1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rose steadily this week. As of Friday, the average price in the domestic market was about 3440 yuan / ton, up 4.24% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Boosted by the surge in international crude oil prices, toluene prices rose steadily this week. Sinopec’s listed toluene prices generally rose 100-200 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is at a high level. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 65000 tons, so the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3520 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the optimism that the vaccine news will boost crude oil demand at the beginning of the week, and the crude oil inventory decline announced by the American Petroleum Association is significantly higher than expected, which supports the strong rebound of international crude oil. It rebounds to around $43 / barrel on Wednesday and then gradually falls back to close around 40 on Friday. At the beginning of next week, we will focus on the gains and losses of $40 / barrel support. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.485/barrel to close at $41.785/barrel, up 9.1% month on month. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI continued the downward trend this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. At present, 13000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 13200 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to decline. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 510 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 528 US dollars / ton CFR China. Short term PX market is expected to decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will recover slightly next week.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 16, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 37000.00 yuan / ton, the market price was stable, the supply and demand were balanced, the downstream demand was limited, and the purchase was just needed, and there was no significant increase. At present, the price of power type lithium iron phosphate was stable, the market price was mainly stable, and the price change was not obvious.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power is 33000-37000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is dull. At present, the price range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 28750 yuan / ton. The quotation of power type lithium iron phosphate enterprises is 37000 yuan / ton of Guangdong Optical Technology Co., Ltd., Foshan Shanshi German Nano Technology Co., Ltd. 37000 yuan / ton, beiteri new energy materials Co., Ltd. 37000 yuan / ton, most of the enterprise quotation is stable, the merchants ship actively, actively yield profits, the transaction price basically maintains the cost online and offline, the profit is kept to the minimum, and it is expected that there will be a turning point.

At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 36500-39500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 41000-45000 yuan / ton, and the price remains stable.

On November 15, the chemical index was 822 points, unchanged with yesterday, 19.09% lower than the highest point of 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 37.46% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe that: lithium iron phosphate market demand is poor, in the short term to continue a stable trend. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, this week, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate quoted 4100.00 yuan / ton. The current price fell by 1.50% month on month, and the current price was 5.48% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate remained stable. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, with relatively sufficient inventory and insufficient driving force to rise. The price of this week did not change much. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotations are different.

On November 13, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On November 13, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2200 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, potassium chloride supply is normal, future market is expected to be low consolidation of potassium chloride market. Potassium chloride market high and stable, can give potassium nitrate a certain cost support.

In recent years, the domestic price of potassium chloride is at a high level, and the subsequent supply of Port imported potassium is not sufficient. However, the downstream raw material procurement is not active. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

On November 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.29/barrel, up $3.15 or 8.48%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 42.40 US dollars / barrel, up 2.95 US dollars or 7.48%. Oil prices surged on Monday, the biggest one-day gain in nearly five months, after Pfizer announced a major breakthrough in its new crown vaccine, which the company said could prevent 90% of infections. In addition, the Saudi energy minister said at a meeting on Monday that OPEC + could adjust its production reduction agreement if an agreement was reached, which also pushed up oil prices.

Although the price adjustment and reduction of domestic refined oil has been implemented, the rising international oil price and the bullish sentiment in the gasoline market are gradually rising, and the price of MTBE market is going up. The price of MTBE on November 6 was 3633 yuan / ton, up 3.13% from the price at the beginning of the week, according to business agency data.

At 24:00 on November 5, the domestic oil product market price was lowered, but the international crude oil price rose as a whole, the domestic oil product market bullish sentiment rose, and the gasoline price rose overall. And the EIA data showed that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data also had a significant positive impact on oil prices, stimulating domestic gasoline market transactions. This week, the shutdown and maintenance of MTBE units in Shandong increased, and the supply of MTBE resources decreased. In addition, the positive news of the international crude oil market continued to spread, and the international oil price rose. Manufacturers in Shandong Province actively pushed up the market price of MTBE.

According to MTBE product analysts of energy branch of business agency, the demand of international crude oil market is weak, and the price of international crude oil and gasoline market will still fall under pressure. Meanwhile, the price promotion of MTBE manufacturers can not be sustained. It is expected that domestic MTBE prices will be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, this week, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate quoted 4100.00 yuan / ton. The current price fell by 1.50% month on month, and the current price was 5.48% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate is stable, the trading atmosphere is general, downstream factories take more goods on demand, the inventory is relatively sufficient, and the rising power is insufficient. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 3900-4400 yuan / ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotations are different according to different purchasing conditions.

On November 6, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2200 yuan / ton of potassium chloride, which increased by 150 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. The potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, and the quotation is up by 100 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market rose, giving potassium nitrate cost support.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride is going up, and the supply of domestic potassium chloride and Port imported powdered potassium is relatively tight. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, but the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 5, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 9166.67 yuan / ton. Since the beginning of November, DMF has entered a continuous downward trend. At present, the latest price statistics show that the price of DMF has decreased by 22.75% compared with that at the beginning of this month, with a drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton. Recently, DMF has been running in a weak position with limited space for decline.

In November, the domestic DMF market price fell sharply and continued to fall. Some manufacturers had a daily drop of nearly 2000 yuan / ton. In a short period of time, the drop was more than 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the slow shipment and the reduction of new orders and new quantity have led to high inventory pressure, dull purchasing atmosphere, normal operation of enterprises’ devices, and reduction of downstream demand. The focus of DMF market is not stable, and there is no return in the short term Turn the favorable conditions, continue to maintain weak operation, weak shock operation.

The upstream methanol inventory is general, the shipment is fair, the mentality is stable, and the price is tentatively rising. At present, East China and South China have a small rise, and the price in Northeast China is stable.

On November 4, the chemical index was 799, down 7 points from yesterday, 21.36% from the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 33.61% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: the DMF market is currently running in a weak position, with a wide range of decline, and maintaining a downward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued its downward trend this week, and the decline was larger than that of last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3370 yuan / ton, down 2.32% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Xylene prices fell slightly this week. Sinopec’s enterprises in South China and central China will cut the price of xylene by about 100 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 140000 tons, with an increase of 6000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced, the price is weak, and the demand has not improved. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3380 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the upcoming US election, the progress of a new round of economic stimulus plan launched by the United States, fluctuations in the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East, the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continued deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new coronavirus vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the new crown epidemic situation in Europe and the United States has deteriorated sharply once again. Europe has strengthened its blockade and epidemic prevention, and the US stimulus plan negotiation has stalled, which has intensified the market’s worries about the decline in demand. Meanwhile, the active oil drilling platforms in the United States have increased for six weeks, and the crude oil production of OPEC member countries has also increased, which has also depressed the oil market atmosphere. The international oil price remained at the lowest level in five months on Friday. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $5.03/barrel to close at $36.205/barrel, down 12.2% from last week. In October, the international oil price fell for the second consecutive month, the decline was larger than that of the previous month, reaching about 10%, and hitting a new low of four and a half months.

Downstream, in terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week was about 4450 yuan / ton, and the latest external price was about 499 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 517 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market will continue to decline. In terms of PTA market, the market price has decreased significantly this week. The domestic PTA spot market price is about 3285 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 435 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will continue to decline next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / T of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 543 USD / T FOB Korea and 570 USD / T CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will continue a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that xylene in the domestic market will continue to decline next week.

Commodity index: on October 31, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 87.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 18.10% from 107.13 (May 8, 2019), and increased by 5.85% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, the trend of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) was basically stable in September. Only in the two days at the end of the month, the price increased by about 400 yuan / ton, only about 2.82%; in October, the trend was still stable, and only a small increase of about 60 yuan / ton was found in the mainstream price on the 14th, while on the 15th, the price fell back immediately, and the overall increase was not very obvious.

Commodity market: in recent two months, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the quotation fluctuation is very small, the demand increment is not very big, and the transaction atmosphere is relatively peaceful. Domestic manufacturers of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) mainstream quotation: cationic, molecular weight 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) offer 14000-15000 yuan / ton, anion: molecular weight 10 million yuan / ton, 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight 12 million yuan / ton, molecular weight 14 million solid particles 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight 16 million solid particles The quotation of granule is 9600-10500 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18 million yuan / ton, the quotation of solid particle is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18-20 million yuan / ton, the quotation of powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; for non-ionic, the quotation is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton. One of the price changes, only some manufacturers in the above-mentioned range of small adjustments.

Industrial chain: upstream: at the end of August, the mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 8450 yuan / ton, at the end of September, it was about 8750 yuan / ton. In October, the price of acrylonitrile was raised several times, with the range of about 550 yuan / ton, and it was reported to be about 9300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At present, the main domestic manufacturers’ plant status: Fushun Petrochemical’s 92000 T / a acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance on October 17, and it was postponed to the end of the month for restart and recovery. In October, Sinopec implemented 9000 yuan / ton of acrylonitrile settlement price in East China and 9050 yuan / ton in North China. The 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Formosa Plastics Chemical Co., Ltd., located in Mailiao, will maintain full load operation in November. In addition, it is planned to shut down for maintenance for about four weeks from January 8, 2021. Japan Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. implemented the price of acrylonitrile CP in November at 1300 USD / T. Downstream: in terms of the characteristics of the traditional sales season, the demand for sewage treatment downstream of water treatment should be increased this month. Up to now, the price of polyacrylamide has only increased by about 2% at the end of September. After that, the price has been basically stable, with few increases. This shows that the downstream demand is not as good as expected, but as far as the market is concerned, there are still a few manufacturers due to sales and sales The inventory situation and price have increased to a certain extent, and the relative range is not very large. The market expects that the heating season will come, and the environmental protection requirements will stimulate the demand for polyacrylamide, which will improve in the future.

Industry situation: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, from the perspective of the impact of the industrial chain, acrylonitrile rose by about 850 yuan / ton in two months. For the polyacrylamide manufacturers, there should be cost pressure. However, according to the water treatment manufacturers, because the market has been depressed this year, the manufacturers have a high stock, and the current raw material cost pressure has not been transmitted to the price of polyacrylamide, and the current sales inventory is still the main one 。 Secondly, due to the current market demand, the improvement of environment is not as big as expected, and the demand of water treatment industry needs to be improved. In the future, after the traditional golden sales period of “Jinjiu”, the arrival of heating season and environmental protection requirements will continue to improve the market of water treatment products, and the price of polyacrylamide may still rise. Beware of the impact of environmental requirements on the production of some manufacturers and the impact on the market.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of polyester filament is affected by the negative effects such as the sharp fall of cost and the fall of downstream purchasing sentiment. The overall heat of polyester filament is declining, and the market is running slightly. All products are in a downward trend this week. Among them, the decline of polyester FDY is more obvious, with a weekly decline of 3.02%, while that of polyester POY and polyester DTY is 1.45% and 0.35% respectively.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from October 23 to 30, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from October 23, 2020 to October 30, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5798.33-5623.33 – 3.02% – 24.59%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5504.00-5424.00 – 1.45% – 23.32%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 7170.00-7145.00 – 0.35% – 19.28%

At present, the polyester filament Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, and mainstream factories begin to reduce prices and promote sales. The price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5350-5650 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 5210-5850 yuan / ton, and polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 7000-7400 yuan / ton. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream textile enterprises has declined, and the raw material inventory is mainly digested, and the market transaction is light. In terms of production and marketing, the average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 60% – 80%, and the production and sales of some better factories can reach 120%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 27-38 days, including POY inventory of 9-15 days, FDY inventory of 20-37 days, and DTY inventory of about 28-39 days.

The PTA Market of raw materials fell in a narrow range. As of October 30, the average market price was 3285 yuan / ton, 4.54% lower than the beginning of the week, and 33.28% lower than that at the beginning of the week. In terms of plant maintenance and restart coexist. Yishenghua’s 3.75 million ton PTA plant has reduced its load by 50% and planned maintenance. On October 31, Yangzi Petrochemical planned to overhaul 350000 tons. However, on October 28, Hanbang 2.2 million tons PTA plant was restarted, on October 30, Yizheng Chemical fiber 650000 tons was planned to restart, and Hengli petrochemical company planned to restart 2.2 million tons on November 1. It is expected that PTA starting load will rise from next week. In addition, another 1.1 million tons of new PTA capacity of Dushan energy phase II was postponed to the beginning of November, and crude oil fell. The production and sales of downstream polyester market were flat, which was negative for PTA market mentality.

On the downstream side, due to the cold winter expectation and the favorable expectation of domestic purchasers for “double 11″, there are more winter cold proof fabrics in the traditional market of China Light Textile City. The corresponding demand for winter fabrics increases, which drives the sales of corresponding raw materials in the upstream. The downstream weaving factories also increase their horsepower near the double 11 node and make full preparations day and night. At present, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is at present At present, the factory orders are mostly maintained around the early November. However, according to the news in Shengze area, the transaction growth rate of fabric market has slowed down. Although manufacturers have more orders in hand, the de stocking speed is slow. At present, the inventory in Shengze is about 40 days, and the start-up rate continues to maintain at a high level of 80-90%. At the same time, the recovery of foreign trade market is not as good as expected, and the market confidence has also dropped slightly. Textile enterprises also have certain concerns. Therefore, we adopt the business strategy of more market-oriented atmosphere and production according to order for raw material procurement.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that although the current polyester filament market price has fallen, the overall performance is still quite strong under the favorable support of terminal demand. In November, it is mainly the “double 11″ clothing and home textile e-commerce preparation, followed by the “double 12″ arrival, or will usher in a wave of replenishment, the order volume is still likely to rise. In addition, with the decrease of temperature and the demand for cold proof clothing fabrics, the market atmosphere for goods will be driven, and the price will rise at that time. However, the supply pressure of raw material market will remain, and the cost side support is insufficient, so the overall price increase will not be too large. From the middle and late ten days, with the advent of the off-season procurement, the price will also weaken, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the raw material market and foreign trade situation.