1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, affected by the weak trading in the market before the festival, the domestic maleic anhydride market fell sharply. As of September 30, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method remained at about 9000 yuan / T, which was 3.57% lower than that on September 27 and 29.81% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on September 29 was 85.41, down 2.51 points compared with yesterday, 30.94% lower than 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and 66.88% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: Recently, the domestic maleic anhydride market has become weak, the trade in the industry has turned to be light, the completion degree of stock preparation before the festival is high, and the prices of production enterprises have not changed, some holding traders have reduced their prices to avoid risks. At present, there are about 8800 yuan / ton of solid anhydride in Shandong, 9400 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 8800 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 8800 yuan / ton in Hebei and 9200 yuan / ton in South China.

Industrial chain: hydrogenation benzene pre season stock has basically completed, the market shock is the main, crude oil benzene outside the plate is not suck up, the good support is limited, the market waits for a visit mood is thicker, at present 3332 yuan / ton; the downstream resin industry predominated by the wait and see, the trade turnover is slow, the transaction is light, but the internal horizontal arrangement is the main.

3、 Future forecast

The maleic anhydride product analysts of the business agency believe that the maleic anhydride market has stabilized after the fall, and the trade volume in the industry is weak, some cargo holders choose to reduce the price of shipment to avoid risks, and more sporadic small orders are traded, so the market is stable and soft in a short period of time.

International crude oil demand is expected to decline, and crude oil prices will decline. Affected by this, the price center of domestic refined oil market will move downward. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of gasoline on September 25 was 5387 yuan / ton, down 1.31% from the beginning of the week; on September 25, the price of diesel oil was 4700 yuan / ton, down 1.93% from the beginning of the week.

This week’s EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory continued to decline, which was good for the international crude oil price; however, negative news such as OPEC’s international discount sales of crude oil, the reduction of crude oil price expectations by Barkley and other institutions, the resumption of production of Libya’s crude oil and the aggravation of the epidemic situation in Europe continue to stimulate the international crude oil market. ETI crude oil prices fell 2.59% this week, while Brent crude oil prices fell 2.29%.

In terms of gasoline demand, near the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, residents’ driving trips increased, but the temperature dropped, the fuel consumption of gasoline air conditioning decreased, and the overall consumption of gasoline maintained a rigid demand. In addition, the international oil price went down, and the domestic oil product market prices declined slightly. In terms of diesel demand, entering the “golden nine silver ten” peak demand season, the demand for diesel oil in engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries is supported, but the demand is not significantly increased. Although there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream before the festival, the diesel market is mainly low-cost and on-demand replenishment. Coupled with the downward trend of international oil prices, the diesel market is slightly sluggish.

On September 25th, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 73%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil market demand is expected to decline, and the crude oil price is weak; however, the peak of replenishment after the mid autumn National Day Festival is expected, and the refined oil price is expected to usher in an upward trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of steam coal is mainly stable this week. On September 21, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 594 yuan / ton, and on September 25, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at about 598 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.67% and a year-on-year increase of 1.66%. On September 24, the commodity index of steam coal was 71.78, unchanged with yesterday, down 30.32% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), and 60.58% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of production area, Shaanxi cement chemical industry has a good purchasing enthusiasm, most coal mine quotation is temporarily stable, and some coal mines are slightly increased. The price of coal in Ordos region of Inner Mongolia has been rising steadily. Compared with Shaanxi Province, the number of coal mines with price adjustment is relatively small. The price of a few coal mines has increased by about 5-10 yuan, while the price of other coal mines is temporarily stable. With the holiday approaching, the inspection of the main coal producing areas is upgraded, coupled with the restriction of coal pipe tickets, the coal supply tends to be tight.

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 593-603 yuan / ton. The daily consumption of power plants is low, the inventory of Beigang is fluctuating downward, and the supply of high-quality goods is in short supply. The port coal price is close to this year’s high and red range. In September, the precipitation dropped seasonally and the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir decreased significantly. Hydropower is still stronger than in previous years, but the substitution of thermal power will become weaker. Power plant replenishment started. In the middle and late September, the power plant ushered in seasonal replenishment cycle, thus boosting the price of steam coal.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on September 24, the national coal price rose steadily in mid September. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: anthracite (washing medium block, volatile content ≤ 8%) price is 866.7 yuan / ton, which is 26.7 yuan / ton higher than the previous period, or 3.2%. The price of ordinary blended coal (the mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 462.9 yuan / ton, up 19.8 yuan / ton or 4.5% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi mixed coal (better quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 526 yuan / ton, an increase of 26.4 yuan / ton or 5.5% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal, calorific value of 5500 kcal) was 587.8 yuan / ton, up 29.5 yuan / ton or 5.3% compared with the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (produced by Datong, with calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 618.3 yuan / ton, up 35.2 yuan / ton or 6% compared with the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1270.0 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous period. The above data show that China’s coking coal continued to maintain stability in mid September, and the prices of anthracite and steam coal rose sharply.

Analysts from the business agency believe that: in the near future, hydropower generation has maintained a high level, which has squeezed the thermal power plants. In addition, the atmosphere in autumn has declined, the demand for electricity for residents has been weakened, the characteristics of electricity coal consumption in the off-season are obvious, and the energy of end-users to replenish the reservoir has weakened. According to the data, the daily coal consumption of zheneng power, one of the six major coastal power plants, was 107000 tons on September 23, a decrease of 27000 tons compared with 134000 tons at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 14000 tons compared with the same period last year. In a comprehensive view, the short-term steam coal price may maintain the consolidation trend, which depends on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product was 4766 yuan / ton on September 14, and 4833 yuan / ton of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product on September 18, with the price rising by 1.40% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin prices rose slightly this week. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5100 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and that in Henan Province is 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4400-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is 4400-4700 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5000 yuan / ton.

This week, the raw material market prices fluctuated slightly. The price of raw material liquid wax decreased slightly this week, and the demand was general. The price of raw material liquid chlorine remained high and stable, and the prices in some regions rose, and the overall market was stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the current chlorinated paraffin raw material liquid chlorine market is OK, with cost support. However, the downstream demand situation is not ideal, with less orders. It is expected that in the short term, the market of chlorinated paraffin will be put into operation.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2410 yuan / ton, which was the same as 2410 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 19.50%. On September 18, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 126.84, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 63.94% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started normal operation, and the on-site supply of ammonium nitrate was slightly tense. Some manufacturers reported that the goods taking situation was improved, and the price trend of manufacturers was slightly higher. Recently, the supply of on-site goods was tight, the transportation was normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remained high. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and some manufacturers’ prices have increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2300-2500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2100-2200 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2600-2800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose. The weekend price was 1516.67 yuan / ton, and this week’s price increase was 1.11%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 1750 yuan / ton. The quotation of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1580 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance equipment has been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods taking situation has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the field has risen slightly. The rising price of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia decreased slightly this week, and the price of liquid ammonia dropped by 1.06% this week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant was normal, the spot supply was normal, and the market price of liquid ammonia was slightly reduced. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are still in the maintenance period. It is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain stable in the near future. However, with the recovery of large plants in Shandong Province, the ammonia quantity gradually accumulates, the upstream liquid ammonia market price drops slightly, and the market price of ammonium nitrate keeps stable.

In recent years, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is limited, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the price trend of raw material market rises slightly. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is tight, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the future.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (September 16): 2740.00 yuan / ton

On September 16, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on September 14. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product was 4800 yuan / ton on September 7, and 4766 yuan / ton of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product on September 11, which dropped by 0.69% this week. .

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin prices fell slightly this week. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5100 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 4200-4800 yuan / ton, and that in Henan Province is 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4400-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is 4600-4800 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4800-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials is good this week. The domestic supply of raw material liquid wax is tight, and the price is stable. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong remained stable after rising, and the price was at a high level. Most of the region’s market is stable and fluctuates slightly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the current market of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is good, cost support is good. However, the downstream demand is still poor, with a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the mainstream average price of domestic PVC in September 4 was 6605 yuan / ton, up 0.8% compared with 6552 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 1.07% higher on a month on month basis, and a decrease of 0.64% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

PVC market prices rose this week, but the peak season is expected to be insufficient, the increase is not big. This week, futures high shock, high fall, spot market price change is not much, more stable. Although PVC has gradually stepped out of the traditional off-season and entered the golden nine peak season, the demand side is still in general. The constraints in the off-season have not returned, and the downstream still hold a wait-and-see attitude, maintain the rigid demand procurement, and have limited ability to receive high-priced goods, the transaction atmosphere is not high, and the support capacity of PVC on the demand side is not expected to be sufficient. This week, PVC enterprises still have maintenance plan, inventory decline, supply side pressure is not big, PVC support force is OK. In the peak season, the price of PVC is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, but there is still no need for macro support.

In terms of supply and demand, Wuhai chemical, Tianjin LG and other enterprises have been overhauled this week, resulting in a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in the loss compared with that in the previous week. In addition, there were new enterprises in Inner Mongolia Yihua and Ningxia Yingli te in September, and the supply side still has support. On the demand side, the downstream follow-up is general. The start-up of large-scale manufacturers is maintained at about 70% to 80%. The start-up of pipe enterprises has declined slightly. The business procurement is cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The market activity is not high. On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand is not big, and the PVC market is still on the rise.

Regional variety technology September 4

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6620-6720 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 6420-6520 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 6580-6650 yuan / ton

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6590-6620 yuan / ton

In terms of spot goods, as of September 4, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide materials was around 6400-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6630-6700 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, it is 6420-6520 yuan / ton; in Inner Mongolia, the price is increased by 6200-6300 yuan / ton including tax; in Hangzhou, it is 6580-6650 yuan / ton; in Changzhou, it is 6590-6620 yuan / ton; in Guangzhou, it is 6620-6720 yuan / ton Price consolidation is the main factor, and the fluctuation is not big.

In terms of futures, the volatility was strong, and the high was blocked. On Friday, the opening price of v2101 contract was 6710, the highest price was 6720, the lowest price was 6650, and the closing price was 6685, down 30%, or 0.45%. The trading volume was 150000 hands, with a decrease of 2000 hands. The position of 213000 hands decreased by 6205.

Upstream crude oil, 3, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 41.37 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.14 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 44.07 US dollars / barrel, down 0.36 US dollars. According to the business association, oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the near future.

Ethylene, under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly. As of July 3, the price was 721.25, and the Asian ethylene market was up. The European and American ethylene market was mainly stable and the demand was fair. Affected by the fall in the upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market may fall mainly in the later stage.

As of 4 days ago, the price of calcium carbide was around 2740 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of raw materials in the upstream has generally supported the price of calcium carbide, while the PVC market in the downstream has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the calcium carbide supply is normal. Calcium carbide rose slightly after the shock.

3、 Future forecast

According to the PVC analysts of the business club, although the number of maintenance enterprises has decreased, the demand side has gradually entered the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced without major contradictions. Under the circumstances of macro warming and strong futures shocks, the PVC market is getting better. It is expected that the trend will continue in the short term, and the follow-up of the demand side needs to be paid attention to in the future.

In August, propane continued to rise, showing a trend of first rising and then consolidation. Affected by the off-season factors, the rise is relatively limited. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on August 1 was 3350.00 yuan / ton, and that on August 31 was 3442.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.76% in the month and a decrease of 33.32% compared with January 1.

The propane Market Trend in August can be divided into two stages

The first stage: in the first ten days of August (8.1-8.19), propane continued to rise slightly. At the beginning of the month, good news from the market continued to support the continuous rise of propane. The main reasons for this are: CP price rose slightly in August, propylene butane increased by 5 US dollars / ton, and the cost of imported gas remained high. During this period, the international crude oil fluctuated and the market mentality was favorable. The third reason was that the output of domestic refineries decreased and the market supply decreased, which brought strong support to the market. Propane as a fuel, and its related civil gas rose steadily, which brought about market improvement Vibration is the fourth. Downstream bullish mentality in the market is more positive, the market transaction atmosphere is mild, the upstream inventory is mostly in the low position operation, the mentality is relatively strong. Among them, the price of North China and North China is relatively strong.

The second stage: in the middle and late August (8.19-8.31), the market showed a horizontal trend. At this stage, the trend of propane market is weak, but the decline range is limited due to the high cost support of air intake. As the off-season factors still exist, the terminal demand needs to be improved, and as the price continues to push up, the downstream demand is limited, and the resistance is increased. After the early replenishment, it is mainly off market and wait-and-see, and the mentality is more cautious. Compared with the previous period, the atmosphere of market transaction was obviously weakened, the manufacturers’ shipment was blocked, and the inventory was gradually increased. In order to stimulate the downstream market entry, there were profit making operations.

As of August 31, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification August 31

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 952850-3250 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953250-3460 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3350-3450 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 952950-3070 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953100-3350 yuan / ton

Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3530-3800 yuan / ton

In August, there were some differences between the north and the south of China’s propane Market. The northern market was mostly strong and rising, while the southern market had a strong upward resistance, with a downward trend and a relatively low price.

Upstream, international crude oil: the international crude oil price rose in August, and the WTI crude oil futures price rose by 7.15%. The international crude oil market continues to release good news. The U.S. crude oil inventory has been greatly reduced, the US crude oil inventory has been greatly reduced, and the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) has put pressure on the oil producing countries whose output exceeds the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. As a result, a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were forced to shut down and crude oil production was reduced.

Civil use of liquefied petroleum gas: in August, the LPG market continued the rising trend in July, and the center of gravity continued to move upward. There were more favorable conditions in the month, which supported the market to rise again. However, due to the traditional off-season has not passed, the market is still negative factors, the road to rise is more difficult, showing a volatile upward trend in the month.

On the downstream side, the propylene market fluctuated periodically in August, with a breakthrough in the price range at the beginning of the month. During the period from the beginning of May to the end of May, the prices of some small enterprises have remained stable from the first round of May to the end of May, but they have continued to rise from the first round of May to the end of October Most manufacturers still keep their prices stable. On the 29th, the prices dropped by about 50 yuan / ton, and then continued to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 6880 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

In terms of the international market, Saudi Aramco announced CP in September 2020, with propane at $365 / T, stable compared with the previous month; butane at $355 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

At present, the trend of international crude oil is uncertain, which brings limited support to the market. However, CP rose steadily in September, which brought some support to the market. Moreover, the off-season in August has passed, and September and October are about to usher in the traditional sales peak season. The terminal demand is expected to increase, and with the high support of import costs, September may rise or become a foregone conclusion. However, due to the time required for market demand and the increase or limitation, it is expected that the market will rise steadily in the short term.

In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated upward, and on August 21, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil market ushered in an upward adjustment. During the peak gasoline demand season in August, the gasoline price fluctuated and rose; affected by the rainfall, the demand for diesel oil in southern China was in a gradual recovery period, and the price of diesel oil fell steadily. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on August 31 was 5551 yuan / ton, up 1.57% from the beginning of the month; on August 31, the price of diesel oil was 4830 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from the beginning of the week.

In August, the international crude oil market continued to release good news. The US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) meeting “put pressure on the oil producing countries whose production exceeded the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. The impact of the hurricane forced a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico to be shut down, resulting in crude oil production Lower. International crude oil prices rose in August, with WTI crude oil futures up 7.15%.

In terms of gasoline, since the middle of August, the domestic hot weather has decreased, the terminal demand for gasoline has maintained a just demand, and the international crude oil price has fluctuated upward. However, the domestic oil product market is not willing to push up, and low-cost shipment is the main factor, and the price of refined oil market only rises slightly. In terms of diesel oil, the terminal demand of diesel oil in southern China began to recover gradually in the first ten days of August, but the support for diesel market was not obvious, and the domestic industrial and mining, outdoor construction, transportation and so on maintained the rigid demand level. The price of diesel oil market remained stable and fell slightly.

In August, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased first and then increased, but the overall operating load of the refinery was about 71% – 75%, and the domestic oil product output remained at a high level.

Lu Xingjun, a refined oil analyst at the business club, said: in August, the international crude oil market continued to be positive and stimulating, but the overall international crude oil market remained stable and did not form a continuous upward trend. It is expected that the crude oil price in September will still fluctuate at a high level. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver and ten, the price of refined oil is expected to rise slightly in September.