1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the mainstream average price of domestic PVC in September 4 was 6605 yuan / ton, up 0.8% compared with 6552 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 1.07% higher on a month on month basis, and a decrease of 0.64% compared with the same period last year.
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2、 Market analysis
PVC market prices rose this week, but the peak season is expected to be insufficient, the increase is not big. This week, futures high shock, high fall, spot market price change is not much, more stable. Although PVC has gradually stepped out of the traditional off-season and entered the golden nine peak season, the demand side is still in general. The constraints in the off-season have not returned, and the downstream still hold a wait-and-see attitude, maintain the rigid demand procurement, and have limited ability to receive high-priced goods, the transaction atmosphere is not high, and the support capacity of PVC on the demand side is not expected to be sufficient. This week, PVC enterprises still have maintenance plan, inventory decline, supply side pressure is not big, PVC support force is OK. In the peak season, the price of PVC is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, but there is still no need for macro support.
In terms of supply and demand, Wuhai chemical, Tianjin LG and other enterprises have been overhauled this week, resulting in a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in the loss compared with that in the previous week. In addition, there were new enterprises in Inner Mongolia Yihua and Ningxia Yingli te in September, and the supply side still has support. On the demand side, the downstream follow-up is general. The start-up of large-scale manufacturers is maintained at about 70% to 80%. The start-up of pipe enterprises has declined slightly. The business procurement is cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The market activity is not high. On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand is not big, and the PVC market is still on the rise.
Regional variety technology September 4
Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6620-6720 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 6420-6520 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 6580-6650 yuan / ton
Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6590-6620 yuan / ton
In terms of spot goods, as of September 4, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide materials was around 6400-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6630-6700 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, it is 6420-6520 yuan / ton; in Inner Mongolia, the price is increased by 6200-6300 yuan / ton including tax; in Hangzhou, it is 6580-6650 yuan / ton; in Changzhou, it is 6590-6620 yuan / ton; in Guangzhou, it is 6620-6720 yuan / ton Price consolidation is the main factor, and the fluctuation is not big.
In terms of futures, the volatility was strong, and the high was blocked. On Friday, the opening price of v2101 contract was 6710, the highest price was 6720, the lowest price was 6650, and the closing price was 6685, down 30%, or 0.45%. The trading volume was 150000 hands, with a decrease of 2000 hands. The position of 213000 hands decreased by 6205.
Upstream crude oil, 3, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 41.37 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.14 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 44.07 US dollars / barrel, down 0.36 US dollars. According to the business association, oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the near future.
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Ethylene, under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly. As of July 3, the price was 721.25, and the Asian ethylene market was up. The European and American ethylene market was mainly stable and the demand was fair. Affected by the fall in the upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market may fall mainly in the later stage.
As of 4 days ago, the price of calcium carbide was around 2740 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of raw materials in the upstream has generally supported the price of calcium carbide, while the PVC market in the downstream has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the calcium carbide supply is normal. Calcium carbide rose slightly after the shock.
3、 Future forecast
According to the PVC analysts of the business club, although the number of maintenance enterprises has decreased, the demand side has gradually entered the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced without major contradictions. Under the circumstances of macro warming and strong futures shocks, the PVC market is getting better. It is expected that the trend will continue in the short term, and the follow-up of the demand side needs to be paid attention to in the future.
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