This week (6.22-28), around the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic polysilicon market remained stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price change was not big, and the market basically ended the periodic downward market. By the end of the week, the domestic polysilicon primary material price was 38000-40000 yuan / ton. At present, the polysilicon price has dropped by more than 20% compared with the peak in mid March. There are obvious signs of stabilization at the bottom of the market.

In late June, domestic polysilicon manufacturers are still in the maintenance period, so the pressure on supply is obviously relieved compared with the beginning of the month, and some markets are in tight supply. According to statistics, there are three polysilicon manufacturers in the maintenance period at the end of the month, namely, Xinte energy, Dongfang hope and Sichuan Yongxiang. The domestic supply pressure is not large. In addition, there are two polysilicon manufacturers in the maintenance period in the foreign market, namely, Wacker in Germany and OCI in Malaysia. The pressure from the import side has also been relieved. In general, the supply of fundamentals is tight. Therefore, the current price has stopped falling, but the market has not rebounded obviously at present, the main reason is that the overall market price cannot be raised successfully due to the weak demand. This week, most of the pre delivery orders of polysilicon, new orders were not reached, and the price was basically the same as that of last week, with stable operation. However, the price of imported silicon materials has successively reached a new low, further impacting the domestic market. According to statistics, polycrystalline silicon in non China region is still in a downward cycle in June. Since June, the RMB price of imported silicon materials has dropped by 3000-4000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of terminal demand, general rigid demand still exists, and it has recovered compared with may, but the overall demand volume is still insufficient, which is mainly due to the domestic demand recovery. From the perspective of downstream silicon wafer, domestic silicon wafer manufacturers still have rigid demand for polycrystalline orders. However, in terms of exports, the downstream battery and module exports are obviously affected. India, the main demand country for overseas photovoltaic products, has been hit by the epidemic, resulting in a drop in demand and a significant reduction in orders. The situation of instability of outgoing borders and ports has been superimposed. Although there is no current situation of cancellation, however, the expansionary demand has become impossible, and the impact may be more obvious in the later period 。

In the later stage, the business community believes that the current polysilicon supply-demand contradiction is eased, mainly due to the reduction of supply, and the polysilicon inventory removal cycle is basically coming to an end. It is expected that one polysilicon enterprise still has a maintenance plan in July, adding that at present, three polysilicon enterprises still have not finished the maintenance, and two may end the maintenance task in the middle of July, and the supply pressure in July is still tight. However, whether the market can rebound is still determined by the demand side. At present, the demand for polysilicon mainly comes from domestic rigid demand. The external demand is still weak, and the overseas epidemic situation is still severe. The export data of photovoltaic modules in May has declined month on month, and the situation in June is not optimistic. The improvement of external demand still needs time. It is comprehensively predicted that polysilicon is still at the bottom stage. Whether it can rebound in the later stage remains to be further observed.