1、 Price data

As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic hydrotreating and hydrotreating naphtha was 4917.50 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 4782.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha was about 5000 yuan / ton.

The naphtha commodity index on November 27 was 60.69, up 0.25 points compared with yesterday, 40.86% lower than 102.62 points (2012-09-24), and 43.68% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices continue to rise this week, low inventory, no pressure to ship.

Upstream: in November, the international oil price continued to rise, and has been rising for four consecutive weeks. On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation. WTI crude oil prices rose 7.76% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 6.20%.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market fluctuated slightly and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3580 yuan / ton, up 1.13% month on month. The domestic xylene market showed a volatile trend this week. As of Friday, the domestic market average price was about 3640 yuan / ton, up 0.28% month on month. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 545 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 563 US dollars / ton CFR China.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector’s rise and fall list of commodity prices in the 47th week of 2020 (11.23-11.27), among which there are 3 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the total commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities of increase are liquefied natural gas (8.51%), WTI crude oil (7.76%) and Brent crude oil (6.29%). There were two kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products were petroleum coke (- 5.88%) and methanol (- 0.35%). This week, the average rise and fall was 2.51%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the sharp rise in international crude oil has supported the cost of naphtha. At present, the inventory of refineries is low and the pressure on shipment is not great. It is expected that the price of hydrotreated naphtha in the near future will rise steadily, with the price of about 5100 yuan / ton.