sulfur growth. In mid to late June, the price of bromine decreased, sulfur enterprises had sufficient inventory, downstream demand was weak, actual market transactions were light, sulfur manufacturers had poor shipments, and the mentality of operators was insufficient. Under the supply and demand game, the sulfur market support was weak, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and organized.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak trend of bromine prices this month has maintained a temporarily stable operating trend. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported, while the upstream sulfur prices are mainly weak in the latter half of the year, and bromine enterprises’ shipments are relatively average. Moreover, the price of bromine has fallen to a relatively low level, or there is no room for decline. Overall, it is expected that the short-term stable operation of bromine prices will depend on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to decline in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the initial price of 9685.71 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.68%.

On the supply side: In June, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 9400 to 9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some units have been shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient. The weak order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid has affected the market trend of hydrofluoric acid, with raw material fluorite prices at a high level and downstream refrigerant demand being poor. The dual impact has led to serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises, Some companies have chosen to park due to losses, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid operating at around 60%. Some companies have increased inventory, which has affected the decline of the hydrofluoric acid market trend.

Raw material side: The price trend of domestic fluorite decreased slightly in June. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3117.5 yuan/ton, which is 0.83% lower than the daily price of 3143.75 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and spot supply has increased. However, there has been little change in the mining of upstream mines, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are not operating properly. The requirements of environmental protection and emergency management departments are becoming stricter, making it more difficult to start mining. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market price is supported, and the prices of raw materials are high, putting pressure on hydrofluoric acid enterprises.

On the demand side: The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Recently, there has been sufficient supply of refrigerants, which has led to a decline in the price trend of domestic refrigerant R22. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the performance of the domestic trade market is weak, inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet followed up. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market has slightly declined, with scarce procurement of upstream raw materials, and the hydrofluoric acid market has been dragged down by demand.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream raw material fluorite market has fallen from a high level, coupled with the downstream refrigerant industry’s sluggish construction, weak procurement of hydrofluoric acid, high inventory of hydrofluoric acid, resonance between high raw material demand and poor demand, and serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the market may slightly decline.

The domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly declined. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the initial price of 7875 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.20%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

In June, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants was stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is around 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. In June, due to the slight decrease in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride decreased. Recently, the transaction situation of phthalic anhydride has been sluggish, and the market trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Cost side: Low prices of ortho benzene drag down the market

In June, the domestic price of ortho benzene remained low, with a price of 8100 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, which was the same as the price of 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable. However, port inventory is maintained, and the external market price of ortho benzene remains low. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price trend is temporarily stable, and the low ortho benzene market has brought a certain negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, resulting in a slight decline in the phthalic anhydride market price.

On the demand side: DOP market is declining, and on-demand procurement is the main focus

The price trend in the downstream DOP market has slightly declined, with a price of 9518.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month. In June, the price dropped by 1.71%. Domestic DOP enterprises have started operating steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride procurement is normal. In June, DOP prices have slightly declined, while the price of raw material isooctanol has slightly declined. In addition, demand has not significantly improved, and market transaction performance is weak. The mainstream price of DOP is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, which is affected by poor demand in the DOP market, The price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

In the future, the price of O-Xylene is temporarily stable in the short term, but the market of the downstream plasticizer industry is volatile, and the demand is mainly based on demand. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the purchase order situation is general. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride declines slightly, so it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain low in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 28th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 6600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.37% compared to June 1st.

In June, the melamine market remained stable and organized, with some high-end prices lowered by enterprises. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material urea fluctuated, affecting the mentality of the industry on the cost side. The utilization rate of supply side production capacity increased, downstream demand was flat, and the initial demand was mainly followed up in an appropriate amount. Enterprises shipped according to the market, and the quotation was mainly stable, while some high-end prices declined and adjusted. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material urea rose in a narrow range, with average cost support. Enterprises mainly executed preliminary orders, while downstream inquiries and procurement were just needed. The melamine market stabilized and consolidated.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for urea on June 27th was 2239.38, a decrease of 6.79% compared to June 1st (2402.50).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current rise in raw material urea prices has led to an increase in cost support. Enterprises mainly execute advance orders, while downstream demand is average. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may stabilize and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region significantly decreased in June, with the price of calcium carbide dropping from 3150.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.94%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 24.35% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region decreased slightly in June. Overall, the price of calcium carbide decreased slightly in June.

Cost side: The price of blue charcoal has significantly decreased

In June, the price of upstream calcium carbide blue charcoal significantly decreased, with a price of around 980 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, and there is insufficient support for the cost of calcium carbide.

On the demand side: PVC market prices fluctuate and decline

In June, the downstream PVC market prices of calcium carbide continued to fluctuate and decline. The market price of PVC dropped from 5534.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5476.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.04%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 26.71% year-on-year. The PVC Spot market continued to be weak, with light trading, large inventory pressure and poor performance of futures. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence on the market.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early July, the calcium carbide market may slightly decline, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials, such as blue charcoal, have stabilized at a low level, and there is insufficient support for the cost of calcium carbide. Some calcium carbide enterprises have started to resume production, and the circulation of goods has increased. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early July, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 26th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 6600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% compared to last Monday (June 19th).

Recently (6.19-6.26), the melamine market has been mainly stable, and some companies have lowered their prices. Recently, the raw material urea market has experienced a narrow range of fluctuations, with average cost support. Enterprises mainly execute preliminary orders, while downstream inquiries and purchases are just in demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market temporarily stabilized on June 25th. On June 23rd, the reference price of urea was 2239.38, a decrease of 6.79% compared to June 1st (2402.50).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply and demand have little impact on the market. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may consolidate and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in raw material urea prices.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03%.

Supply side: The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has been weak and stable this week. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China is 9500-9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid remains weak.

Raw material side: The market price of raw material fluorite has slightly decreased, with the average domestic fluorite price as of the 25th at 3117.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% this week. Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and the spot supply of fluorite has increased. On the one hand, there is still tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting operations. On the other hand, the operating load of domestic hydrofluoric acid is around 60%, and there is still a rigid demand for fluorite procurement. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced production, and the demand for raw material fluorite has weakened, leading to a slight decline in fluorite prices.

On the demand side: The market for refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has slightly declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to remain low. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the domestic market performance is weak. Inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet been followed up. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market has slightly declined, while upstream raw material procurement is scarce, and the fluorite market price has slightly declined.

Future Market Forecast: In the short term, the raw material fluorite market will fluctuate, and the downstream refrigerant industry will continue to operate in a sluggish manner. The refrigerant market will slightly decline, and the purchase of hydrofluoric acid will be light. In addition, the normal supply of hydrofluoric acid in stock will affect the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises, which will cause serious losses. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the short term.

Market analysis for this week

According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of the 19th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 21000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.08% on a weekly basis. This week, the market price of magnesium ingots continued to decline. Due to weak market demand, coupled with weak prices of raw materials such as ferrosilicon and coal, magnesium prices have slightly declined.

In terms of supply and demand

At present, the price of magnesium in factories is approaching the 20000 yuan mark, and many magnesium factories have gradually reduced their profits. Production remains low, and there is a strong willingness to stabilize prices. Some large factories have chosen to stop quoting. In terms of demand, the market is severely undervalued and low-priced transactions frequently occur. Given the current gap between the prices of magnesium ingots and those of both the purchaser and supplier, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with supply and demand being the main bottleneck.

In terms of raw materials

The weak situation of ferrosilicon Spot market was sorted out and operated, and the market quotation in Ningxia was around 6800-6700 yuan/ton. This week, the national orchid charcoal market remained stable after a decline. At the beginning of the week, mainstream calcium carbide enterprises continued to lower the purchasing price of orchid charcoal by 50-70 yuan/ton. Since June 13th, the reduction has been implemented in the market, and the price of orchid charcoal has accumulated a drop of 380-400 yuan/ton in five rounds of price reduction.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the magnesium ingot market is not ideal, and demand continues to be weak, with magnesium prices operating under pressure. However, as the price of blue charcoal stabilizes, the production cost of magnesium ingots is expected to remain stable, and the willingness of manufacturers to support prices increases. It is expected that magnesium ingots will operate steadily in the short term, with a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to rise. From June 12th to 16th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16620 yuan/ton to 16880 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.56%, a month on month increase of 11.64%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.15%. Multiple production enterprises have successively entered the maintenance of their devices, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market. Traders have taken advantage of this opportunity to increase their quotations, and there is also incremental support in the terminal export market. The market atmosphere continues to be warm.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the equipment is low, and the expected inventory of supply is shrinking.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has seen a significant decline in the domestic pure benzene market price. Some production enterprises have increased production and increased inventory pressure. Crude oil continues to be weak, macro bearish sentiment still exists, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. The domestic pure benzene market continues to be dominated by weak consolidation. On June 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6200.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6560.50 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: The trend of domestic aniline is stable. Traders and downstream users have average buying interest and weak demand. On June 16th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10912.50 yuan/ton, which was the same as at the beginning of this month. Aggregate MDI cost side bearish factors.

On the demand side, taking into account current buying gas, downstream buyers are still buying more, prices continue to rise, and the willingness to consume inventory is strengthening. The short-term aggregate MDI demand is relatively favorable.

In the future market forecast, short-term traders are facing a tight supply of goods, which still provides some support to the market. Analysts from Business Society Aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will continue to strengthen.

This week (6.5-6.12), the Nitrile rubber market continued to be weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 12, the price of Nitrile rubber was 14525 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from 14700 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material butadiene and acrylonitrile fell, and the cost of Nitrile rubber declined; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. This week, the factory prices of some Nitrile rubber enterprises were slightly lowered. At present, the mainstream market of Lanhua nitrile 3305 in East China is 13500~13800 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 16000-16200 yuan/ton; Sibur Nitrile 3365 mainstream reported 13800~14000 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported 14000-14200 yuan/ton.

This week (6.5-6.12), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell, and the cost of Nitrile rubber declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the price of butadiene was 6317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from last Monday’s 6378 yuan/ton; As of June 12th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 1.81% from last Monday’s 8287 yuan/ton at 8137 yuan/ton.

The Nitrile rubber plant operates normally. At present, the supply side of Nitrile rubber is basically stable.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that at present, the supply of Nitrile rubber is stable, and the downstream inquiry increase is not obvious. It is expected that in the short term, Nitrile rubber industry chain is in a weak situation, and Nitrile rubber prices will be adjusted at a low level; In the later period, the maintenance of Nitrile rubber plant of Lanzhou Petrochemical will reduce the supply of Nitrile rubber market slightly, and then the market of some Nitrile rubber brands will rise slightly; In the medium and long term, the rising market of Nitrile rubber still needs the recovery of downstream demand.