1、 Price trend

This week, the selling price of sulphuric acid in Shandong is stable temporarily, with the quotation of 397.50 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market temporarily stable, October 23 sulfuric acid commodity index was 61.87.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturers’ inventory is small, and the downstream demand is strong. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 400 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 270 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 350 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has been consolidation at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the lower reaches of the market has a positive impact on sulfuric acid. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of October, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The price of sulfur in the upstream has been high recently, and the downstream market is good. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream for sulfuric acid is normal, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small shock rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market gradually recovered. As of October 26, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method remained at about 8333 yuan / ton, up 1.63% compared with the same period last week and 10.71% lower than that of the same period last month.

On October 25, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 77.25, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 37.54% from the highest point of 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and increased by 50.94% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Affected by the low price of maleic anhydride in the early stage, the downstream market and traders made replenishment on the low price, and the overall market trading recovered, and the enterprises had a good intention to push up. In addition, the prices of peripheral products have been rising recently, which has promoted the price of maleic anhydride to rise strongly. At present, the solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 7400 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 7100 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7100 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 7300 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the pure benzene market is in the rising channel after the festival, driven by the downstream styrene rising and the external market rising. At present, it is about 3387 yuan / ton; the demand of downstream resin industry is stable, most manufacturers still just need to purchase, and the overall operating rate of the industry is about 40%.

3、 Future forecast

The maleic anhydride product analysts of the business agency believe that the current maleic anhydride market is strong and upward, the rising raw material prices lead to good cost support, and the downstream market has a good intention to replenish at a low price, which is expected to be strong in a short period of time.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate remained high this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was equal to 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 26.09%. On October 23, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started operation normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the field was tight. Some manufacturers reported that the situation of goods taking was improved, and the price trend of manufacturers remained high. Recently, the supply of on-site goods was tight, the transportation was normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remained high. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and some manufacturers’ prices have increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose. The weekend price was 1583.33 yuan / ton, up 1.06% this week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1650 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1650 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 1800 yuan / ton. The quotation of Wenshui synthetic chemical industry is 1530 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods moving situation has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the field has risen. The price rise of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia remained high this week, with an average price of 3200 yuan / ton. The operation of liquid ammonia plant was normal, the spot supply was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market remained high. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are still in the maintenance period. It is estimated that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain stable in the near future. Recently, the shipment of liquid ammonia from Shandong manufacturers has slowed down significantly, mainly for self use, which has stimulated the market price to maintain a high level, the upstream liquid ammonia market price rises, and the market price of ammonium nitrate goes up The potential remains high.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are normal, and the price trend of raw material market is temporarily stable. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is tight, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain a high level in the future.

On October 20, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.70/barrel, up $0.64. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.16/barrel, up $0.54. International oil prices rose by more than 1% on Tuesday, mainly due to market expectations that a new US stimulus policy for the epidemic is close to being reached. However, the surge in the number of new cases of the global epidemic has slowed down the recovery expectations of most economies, and the increase in Libya’s oil production has limited the room for oil prices to rise.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1533 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1566 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the quotation rising by 2.17%.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 1550-1600 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1750 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last time; Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / T, which was flat compared with last time; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1550 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, with an increase of 170 yuan / ton compared with last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd The price of concentrated nitric acid is 1530 yuan / ton, and that of dilute nitric acid is 680 yuan / ton. The price of concentrated nitric acid is flat compared with that of last week. The trading volume of nitric acid market is good.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream product liquid ammonia increased by 1.05% this week, while the downstream aniline increased by 2.06% this week, and the TDI quotation was temporarily stable this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid market trading can still and the liquid ammonia market preference, nitric acid analysts in the business community predict that the price may rise.

This week (10.12-10.16), the price of nitrile rubber increased significantly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of nitrile rubber was 15766 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 17000 yuan / ton at the weekend, an overall increase of 7.82%.

The ex factory price of NBR manufacturers increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of the end of the week, the ex factory price of NBR n41 in Lanhua was 14700 yuan / ton, and the offer of 3305 was 15300 yuan / ton. Downstream suppliers purchased on demand, and the prices of raw materials went up, and the offers of traders followed. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of October 16, the butadiene price was 6863 yuan / ton, up 7.86% from 6363 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; as of October 16, the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was 8800 yuan / ton, up 1.15% from 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

In addition, high nitrile prices in the market will promote the short-term demand for nitrile.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate remained high this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was equal to 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 26.09%. On October 15, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started operation normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the field was tight. Some manufacturers reported that the situation of goods taking was improved, and the price trend of manufacturers remained high. Recently, the supply of on-site goods was tight, the transportation was normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remained high. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream procurement is on demand, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal operation, and some manufacturers’ prices have increased slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3500-3700 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid rose, with the weekend price of 1566.67 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry quoted 1600 yuan / ton, Anhui Jinhe quoted 1550 yuan / ton, Shandong helitai quoted 1750 yuan / ton. The quotation of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1580 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the on-site goods moving situation has improved. The price trend of nitric acid in the field has risen. The price rise of nitric acid is a good support for the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market remains high.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with an average price of 3200 yuan / ton. The liquid ammonia plant started to operate normally, the spot supply was slightly tight, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market rose. From the basic point of view, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia market is mainly balanced, and some manufacturers’ devices are still in the maintenance period. It is expected that the domestic liquid ammonia market will remain stable in the near future. Recently, the liquid ammonia shipment of Shandong manufacturers has slowed down significantly, mainly for self-use, and there is stock preparation behavior in the downstream, which stimulates the continuous upward trend of market price and the upstream liquid ammonia Market Market prices rose, ammonium nitrate market price trend remained high.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and sales of nitro compound fertilizer are normal, and the price trend of raw material market is temporarily stable. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is tight, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain a high level in the future.

With the advent of the silver decade, the LPG market finally welcomed the recovery of the market, and continued to rise after the double festival. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 2776.67 yuan / ton on October 8, and 3126.67 yuan / ton on October 14, up 12.61% after the festival, down 2.29% from September 1.

This year’s “Jinjiu” LPG civil market did not usher in an upward market, but went further and further in the downward line. However, after entering the “silver decade”, the LPG civil market was more reluctant, and finally met a sharp rebound. During the double festival holiday, the market has opened the upward route. After the festival is continued to rise sharply, the rise in South China is the most prominent rise, the market is more sustained. According to the data monitoring of business agency, taking Guangzhou Petrochemical Company as an example, the civil price of liquefied gas of Guangzhou Petrochemical Company was 2748 yuan / ton on September 30, and 3348 yuan / ton on October 14, with an increase of 600 yuan / ton. Other regions are not weak. The overall center of gravity of the civil gas market has moved up, and now it has risen to more than 3000 yuan / ton.

This rise is not unexpected, in the peak season, rising prices are reasonable. As Xiaobian predicted, the price rise will be late, but it will not be absent. Due to this year’s “Jinjiu” did not rise but fell, the price in September has fallen to a relatively low level. In October, international crude oil rose more than fell, bringing strong support to the market. After the festival, the downstream inventory and replenishment demand was more positive, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, and the inventory was mostly at a low level. In terms of market supply, the import gas at the port decreased significantly compared with that in September. In terms of market demand, the weather temperature continued to drop in October, especially in the northern market, where the terminal demand increased, resulting in a phased imbalance between supply and demand.

On October 14, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions in China were as follows:

Specification, mode of transportation, region, date, mainstream transaction price

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China October 14: 3400-3450 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China October 14: 3270-3400 yuan / ton

Civil gas and motor transportation in South China October 14 3450-3600 yuan / ton

Civil gas transportation by truck in Shandong province October 14: 3100-3130 yuan / ton

Transportation of civil gas by truck in Northeast China October 14: 3000-3050 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Western China October 14: 3170-3450 yuan / ton

At present, the performance of LPG civil market in different regions is different. South China continues to rise due to tight supply; North China market increases slightly without pressure on production and sales; Shandong and North China return to stability with good trading atmosphere; although East China rises, the range is narrower than the previous period; Northeast China continues to rise, and local supply is tight; western region continues to focus on Northwest and southwest China Move up, downstream into the market actively.

LPG futures market’s recent strong rise has brought some support to the spot market

On October 14, the opening price of the main contract of LPG futures in 2011 was 3699, the highest price was 3761, the lowest price was 3668, the closing price was 3737, the previous settlement price was 3687, and the settlement price was 3723, with an increase of 50 or 1.35%. The trading volume was 116423, the position was 33984, and the daily increase was – 2200. (unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the trend of domestic LPG civil market varies from region to region, but the trend is relatively strong. At present, the downstream market entry is more positive, the manufacturers’ shipment situation is good, and the inventory is mostly at a low level. In October, with the weather cooling down, the terminal demand is still expected to improve, and the current international crude oil rose more or less, bringing some support to the LPG market. However, due to the rapid rise this time and the limited downstream acceptance capacity, it is expected that the rising route will remain unchanged and the increase may be narrowed.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business agency, affected by the weak trading in the market before the festival, the domestic maleic anhydride market fell sharply. As of September 30, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation method remained at about 9000 yuan / T, which was 3.57% lower than that on September 27 and 29.81% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on September 29 was 85.41, down 2.51 points compared with yesterday, 30.94% lower than 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and 66.88% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: Recently, the domestic maleic anhydride market has become weak, the trade in the industry has turned to be light, the completion degree of stock preparation before the festival is high, and the prices of production enterprises have not changed, some holding traders have reduced their prices to avoid risks. At present, there are about 8800 yuan / ton of solid anhydride in Shandong, 9400 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 8800 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 8800 yuan / ton in Hebei and 9200 yuan / ton in South China.

Industrial chain: hydrogenation benzene pre season stock has basically completed, the market shock is the main, crude oil benzene outside the plate is not suck up, the good support is limited, the market waits for a visit mood is thicker, at present 3332 yuan / ton; the downstream resin industry predominated by the wait and see, the trade turnover is slow, the transaction is light, but the internal horizontal arrangement is the main.

3、 Future forecast

The maleic anhydride product analysts of the business agency believe that the maleic anhydride market has stabilized after the fall, and the trade volume in the industry is weak, some cargo holders choose to reduce the price of shipment to avoid risks, and more sporadic small orders are traded, so the market is stable and soft in a short period of time.

International crude oil demand is expected to decline, and crude oil prices will decline. Affected by this, the price center of domestic refined oil market will move downward. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of gasoline on September 25 was 5387 yuan / ton, down 1.31% from the beginning of the week; on September 25, the price of diesel oil was 4700 yuan / ton, down 1.93% from the beginning of the week.

This week’s EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory continued to decline, which was good for the international crude oil price; however, negative news such as OPEC’s international discount sales of crude oil, the reduction of crude oil price expectations by Barkley and other institutions, the resumption of production of Libya’s crude oil and the aggravation of the epidemic situation in Europe continue to stimulate the international crude oil market. ETI crude oil prices fell 2.59% this week, while Brent crude oil prices fell 2.29%.

In terms of gasoline demand, near the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, residents’ driving trips increased, but the temperature dropped, the fuel consumption of gasoline air conditioning decreased, and the overall consumption of gasoline maintained a rigid demand. In addition, the international oil price went down, and the domestic oil product market prices declined slightly. In terms of diesel demand, entering the “golden nine silver ten” peak demand season, the demand for diesel oil in engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries is supported, but the demand is not significantly increased. Although there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream before the festival, the diesel market is mainly low-cost and on-demand replenishment. Coupled with the downward trend of international oil prices, the diesel market is slightly sluggish.

On September 25th, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 73%, and the start-up load of the refinery remained at a high level, and the domestic refined oil supply was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil market demand is expected to decline, and the crude oil price is weak; however, the peak of replenishment after the mid autumn National Day Festival is expected, and the refined oil price is expected to usher in an upward trend.