According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic market price of Ammonium nitrate rose slightly this week. As of the weekend, the market price of Ammonium nitrate was 4060 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the beginning of the week’s price of 4030 yuan/ton, down 12.31% year on year.

The price of Ammonium nitrate in the domestic market rose slightly this week. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. The supply of goods on the site was normal recently. The goods on the site were generally shipped. The manufacturer’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal fluctuated and rose. The price of nitric acid declined slightly, and the price of Ammonium nitrate rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of Ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry purchase is general. The domestic Ammonium nitrate manufacturers do not start high, and the recent price increase of Ammonium nitrate is not large. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 4000-4100 yuan/ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China has declined. As of the 9th, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% compared to the price of 2033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market remains unabated, the demand continues to be weak, the cost goes down, the supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, the market is dominated by orders, the market turnover is average, the insiders are mainly wait-and-see, the price of the nitric acid market drops, and the price increase of Ammonium nitrate market is limited.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% compared to the price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the operation of liquid ammonia manufacturers’ devices has been stable, and the inventory of manufacturers is still acceptable. There has been little change in the amount of ammonia released in China, and some merchants have seen a slight increase in prices. The overall liquid ammonia market situation has not changed much. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia has brought some positive support to the Ammonium nitrate market, and the price of Ammonium nitrate market has risen slightly.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is mainly volatile, the price trend of nitric acid is declining, and the spot supply of Ammonium nitrate is relatively normal. The Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the price trend of Ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable in the later period.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 3150.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 27.86% year-on-year. On June 4th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 82.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 48.73% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weakened upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream semicarbon market declined slightly, while the downstream PVC market price fluctuated slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal was around 1200 yuan/ton, and the price has dropped by about 100 yuan/ton. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5546.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5548.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.04%. Weekend prices fell by 34.46% year-on-year. The PVC market price has fluctuated slightly and increased, with downstream customers having average enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid to late June, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, cost support has weakened, and the downstream PVC market has stabilized at a low level, resulting in average downstream demand. In mid to late June, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the auction price of the high-temperature coal tar market continued to rise sharply this week. From May 26 to June 2, the domestic coal tar price rose from 3960 yuan/ton to 4372.5 yuan/ton, and the price rose 10.42% in the cycle.

This week, the auction price of coal tar in Shandong continued to rise. This week, the price in Shandong increased by 400 yuan/ton, to 4360 yuan/ton. This week, the supply of coal tar was slightly tight, and the coking enterprises had a strong attitude of supporting prices. The auction price of coal tar continued to rise. In terms of downstream demand, the prices of deeply processed goods continued to rise this week, leading to a rebound in demand for raw materials. Under the support of both supply and demand, tar prices will continue to rise this week.

On June 2, the auction of coal tar in the main domestic production area of the week ended basically. Among them, the Shanxi region received 4380-4420 yuan/ton, an increase of 380-450 yuan/ton compared to the previous auction price. In the Shandong region, it is at 4360 yuan/ton, an increase of about 400 yuan/ton. In the Hebei region, it is 4350 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. In the Jiangsu region, it increased by 400 yuan/ton at 4360 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above monthly coal tar K column chart, it can be seen that since November 2022, the coal tar market has declined for three consecutive months. The price recovered in February, fell sharply in March, and the decline again expanded in April. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market rose sharply for three consecutive weeks after falling for six consecutive weeks.

This week, the coking enterprises started construction at about 74%, basically flat compared with last week. The supply of coal tar is slightly tight, and the coking enterprises are reluctant to sell at high prices. The market prices of coal tar pitch, carbon black and other major commodities in the downstream deep processing industry continued to rise this week, boosting the mentality of the tar market. The tar price continued to rise this week under the support of the common good of supply and demand. Future market: The coal tar market has risen for three consecutive weeks, with an overall increase of 1400-1600 yuan/ton. At present, the market has a cautious attitude. With the temporary slowdown in demand for terminal commodity restocking this week, downstream sentiment towards high priced raw materials is gradually rising. On the whole, the business community predicted that the coal tar market would be stable and strong in the future, but there was limited room for growth. The market was weak in the downstream resistance. The future trend still needs to pay specific attention to the trend of major downstream commodities such as coal tar and asphalt.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of acetic acid in May first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid was 3233.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 3250.00 yuan/ton. The overall increase during the month was 0.52%, and the price decreased by 39.02% year-on-year.

As of the end of the month, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions of China in May are as follows:

Region/ May 4th/ May 17th/ May 31st

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 2950 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

In early May, the price trend of acetic acid continued to rise, with no pressure on enterprise inventory, stable follow-up of downstream demand, smooth shipment of manufacturers, and a continuous increase in the focus of acetic acid transactions; In the middle of the day, the market trading performance was light, with downstream buyers mainly focusing on demand, while acetic acid manufacturers remained stable in their shipments, and the market situation remained stable on the sidelines; In the latter half of the year, after the price of acetic acid was lowered, it operated smoothly. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement was average, and market transactions were weak. The acetic acid market remained stable and weak.

The raw material methanol market has weakened and decreased, with an average domestic market price of 2160.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.87% compared to the price of 2423.33 yuan/ton on May 1st. The price of raw coal has declined, the cost side lacks positive support, and the social inventory of methanol in the supply side continues to accumulate. Coupled with the influx of imported goods, market confidence is insufficient, downstream purchasing and follow-up are insufficient, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price of methanol has fallen again and again.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and declined in May, with a price of 5387.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the price of 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material acetic acid first rose and then fell, and the overall price did not change much. The cost support for acetic anhydride was limited, the production of acetic anhydride was low, the market supply was insufficient, downstream demand was average, and the trading atmosphere on the market was light. Enterprises followed the market, and the acetic anhydride market stabilized and operated.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that acetic acid companies have no inventory pressure, manufacturers are actively shipping, and downstream demand side mentality is wait-and-see, continuing to follow up on just what is needed. The market lacks effective benefits, and the rise of acetic acid is weak. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell sharply in May. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 207.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 175.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton, or 15.46%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 45.31% year-on-year.

On May 29th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 156.12% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has experienced a significant decline this month, with manufacturers having low inventory.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of liquid chlorine

From a cost perspective, the liquid chlorine market stabilized at a low level in May. The price of liquid chlorine is around 10 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Downstream demand is weak

In May, the market situation of ammonium chloride fell sharply, and the market price of ammonium chloride fell from 865.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 627.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 27.46%, and the price at the end of the month fell 58.92% year on year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 1800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1778.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 1.18%, and the price at the end of the month fell 20.68% year on year. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early June, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have significantly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience slight fluctuations and declines.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.98% compared to May 1st.

The melamine market slightly declined in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material urea fluctuated and fell, the cost support weakened, some maintenance devices resumed production, the industry’s operating rate increased, and downstream demand did not significantly improve. Inquiry procurement was mainly based on demand, and the market atmosphere was weak. The melamine market was operating in a weak position. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material urea was weak, with insufficient cost support. The utilization rate of melamine production capacity decreased, and the market supply decreased. However, downstream demand was poor, and there was still a supply-demand contradiction in the market. The mentality of the industry was insufficient, with replenishment being the main demand. Enterprise sales were under pressure, and the focus of negotiations in the melamine market slightly declined.

Upstream urea, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on May 26th was 2447.50, a decrease of 6.36% compared to May 1st (2613.75).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that currently, the price of raw material urea has decreased, and cost support is weak. The supply side is gradually increasing, but the follow-up on the demand side is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may become weak and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has fluctuated after a decline this week, with overall reductions in various wire drawing brands. As of May 26th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7057.14 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -8.43% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the propylene market in Shandong has continued to decline recently. Due to the sluggish demand market and a significant increase in upstream inventory, factories have continued to reduce prices and inventory to stimulate sales. However, the demand increase is limited, and downstream procurement is cautious, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in downstream demand in the short term, and the propylene market will maintain a weak trend.

The rapid decline in propylene prices has weakened the cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained at around 76% this week. Recently, there have been too many maintenance devices, but the overall supply of goods has remained stable. There is sufficient supply of goods on the site, with a narrow decrease in inventory pressure, and there is not significant support from the supply side for spot prices. In addition, the production of multiple new devices has been delayed, and there may be an expected increase in concentrated supply next month. In terms of demand, the downstream plastic weaving production of the main force has stabilized, and the operating rate of film materials enterprises continues to recover. The improvement of end enterprise stock situation is limited, and procurement is mainly focused on maintaining production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 26th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has declined. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7187.50 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of -6.66% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 18.63% compared to the same period last year. This week, the low load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber material, continued horizontally, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The current weak demand for fiber materials on the site is dragging down the digestion speed of non-woven end products, and the enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are lagging behind. In addition, the negative macro impact on demand elasticity predicts that fiber materials may continue to be affected by supply-demand conflicts and maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, this week’s melt blown PP market continued to be weak and consolidated. As of May 26th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is about 8175 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -0.91%, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%. At present, there have been sporadic rebounds in domestic health incidents, but local news in society is unable to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders have given up on orders, indicating that the melt blown material market may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has recently declined. The raw material propylene market has turned down, and the support from the cost side for the market is not good. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production while receiving goods, with weak demand release. The decrease in market orders, coupled with news of new device production in the future, is expected to maintain a weak PP market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price trend in East China continues to decline. On May 24th, the average market price in East China was 17500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.89% compared to the price of 19000 yuan/ton on May 18th, and a decrease of 10.26% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic TDI market is operating in a weak state, with low downstream demand and average purchasing enthusiasm. There are few new orders traded on the market, and there are expectations of an increase in supply side production capacity. The trade market is bearish, and in order to stimulate shipment, TDI offers continue to decline. As of the 24th, the price range for domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is around 17000-17300 yuan/ton, while the price range for Shanghai goods is 17300-17500 yuan/ton, with real order negotiations being the main focus.

Upstream toluene market consolidation operation, as of May 24th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 7070 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.71% compared to the price of 7020 yuan/ton on May 18th. The international crude oil price has risen, and the upstream support for toluene is good, but the downstream realization is weak. The actual order negotiation is average, and manufacturers adjust their prices based on their own shipment situation within the week. The trend of toluene fluctuates slightly.

After market analysis, TDI data analysts from the Business Agency believe that the increase in supplier capacity has an impact on the TDI market. The bearish atmosphere in the TDI market is obvious, and the trade market mentality is pessimistic. Holders are stimulating shipments, and prices are falling. Terminal downstream trading is limited, and demand procurement is insufficient. The market lacks positive news. In the short term, TDI will continue to consolidate its weakness, and we will follow up on specific details.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 22, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8900.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Wednesday (May 17).

The recent market situation for epichlorohydrin has been sluggish. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, while the price of glycerol has temporarily stabilized, with some support for the cost side. Enterprises mainly focus on delivering orders, while downstream inquiries and purchases are generally enthusiastic. They mainly restock small orders on dips, with a cautious wait-and-see mentality. The negotiation atmosphere in the epichlorohydrin market is deadlocked.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on May 19th was 6933.25, a decrease of 1.69% compared to May 1st (7052.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on May 19th was 14433.33, a decrease of 1.37% compared to May 1st (14633.33).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that there is some support on the cost side, but the supply and demand side is generally supported. There is still pressure on holders to ship, and it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12833 yuan/ton on May 15 and 12800 yuan/ton on May 19. Caprolactam prices fell 0.26% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. At present, the supply and demand of caprolactam market is balanced, and the downstream demand is weak. Most of the products are purchased at low prices, and they are mainly cautious.

This week, the price of pure benzene decreased. On May 15th, the price of pure benzene was between 6703-7120 yuan/ton (average price 6911 yuan/ton). On Friday (May 19th), the price of pure benzene was between 6603-6880 yuan/ton (average price 6741/ton), a decrease of 5.18% compared to last week and a decrease of 25.73% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene dropped to 6800 yuan/ton, while prices in Shandong and Hebei regions also fell simultaneously.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support is general. The terminal demand is poor, and the market is relatively balanced between supply and demand. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be weak in the short term, which will be dominated by consolidation operation.