Commodity index: on October 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 18.10% from 107.13 (May 8, 2019), and increased by 5.85% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, the trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was basically stable in September. Only in the two days at the end of the month, the price increased by about 400 yuan / ton, only about 2.82%; in October, the trend was still stable, and only a small increase of about 60 yuan / ton was found in the mainstream price on the 14th, while on the 15th, the price fell back immediately, and the overall increase was not very obvious.

Commodity market: in recent two months, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the quotation fluctuation is very small, the demand increment is not very big, and the transaction atmosphere is relatively peaceful. Domestic manufacturers of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) mainstream quotation: cationic, molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) offer 14000-15000 yuan / ton, anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton, 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles The quotation of granule is 9600-10500 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18 million yuan / ton, the quotation of solid particle is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18-20 million yuan / ton, the quotation of powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; for non-ionic, the quotation is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton. One of the price changes, only some manufacturers in the above-mentioned range of small adjustments.

Industrial chain: upstream: at the end of August, the mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 8450 yuan / ton, at the end of September, it was about 8750 yuan / ton. In October, the price of acrylonitrile was raised several times, with the range of about 550 yuan / ton, and it was reported to be about 9300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At present, the main domestic manufacturers’ plant status: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance on October 17, and it was postponed to the end of the month for restart and recovery. In October, Sinopec implemented 9000 yuan / ton of acrylonitrile settlement price in East China and 9050 yuan / ton in North China. The 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Formosa Plastics Chemical Co., Ltd., located in Mailiao, will maintain full load operation in November. In addition, it is planned to shut down for maintenance for about four weeks from January 8, 2021. Japan Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. implemented the price of acrylonitrile CP in November at 1300 USD / T. Downstream: in terms of the characteristics of the traditional sales season, the demand for sewage treatment downstream of water treatment should be increased this month. Up to now, the price of polyacrylamide has only increased by about 2% at the end of September. After that, the price has been basically stable, with few increases. This shows that the downstream demand is not as good as expected, but as far as the market is concerned, there are still a few manufacturers due to sales and sales The inventory situation and price have increased to a certain extent, and the relative range is not very large. The market expects that the heating season will come, and the environmental protection requirements will stimulate the demand for polyacrylamide, which will improve in the future.

Industry situation: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, from the perspective of the impact of the industrial chain, acrylonitrile rose by about 850 yuan / ton in two months. For the polyacrylamide manufacturers, there should be cost pressure. However, according to the water treatment manufacturers, because the market has been depressed this year, the manufacturers have a high stock, and the current raw material cost pressure has not been transmitted to the price of polyacrylamide, and the current sales inventory is still the main one 。 Secondly, due to the current market demand, the improvement of environment is not as big as expected, and the demand of water treatment industry needs to be improved. In the future, after the traditional golden sales period of “Jinjiu”, the arrival of heating season and environmental protection requirements will continue to improve the market of water treatment products, and the price of polyacrylamide may still rise. Beware of the impact of environmental requirements on the production of some manufacturers and the impact on the market.