1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of toluene in the domestic market rose this week and fell slightly near the end of the week, with the price of toluene at 3722 yuan / ton on December 6 and 3860 yuan / ton on Sunday (December 13), up 138 yuan / ton or 6.58% compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of the week, driven by the rise in the price of refined oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of toluene price, which is expected to be better. In the second half of the week, both sides of the market offered lower bid intention, while the price of gasoline was loose, and the market wait-and-see sentiment increased. During the week, the listed price of toluene in North China and central China of Sinopec rose 150 yuan / ton, 200 yuan / ton in South China and 50 yuan / ton in East China. Port inventory is still at a high level, so the pressure of de stocking is great. Lower market weakness, drag toluene Market.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose rapidly after falling this week, fell back on Friday and rose overall compared with last week. The sharp increase of new epidemic cases in Europe and the United States has led to a decline in the crude oil market mentality. On Wednesday, Pfizer vaccine made new progress and prices rebounded rapidly. Compared with December 4, Brent rose 1.155 USD / barrel, or 2.36%; WTI rose 0.33 USD / barrel, or 0.71%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 25.07%, and WTI decreased by 23.07%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price is relatively stable this week, and the price of domestic products is 12700 yuan / ton. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere is cold, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, and the future market is weak.

In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, which was stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.82%. PX prices rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the Asian PX market closed at $567-569 / T FOB Korea and $585-587 / T CFR China. The rising trend of external price is expected to bring some positive support to the domestic market.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction implementation, total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the new progress of R & D, U.S. dollar and the situation in the Middle East. Pay attention to the late vaccine and the new progress of the US economic stimulus plan, as well as the impact of the gradual increase in OPEC + production, as well as the changes in downstream demand. At present, the toluene market is short of other favorable aspects, and the upward breakthrough resistance is large. Overall, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the range of toluene next week.