1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, ammonium sulfate continued to fall in the fourth quarter, and the market is now stable. On October 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulphate was 636 yuan / ton, and on December 29, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulphate was 546 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 14.14% in the quarter. So far, the ammonium sulphate commodity index on December 29 is 45.75, which is the same as yesterday, 56.95% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 24.83% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the market of ammonium sulphate is stable at present after the previous big fall. The domestic and foreign market of ammonium sulphate is weak, and the market of coking ammonium sulphate is stable. The price of mainstream ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan Province is 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 480-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 450-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the agricultural demand is off-season. At present, the production enthusiasm of the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, and the operating rate is around 40%. The raw materials are mostly purchased on demand, and the supply is sufficient. Generally speaking, the demand for ammonium chloride in the downstream market is weak. The price of ammonium chloride is slightly loose. With the small increase of nitrogen fertilizer market, it is expected to drive up, and the industry is slightly boosted. At present, the compound fertilizer enterprises are mainly horizontal arrangement with limited adjustment space. Mainly focus on the trend of urea. Compared with other regions, the northeast region has improved in goods delivery.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively trichloromethane (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, at present, the start-up of ammonium sulfate Market in winter is slow, and the operation rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is slightly increased, but the enthusiasm of stock up is insufficient. Domestic demand for ammonium sulphate is weak abroad, and the delivery volume is average. The market bidding of coking ammonium sulfate is better than before. It is expected that the internal ammonium sulfate Market will fluctuate slightly in the later stage, while the coking ammonium sulfate Market will remain stable.