1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued its downward trend this week, and the decline was larger than that of last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3370 yuan / ton, down 2.32% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China and central China will cut the price of xylene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 140000 tons, with an increase of 6000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced, the price is weak, and the demand has not improved. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3380 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the upcoming US election, the progress of a new round of economic stimulus plan launched by the United States, fluctuations in the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East, the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new coronavirus vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the new crown epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has deteriorated sharply once again. Europe has strengthened its blockade and epidemic prevention, and the US stimulus plan negotiation has stalled, which has intensified the market’s worries about the decline in demand. Meanwhile, the active oil drilling platforms in the United States have increased for six weeks, and the crude oil production of OPEC member countries has also increased, which has also depressed the oil market atmosphere. The international oil price remained at the lowest level in five months on Friday. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $5.03/barrel to close at $36.205/barrel, down 12.2% from last week. In October, the international oil price fell for the second consecutive month, the decline was larger than that of the previous month, reaching about 10%, and hitting a new low of four and a half months.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 499 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 517 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline. In terms of PTA market, the market price has decreased significantly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3285 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 435 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 543 USD / T FOB Korea and 570 USD / T CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in the domestic market will continue to decline next week.