1、 Price trend
In 2019, the domestic market of dimethyl ether rose many times and then fell sharply, showing a continuous trend of “down v”. Compared with last year, this year’s trend is more tortuous, and the overall price is at a low level. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic market price of dimethyl ether will be slightly reduced in 2019, mainly due to shocks. At the beginning of the year, the average price was 3220 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of dimethyl ether in China was 3123.33 yuan / ton, a year-round decline of 3.00%. From the trend chart of DME price, it can be clearly seen that the highest point of domestic DME price in 2019 appears on January 7, the average domestic price is 3630 yuan / ton, the lowest point appears on August 30, the average price is 2920 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year is 19.56%, and the price comparison between the end of the year and the beginning of the year is not much different.
2、 Market analysis
In 2019, the price trend of the whole year is roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of April, with the market of DME fluctuating at a high level; the second stage is from the end of April to the end of July, with the market of DME falling continuously; the third stage is from the end of July to the end of November, with the market of DME rising and falling twice in a row; the fourth stage is from the end of November to the end of the year, with the market of DME fluctuating continuously The market rose continuously, and the specific trend is as follows:
In the first stage, around the Spring Festival, the market of dimethyl ether fluctuated frequently, mostly with high volatility, and the overall transaction atmosphere was fair. At the beginning of the month, due to the strong trend of the international crude oil and liquefied gas market, it played a positive role in the DME market. In addition, under the influence of the new year’s Day holiday, the downstream manufacturers actively entered the market to replenish goods. The manufacturers are confident and the prices continue to rise to a high level. However, the rate of pushing up is too fast, and there is a psychological resistance to high prices, and the downstream replenishment is over, and they have left the market to wait and see. But at this time, the Spring Festival will come, and the manufacturers will arrange the warehouse before the festival, so the market atmosphere is stagnant. Manufacturers have no choice but to continue to make profits until the market trading atmosphere has warmed up. After the Spring Festival, in most areas, there is Blizzard, the market demand and transportation capacity are in a weak position, the manufacturer’s shipment is continuously blocked, the inventory pressure is increasing, the market continues to be weak, mainly downward. Until the beginning of March, the market rebounded to a certain extent due to the upward support of cost methanol and the influence of multiple plant maintenance in Henan Province. Later, due to the control of liquefied gas, it returned to the weak.
In the second stage, the market of dimethyl ether is in the off-season, and the unit is under centralized maintenance. The overall operating rate in April is only 22.33%. In the early stage, due to the impact of centralized maintenance in Henan, the market supply was reduced, and the consolidation was mainly horizontal. However, in the later period, the maintenance benefits are constantly consumed, most of the manufacturers’ devices are restarted, and the market is in the off-season, the terminal demand is gradually weakened, the manufacturer’s inventory is gradually increased, and the downstream only needs replenishment. At this time, the cost of methanol fluctuated upward, which increased the cost pressure of DME production enterprises. But by crude oil and liquefied gas containment, prices fell one after another. At this time, the production enterprises are affected by high inventory and high cost, and are adjusted to half load production.
In the third stage, the market of DME fluctuated for two consecutive times. The first time: on July 19, there was an explosion in Henan Yima Gasification Plant, and all four of its enterprises stopped for rectification. The overall operating rate of the market fell sharply, resulting in a sharp rise in market price. Take xinlianxin in Henan Province as an example, it rose from 2980 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.42%, and other plants all increased significantly. Due to seasonal factors, the terminal demand has not improved, and the market continues to rise, so after the event, the DME market quickly returned to rationality. In August, due to weak terminal demand, unable to support the market, the transaction atmosphere continued to be cold, and xinlianxin repeatedly implemented the minimum guarantee policy to protect the market price. However, the impact on the market is limited and the decline cannot be changed. In the later stage, the traditional “gold nine silver ten” market showed signs of recovery. The second time: on September 14, the attack on Saudi Aramco’s factory led to a sharp rise in crude oil, which led to a sharp rise in liquefied gas in a short time, and the cost of methanol was also driven by crude oil. This event reversed the decline of dimethyl ether, and the downstream buyer was active in entering the market. Then, the 11th primary school holiday brought good results. The market price of dimethyl ether rose continuously, and the price was only the highest point in the next year. In the middle of October, although the peak season was not over, it was also close to the end. DME ended the peak season ahead of time due to the rapid rise in the early stage. In late October, the market opened a downward channel, and the downstream market dropped out to wait and see, with a cautious attitude.
In the fourth stage, the operating rate of domestic DME market was only 15.58% in November, and the market supply decreased. In November, CP price rose, coupled with the continuous rise of international crude oil in late November, the news played a positive support in the face of the market. Although the cost of methanol in this stage is weak, liquefied gas is the main driving force for the rise of DME. Due to the tight international spot supply, the civil market of liquefied gas is dominated by a large margin. The national market has increased by different ranges, the price difference between gas and ether has been continuously opened, the downstream mentality is better, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has been improved. The DME market rose to the end of the year.
DME production in 2019:
| ammonium persulfate |
10000 tons January February March April May July August September October November
Output 24.65 21.765 24.494 22.465 24.567 22.13 22.43 15.29 13.71 8.8 12.0
Year on year 0% – 11.70% + 12.54% – 8.28% + 8.56 – 9.92% + 1.36% – 31.83% – 7.71% – 35.81% 36.36%
3、 Industrial chain:
In 2019, the domestic methanol market fluctuated frequently. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the year was 2188 yuan / ton. As of December 23, the average market price of methanol in China was 2090 yuan / ton, down 4.48% in the year. The highest price in the year is 2572 yuan / ton on March 11, and the lowest price in the year is 1970 yuan / ton on July 31, with a maximum amplitude of 23.41%.
The methanol market in 2019 can be described as “mixed sorrow and happiness”. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the domestic methanol market price has two large-scale growth, the first time in the first quarter, with the increase of 16.91% from February 12 (2200 yuan / ton) to March 12 (2572 yuan / ton) after the lunar year. The second time was at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. From September 1 (1994 yuan / ton) to October 11 (2392 yuan / ton), the increase was 19.96%. A big price “dive” occurred in the middle of the second quarter, and the price continued to fall for a long time, from May 23 (2342 yuan / ton) to July 31 (1970 yuan / ton), down 15.88%.
In 2019, the domestic civil market of liquefied gas developed into: the first half of the year saw great ups and downs, and the second half of the year saw “forge ahead”. Compared with 2018, the trend is quite different, but still subject to seasonal factors. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose slightly in 2019, during which most of the price was volatile. At the beginning of the year, the average price of liquefied gas was 3900 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 3966.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.17% in the whole year. It can be clearly seen from the price trend chart of liquefied gas that in 2019, the highest price of domestic liquefied gas appeared on April 26, the average price was 4516.67 yuan / ton, the lowest price appeared on September 11, the average price was 3640 yuan / ton, the maximum amplitude of the whole year was 19.41%, the annual fluctuation was large, and the price of liquefied gas hit a new low within two years.
4、 Future forecast
In recent years, more and more attention has been paid to the news of DME industry. Due to the influence of policies, some manufacturers have been shut down for a long time. Although the production capacity is high, the utilization rate has been greatly reduced. As we all know, most of dimethyl ether is used to mix with liquefied gas, but in the second half of 2019, the state strengthened the inspection of mixed gas, and some small manufacturers had to shut down. In 2019, the market operating rate of dimethyl ether is only about 15-20%, and the two methyl ether survive under the attack of two sides of methanol and liquefied gas. As of December 30, the market price of DME has returned to a stable state. In the short term, it seems that the trend of DME is mainly narrow adjustment. Looking back to 2019, the market trend of DME is lower than that of previous years, the overall price is at a low level, the market supply and demand is unbalanced, and the fluctuation is still greatly affected by the trend of liquefied gas Civil and methanol. In 2020, the mixed market is not optimistic, and the living space of DME may still be narrowed.
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