In August, propane continued to rise, showing a trend of first rising and then consolidation. Affected by the off-season factors, the rise is relatively limited. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on August 1 was 3350.00 yuan / ton, and that on August 31 was 3442.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.76% in the month and a decrease of 33.32% compared with January 1.
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The propane Market Trend in August can be divided into two stages
The first stage: in the first ten days of August (8.1-8.19), propane continued to rise slightly. At the beginning of the month, good news from the market continued to support the continuous rise of propane. The main reasons for this are: CP price rose slightly in August, propylene butane increased by 5 US dollars / ton, and the cost of imported gas remained high. During this period, the international crude oil fluctuated and the market mentality was favorable. The third reason was that the output of domestic refineries decreased and the market supply decreased, which brought strong support to the market. Propane as a fuel, and its related civil gas rose steadily, which brought about market improvement Vibration is the fourth. Downstream bullish mentality in the market is more positive, the market transaction atmosphere is mild, the upstream inventory is mostly in the low position operation, the mentality is relatively strong. Among them, the price of North China and North China is relatively strong.
The second stage: in the middle and late August (8.19-8.31), the market showed a horizontal trend. At this stage, the trend of propane market is weak, but the decline range is limited due to the high cost support of air intake. As the off-season factors still exist, the terminal demand needs to be improved, and as the price continues to push up, the downstream demand is limited, and the resistance is increased. After the early replenishment, it is mainly off market and wait-and-see, and the mentality is more cautious. Compared with the previous period, the atmosphere of market transaction was obviously weakened, the manufacturers’ shipment was blocked, and the inventory was gradually increased. In order to stimulate the downstream market entry, there were profit making operations.
As of August 31, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:
Regional specification August 31
Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 952850-3250 yuan / ton
Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953250-3460 yuan / ton
Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3350-3450 yuan / ton
Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 952950-3070 yuan / ton
Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953100-3350 yuan / ton
Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3530-3800 yuan / ton
In August, there were some differences between the north and the south of China’s propane Market. The northern market was mostly strong and rising, while the southern market had a strong upward resistance, with a downward trend and a relatively low price.
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Upstream, international crude oil: the international crude oil price rose in August, and the WTI crude oil futures price rose by 7.15%. The international crude oil market continues to release good news. The U.S. crude oil inventory has been greatly reduced, the US crude oil inventory has been greatly reduced, and the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) has put pressure on the oil producing countries whose output exceeds the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. As a result, a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were forced to shut down and crude oil production was reduced.
Civil use of liquefied petroleum gas: in August, the LPG market continued the rising trend in July, and the center of gravity continued to move upward. There were more favorable conditions in the month, which supported the market to rise again. However, due to the traditional off-season has not passed, the market is still negative factors, the road to rise is more difficult, showing a volatile upward trend in the month.
On the downstream side, the propylene market fluctuated periodically in August, with a breakthrough in the price range at the beginning of the month. During the period from the beginning of May to the end of May, the prices of some small enterprises have remained stable from the first round of May to the end of May, but they have continued to rise from the first round of May to the end of October Most manufacturers still keep their prices stable. On the 29th, the prices dropped by about 50 yuan / ton, and then continued to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 6880 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.
In terms of the international market, Saudi Aramco announced CP in September 2020, with propane at $365 / T, stable compared with the previous month; butane at $355 / T, up $10 / T from last month.
At present, the trend of international crude oil is uncertain, which brings limited support to the market. However, CP rose steadily in September, which brought some support to the market. Moreover, the off-season in August has passed, and September and October are about to usher in the traditional sales peak season. The terminal demand is expected to increase, and with the high support of import costs, September may rise or become a foregone conclusion. However, due to the time required for market demand and the increase or limitation, it is expected that the market will rise steadily in the short term.
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