1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the mainstream average price of domestic PVC in September 4 was 6605 yuan / ton, up 0.8% compared with 6552 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 1.07% higher on a month on month basis, and a decrease of 0.64% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

PVC market prices rose this week, but the peak season is expected to be insufficient, the increase is not big. This week, futures high shock, high fall, spot market price change is not much, more stable. Although PVC has gradually stepped out of the traditional off-season and entered the golden nine peak season, the demand side is still in general. The constraints in the off-season have not returned, and the downstream still hold a wait-and-see attitude, maintain the rigid demand procurement, and have limited ability to receive high-priced goods, the transaction atmosphere is not high, and the support capacity of PVC on the demand side is not expected to be sufficient. This week, PVC enterprises still have maintenance plan, inventory decline, supply side pressure is not big, PVC support force is OK. In the peak season, the price of PVC is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, but there is still no need for macro support.

In terms of supply and demand, Wuhai chemical, Tianjin LG and other enterprises have been overhauled this week, resulting in a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in the loss compared with that in the previous week. In addition, there were new enterprises in Inner Mongolia Yihua and Ningxia Yingli te in September, and the supply side still has support. On the demand side, the downstream follow-up is general. The start-up of large-scale manufacturers is maintained at about 70% to 80%. The start-up of pipe enterprises has declined slightly. The business procurement is cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The market activity is not high. On the whole, the contradiction between supply and demand is not big, and the PVC market is still on the rise.

Regional variety technology September 4

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6620-6720 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 6420-6520 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide process 6580-6650 yuan / ton

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6590-6620 yuan / ton

In terms of spot goods, as of September 4, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide materials was around 6400-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is around 6630-6700 yuan / ton; in Hebei Province, it is 6420-6520 yuan / ton; in Inner Mongolia, the price is increased by 6200-6300 yuan / ton including tax; in Hangzhou, it is 6580-6650 yuan / ton; in Changzhou, it is 6590-6620 yuan / ton; in Guangzhou, it is 6620-6720 yuan / ton Price consolidation is the main factor, and the fluctuation is not big.

In terms of futures, the volatility was strong, and the high was blocked. On Friday, the opening price of v2101 contract was 6710, the highest price was 6720, the lowest price was 6650, and the closing price was 6685, down 30%, or 0.45%. The trading volume was 150000 hands, with a decrease of 2000 hands. The position of 213000 hands decreased by 6205.

Upstream crude oil, 3, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 41.37 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.14 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 44.07 US dollars / barrel, down 0.36 US dollars. According to the business association, oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the near future.

Ethylene, under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly. As of July 3, the price was 721.25, and the Asian ethylene market was up. The European and American ethylene market was mainly stable and the demand was fair. Affected by the fall in the upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market may fall mainly in the later stage.

As of 4 days ago, the price of calcium carbide was around 2740 yuan / ton. The low price consolidation of raw materials in the upstream has generally supported the price of calcium carbide, while the PVC market in the downstream has risen slightly recently. The downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the calcium carbide supply is normal. Calcium carbide rose slightly after the shock.

3、 Future forecast

According to the PVC analysts of the business club, although the number of maintenance enterprises has decreased, the demand side has gradually entered the peak season. The supply and demand pattern is relatively balanced without major contradictions. Under the circumstances of macro warming and strong futures shocks, the PVC market is getting better. It is expected that the trend will continue in the short term, and the follow-up of the demand side needs to be paid attention to in the future.

In August, propane continued to rise, showing a trend of first rising and then consolidation. Affected by the off-season factors, the rise is relatively limited. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on August 1 was 3350.00 yuan / ton, and that on August 31 was 3442.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.76% in the month and a decrease of 33.32% compared with January 1.

The propane Market Trend in August can be divided into two stages

The first stage: in the first ten days of August (8.1-8.19), propane continued to rise slightly. At the beginning of the month, good news from the market continued to support the continuous rise of propane. The main reasons for this are: CP price rose slightly in August, propylene butane increased by 5 US dollars / ton, and the cost of imported gas remained high. During this period, the international crude oil fluctuated and the market mentality was favorable. The third reason was that the output of domestic refineries decreased and the market supply decreased, which brought strong support to the market. Propane as a fuel, and its related civil gas rose steadily, which brought about market improvement Vibration is the fourth. Downstream bullish mentality in the market is more positive, the market transaction atmosphere is mild, the upstream inventory is mostly in the low position operation, the mentality is relatively strong. Among them, the price of North China and North China is relatively strong.

The second stage: in the middle and late August (8.19-8.31), the market showed a horizontal trend. At this stage, the trend of propane market is weak, but the decline range is limited due to the high cost support of air intake. As the off-season factors still exist, the terminal demand needs to be improved, and as the price continues to push up, the downstream demand is limited, and the resistance is increased. After the early replenishment, it is mainly off market and wait-and-see, and the mentality is more cautious. Compared with the previous period, the atmosphere of market transaction was obviously weakened, the manufacturers’ shipment was blocked, and the inventory was gradually increased. In order to stimulate the downstream market entry, there were profit making operations.

As of August 31, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification August 31

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 952850-3250 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953250-3460 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3350-3450 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 952950-3070 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953100-3350 yuan / ton

Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3530-3800 yuan / ton

In August, there were some differences between the north and the south of China’s propane Market. The northern market was mostly strong and rising, while the southern market had a strong upward resistance, with a downward trend and a relatively low price.

Upstream, international crude oil: the international crude oil price rose in August, and the WTI crude oil futures price rose by 7.15%. The international crude oil market continues to release good news. The U.S. crude oil inventory has been greatly reduced, the US crude oil inventory has been greatly reduced, and the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) has put pressure on the oil producing countries whose output exceeds the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. As a result, a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were forced to shut down and crude oil production was reduced.

Civil use of liquefied petroleum gas: in August, the LPG market continued the rising trend in July, and the center of gravity continued to move upward. There were more favorable conditions in the month, which supported the market to rise again. However, due to the traditional off-season has not passed, the market is still negative factors, the road to rise is more difficult, showing a volatile upward trend in the month.

On the downstream side, the propylene market fluctuated periodically in August, with a breakthrough in the price range at the beginning of the month. During the period from the beginning of May to the end of May, the prices of some small enterprises have remained stable from the first round of May to the end of May, but they have continued to rise from the first round of May to the end of October Most manufacturers still keep their prices stable. On the 29th, the prices dropped by about 50 yuan / ton, and then continued to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 6880 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

In terms of the international market, Saudi Aramco announced CP in September 2020, with propane at $365 / T, stable compared with the previous month; butane at $355 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

At present, the trend of international crude oil is uncertain, which brings limited support to the market. However, CP rose steadily in September, which brought some support to the market. Moreover, the off-season in August has passed, and September and October are about to usher in the traditional sales peak season. The terminal demand is expected to increase, and with the high support of import costs, September may rise or become a foregone conclusion. However, due to the time required for market demand and the increase or limitation, it is expected that the market will rise steadily in the short term.

In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated upward, and on August 21, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil market ushered in an upward adjustment. During the peak gasoline demand season in August, the gasoline price fluctuated and rose; affected by the rainfall, the demand for diesel oil in southern China was in a gradual recovery period, and the price of diesel oil fell steadily. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on August 31 was 5551 yuan / ton, up 1.57% from the beginning of the month; on August 31, the price of diesel oil was 4830 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from the beginning of the week.

In August, the international crude oil market continued to release good news. The US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, the US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) meeting “put pressure on the oil producing countries whose production exceeded the target, requiring them to further reduce production from August to September. The impact of the hurricane forced a large number of offshore drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico to be shut down, resulting in crude oil production Lower. International crude oil prices rose in August, with WTI crude oil futures up 7.15%.

In terms of gasoline, since the middle of August, the domestic hot weather has decreased, the terminal demand for gasoline has maintained a just demand, and the international crude oil price has fluctuated upward. However, the domestic oil product market is not willing to push up, and low-cost shipment is the main factor, and the price of refined oil market only rises slightly. In terms of diesel oil, the terminal demand of diesel oil in southern China began to recover gradually in the first ten days of August, but the support for diesel market was not obvious, and the domestic industrial and mining, outdoor construction, transportation and so on maintained the rigid demand level. The price of diesel oil market remained stable and fell slightly.

In August, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased first and then increased, but the overall operating load of the refinery was about 71% – 75%, and the domestic oil product output remained at a high level.

Lu Xingjun, a refined oil analyst at the business club, said: in August, the international crude oil market continued to be positive and stimulating, but the overall international crude oil market remained stable and did not form a continuous upward trend. It is expected that the crude oil price in September will still fluctuate at a high level. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver and ten, the price of refined oil is expected to rise slightly in September.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week. As of the 28th day, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 4987.5 yuan / ton, which was 1.27% higher than the price of 4925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.94%. The market price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly due to normal supply and demand.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride was in general, the demand of downstream in the near future was general, the price of orthobenzene remained stable, the market of plasticizer was mainly volatile, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride rose slightly. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers generally start their operations, and the on-site operating rate of phthalic anhydride is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The on-site merchants have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the exchange market is stable. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China rose slightly, with limited high-end transactions. In East China, the main source negotiation of neighboring France was RMB 5000-5100 / T, and that of naphthalene process was 4700-4900 yuan / T; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China was 5000-5100 yuan / T, and the market outlook of phthalic anhydride was still in the market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was higher.

This week, the domestic o-benzene price remained low, and the floor price remained at 4400 yuan / T. the low price of domestic o-benzene was a big negative effect on the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the fluctuation of import o-benzene market in the port area led to the stable external quotation of o-benzene. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation. The actual list was discussed in detail. In addition, there was a strong wait-and-see mood of the o-benzene merchants, the low price of o-benzene and raw materials The low price of o-benzene is unfavorable to the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the market price increase of phthalic anhydride is limited.

This week, the trend of DOP market price in the downstream of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price was 7000 yuan / ton as of the 28th day, which was the same as the price of 7000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The price of isooctyl alcohol in the field fluctuated at a low level. The operation of DOP device was stable, and the spot supply was sufficient. The DOP market price remained at a low level. The market of plasticizer industry is weak, DOP market quotation is 6800-7100 yuan / ton, the turnover of plasticizer in the market is reduced, and the downstream market is poor. Affected by the negative effects, the domestic phthalic anhydride market price is mainly volatile.

On the whole, the crude oil price is mainly fluctuating in recent years, and the price of this week is slightly higher. In addition, the domestic orthobenzene price is stable, but the domestic plasticizer industry is depressed, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is stable and rising.

In the future, the domestic o-benzene price trend is mainly volatile, but the plasticizer trading market is not good, the plasticizer price change is not big, the future DOP price trend is weak, it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market price will remain stable next week.

Product Name: calcium carbide

Latest price (August 26): 2740.00 yuan / ton

On August 26, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on August 14. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

The spot price of aniline in the market rose slightly this week. On August 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4250-4430 yuan / ton, while that in East China was 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the listed price of pure benzene on Sunday (August 23) was 3000-3450 yuan / ton (the average price was 3390 yuan / ton), and the average price was 50 yuan / ton, or 1.45% lower than last week. This week, the decline of pure benzene in northern China was obvious, and the restart of downstream maintenance equipment was delayed, which caused pressure on the supply and demand side of the north. The listed price of pure benzene in North China of Sinopec was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, while no adjustment was made in other regions. The market is waiting for Sinopec’s price guidance. This week, pure benzene port inventory is still high, but unloading pressure is reduced.

The price of nitric acid went down again this week. On the 14th, the price in East China was 1516.67 yuan / ton, and on the 21st was 1500 yuan / ton, down 16.67 yuan / ton or 1.1% compared with last week.

East China enterprises to implement contract orders, spot prices driven by a small rise.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the weakness of downstream demand is more obvious, which has a great drag on the pure benzene market. In addition, the port inventory is still high, so the short-term pure benzene market remains weak. In the later stage, it focused on Sinopec’s listing price adjustment and downstream operating load changes.

The demand of downstream factories has not been greatly improved. Shandong enterprises are mainly engaged in destocking at stable prices, while those in East China mainly supply ships and execute contracts. Aniline prices are expected to remain stable next week.

This week, the market is good, and the national general rise was implemented on the 18th and 21st, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton. At present, the latest price of mainstream East China is 7000 yuan / ton.

Some enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the ethylene oxide plant of Sanjiang Letian (100000 tons) and Jiangsu oak (200000 tons) overhauled. As a result, market supply pressure was reduced and regional resources were tight. In addition, the consumption of downstream monomers increased, prices continued to rise, manufacturers’ inventory was low, and the market transaction atmosphere began to be active, forming an upward adjustment window. Ethylene narrow range shock, weak consolidation, raw material price stagflation, cost support is weak, and ethylene oxide profit margin is improved. Ethylene glycol is affected by the demand side, the price rises, and the fundamental support is strong.

According to market participants, the price of epoxy continued to rise on the 25th, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton and the implementation of 7200 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon was 10733 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10733 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was stable.

Products: the domestic price of activated carbon is stable temporarily. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7500-11000 yuan / ton; most of the domestic activated carbon prices are stable, the market transaction is light, and the orders are mostly on demand, and the total transaction volume is limited.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is fair; the cost support of coal based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy has boosted the activated carbon market. The overall market demand is fair, the volume of sales is average, and the transaction atmosphere is cold.

Forecast: the transaction in the spot market of activated carbon is general, and the quotation of merchants is mostly stable, which lacks the support of favorable conditions, and pays more attention to the downstream transaction. It is expected that the activated carbon market will be stable.

The international crude oil price continues to fluctuate at a high level. The rainy weather in China this week affected the demand of gasoline market. The MTBE market purchased on demand and the market price remained stable. The price of MTBE on August 14 was 3750 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from the price at the beginning of the week, according to the business agency.

This week, domestic rainy weather increased, gasoline terminal demand remained rigid demand, coupled with the lack of action on the international oil price, the downstream was mainly low-cost replenishment. As a result, the replenishment intention of MTBE and other intermediate materials is relatively negative, and MTBE manufacturers’ shipment is not smooth, and the market is weak and stable.

At present, the start-up load of MTBE unit is slightly lower than that of last week, and MTBE output is slightly reduced compared with last week, but it has little impact on the overall supply of MTBE market.

According to the MTBE product analysts of energy branch of business agency, the international crude oil price will continue to maintain a fluctuating upward trend; in addition, with the arrival of the traditional peak season of gold, silver and ten, gasoline demand will increase, which is favorable to the MTBE market price. It is expected that the domestic MTBE market price will show a fluctuating upward trend.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price (August 17): 7200 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on August 17, the trading atmosphere of domestic isopropanol market was general, the export advantage weakened, and the favorable foreign trade slowed down. The price of raw material acetone decreased significantly, and the cost support was insufficient. Domestic isopropanol downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, take goods very carefully, turnover is very few.

Forecast: the price of isopropanol is likely to continue to fall in the short term.