1、 Price trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone was stable this week. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week and the end of the week was 7383 yuan / ton, 2.78% higher than that of the same period last month and 14.45% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of cyclohexanone is stable this week. The main price in Shandong is 7300-7450 yuan / ton (ex factory in spot exchange), which is stable compared with last week. The situation in the Middle East is suddenly tense, crude oil is rising, pure benzene market is rising, and cyclohexanone cost pressure is increasing. Although the caprolactam market is slightly up, the total demand for chemical fiber is general. In addition to the impact of heavy snow in the North last week, logistics and transportation are affected, and the demand for solvent is limited. At the beginning of the week, Bank of China in Jining stopped production of cyclohexanone and converted to cyclohexane production. However, there was abundant spot supply of cyclohexanone, and the industry was not confident in the future market, which led to poor sentiment and stable operation of the market.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene rose in shock. This week, the Middle East geopolitical factors led to a staged surge in crude oil prices, which led to an increase in the price of benzene inside and outside. Within the week, FOB South Korean pure benzene once rose to 751 US dollars / ton, and domestic East China market sales rose to 6020 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise of pure benzene, phenol ketone and caprolactam in the downstream rose slightly in the week. However, the main downstream styrene declined due to the difficulty of spot delivery and the expected increase of subsequent supply, which failed to form a good support for pure benzene. Therefore, the rebound basis of pure benzene is not solid. After the crude oil’s rise is digested and the rise is reversed, the center of gravity of pure benzene also shows a small decline.

Caprolactam: the caprolactam market rose slightly this week. On January 3, the US air strike resulted in the death of senior Iranian officials, and the escalation of us Iran conflict led to the rise of crude oil prices, with the price of kinetic plate following the rise. The price of pure benzene rose to 6000 yuan / ton in East China market under the support of favorable external conditions. The loss of caprolactam was deepened when the price of raw materials increased, and the manufacturer actively supported the price to reduce the loss. In addition, due to the impact of snowfall in the north this week, the start-up of the caprolactam plant in the North was not high as a whole, and transportation was limited, resulting in the shortage of caprolactam spot supply. The market price of caprolactam increased with the improvement of cost and supply.

Adipic acid: in the end of the month, the attitude and enthusiasm of the domestic adipic acid market players have decreased, and the external situation at the beginning of last weekend and the rainy and snowy weather in many places also have a certain impact on the adipic acid market. At the beginning of the month, the main adipic acid plants were mostly free of pressure, some of them were still under construction, the trading hours were slightly reduced, the contract volume of middlemen was also reduced, the pressure of manufacturers was not low, and the market mentality was strong. With the change of news in the week, the offer moved up slowly, and the middle of the week was a short wait-and-see. The main listing of pure benzene is on the high side of 5950 yuan / ton, and adipic acid industry is generally concerned about cost pressure. However, the price of oil and bulk will be boosted briefly within the week based on the news from the inside and outside of the week, and then the price will go down. However, the settlement cycle is nearly half, and the cost will still move up to support the expectation of the industry.

3、 Future forecast

In general, although some cyclohexanone is temporarily stopped, there is abundant spot supply in the market, and the demand for chemical fiber is general. Near the end of the year, logistics and transportation are limited, and solvent users have entered the holiday stage in succession, and the impact of total market demand is limited. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the market for cyclohexanone will be stable before the festival.