On February 1, international oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising more than 2%. Data showed that the settlement price of WTI crude oil in the United States was $53.55/barrel, up $1.35. Brent crude oil futures settlement price at 56.35 U.S. dollars / barrel or 2.59%, or 1.31 U.S. dollars or 2.34%. Due to the decline of crude oil inventory in the United States, the effective production reduction continuously promoted by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) and the rising fuel demand caused by the snowstorm in the northeast of the United States, many favorable factors weakened the impact of the epidemic in the short term, and the market rose significantly on Monday.

First of all, the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories is the direct reason for the rise in oil prices. Although the data released last week did not give a strong boost to oil prices, mainly due to the impact of epidemic concerns, there are signs that crude oil inventories may decline again this week, which brings more benefits to the market. The data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) the previous week showed that the US crude oil inventory may decline again in the week of January 22 China’s commercial crude oil inventories fell 9.9 million barrels to 476.7 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 430000 barrels.

Analysts’ judgment is mainly due to the impact of cold weather brought by snowstorms in the United States, and the rapid rise in fuel demand has significantly supported oil prices. The northeast of the United States is suffering from a strong winter blizzard, which mainly affects a large area from Pennsylvania to New England, and has a serious impact on New York City and other major urban centers. Therefore, the demand for fuel in winter suddenly rises when the weather turns cold, and the inventory in Cushing area of the United States is expected to continue to decline.

In addition, at present, the effect of OPEC + production reduction policy is remarkable, and the implementation rate of production reduction is high. OPEC + has maintained a high implementation rate of production reduction since December last year, and OPEC’s production growth in January was less than expected. News shows that OPEC + production reduction implementation rate in December 2020 is 99%. Among them, the implementation rates of OPEC and its allies in December 2020 are 103% and 93% respectively, with Saudi Arabia playing the most obvious role. Russia’s oil and condensate production in January increased by 120000 B / D to 10160000 B / D compared with the previous month. Russia once said that it would increase production by 125000 B / D in January. Therefore, the increase rate in this month is generally in line with the expectation, but lower than the increase scale in the first half of January.

According to the business community, at present, crude oil is still in the state of long short game. Under the background that the epidemic trend has not yet been reversed, it may be difficult for oil prices to have a big market under this restriction. Many countries are still implementing restrictive measures, especially in the aviation field, which is seriously hit. The demand for aviation fuel is still difficult to improve in the short term. At the same time, the extreme cold weather in the United States in winter will continue to boost the demand for heating fuel oil. The supply side is mainly rebalancing, OPEC + production reduction is continuing, and Libya’s production is also declining, which will balance the risks of the supply side. However, the rise of shale oil production in the United States is still the main uncertain factor of future crude oil supply. Recent data show that the number of active oil and gas rigs in U.S. energy companies has increased for 10 weeks in a row, and the increase of crude oil production in the United States is expected to rise significantly Wen. On the whole, the oil price may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment in the near future. If vaccination can speed up and the virus inhibition efficiency is obvious, there is a greater probability that the oil price will continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week, and the overall price rose compared with last week. On January 24, the price of pure benzene was 4180-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4490 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 31), the price of pure benzene was 4330-4800 yuan / ton (average price was 4626 yuan / ton), up 136 yuan / ton or 3.03% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 150 yuan / ton to 4800 yuan / ton. Due to the impact of public health events and the impact of low price hydrogenated benzene in northern China, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, and the North South arbitrage window opened. The inflow of low-cost goods in North China, coupled with the reduction of logistics in the early spring festival, led to the rebound of pure benzene market price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 2000 tons compared with last week. The port’s pick-up was limited, and the inventory decline was small.

In terms of external market, the range of external market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. On Friday (January 29), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 659 US dollars / ton, up 3.33 US dollars / ton or 0.51% compared with January 22, and the reference price of import in East China was 662.5 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton or 1.69% compared with January 22.

In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to make compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic situation was still severe, curbing the demand of the crude oil market. On January 22, Brent fell 0.095 USD / barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell 0.19 USD / barrel, or 0.36%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene rebounded, showing an overall upward performance. On Friday (January 29), the price of sample enterprises was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 66.66 yuan / ton or 0.98% compared with last Friday, and down 4.84% compared with the same period last year. This week, the average operating rate of domestic styrene plants rose to 82.66% from 78.97% last week, up 3.69%. At present, the profit margin of styrene is good, and the cost support is still weak. The downstream still keeps considerable profits, and the market is expected to reserve some goods before the Spring Festival.

Aniline: the capacity of some aniline plants is restored, Jiangsu Fuqiang is expected to ship, and the market supply may increase in the later stage, so the operators are cautious. This week aniline Market Stability consolidation. On January 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market is not good enough, and there is great upward pressure, but the price is still high and volatile. Continue to pay attention to the US fiscal stimulus plan, global COVID-19 and OPEC+ related news on promoting production reduction.

Downstream: downstream enterprises of styrene mainly digest rigid demand contracts and pre low orders, and the demand for spot goods is low. In addition, the downstream production has been reduced before the festival, and there is great uncertainty about returning to the market after the festival, so the demand for styrene may further weaken.

Ningbo Zhongjin delayed the restart time, and the market supply is expected to decrease by the end of February. Near the Spring Festival, some downstream terminals have been shut down one after another, and the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is on the high side, so the demand for pure benzene is weakening. Benzene and its downstream are expected to enter consolidation period next week, and the price is expected to be relatively stable. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, the trend of pure benzene plant, crude oil, external market and styrene.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of January 29, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14000 yuan / ton, which was the same as the previous day, and decreased by 2.33% compared with 14333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 22.94% compared with the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, as of January 29, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 19166.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, and increased by 12.38% compared with 17500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and decreased by 15.71% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, on January 29, the price trend of refrigerant R22 was stable, and the market was stable and weak. Chloroform continued to decline, with a decrease of 31.51% in the month. The support of cost side was weakened, combined with the end of preparation of downstream products a year ago. Traders continued to withdraw from the market. The demand side continued to decline, the market center moved down, and the bearish sentiment of the industry was too much. At present, R22 market quotation was around 13500-15000 yuan / ton, Shandong quotation was about 14000 yuan / ton, Zhejiang quotation was about 14000-15000 yuan / ton The quoted price in Hunan is about 14000-14500 / T, and that in Shanghai is about 14000 yuan / T. The short-term price is stable.

R134a, January 29 refrigerant R134a price trend is stable, stable in strong operation. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, with a rise of 7.76% in the month. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak in the off-season. The acceptance of the recent price rise of R134a was limited, and the downstream construction continued to decline near the end of the year. At the same time, the power rationing and shutdown in some regions reduced the demand. At present, the quotation of R134a market is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / T, Shandong is about 20000 yuan / T, and Zhejiang is about 20000 yuan / T The quotation is about 19000-21500 / T, Hunan 20500-21000 / T, Jiangsu 22000 / T and Shanghai 20000 yuan / T. The short-term price is stable.

Hydrofluoric acid as raw material. On January 28, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants rose slightly. Domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the rising price of fluorite, but the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was general, and on-site purchase was mainly on demand. It is expected that the on-site price will rise slightly in the later stage High.

Trichloromethane. In January, the market of trichloromethane in Shandong was negative, and the price of trichloromethane fell sharply. As of January 28, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 2500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 31.51% in the month. At present, the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market of chloroform market is relatively high, and the demand for chloroform is relatively weak. In addition, the price of raw materials in the upstream is declining, which leads to a sharp drop in the price of chloroform. It is expected that the market of chloroform will be weak in a short period of time.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business community, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream users will have holidays and work stoppages, and the demand will gradually stagnate. Some refrigerant enterprises will close their orders and stop reporting. The main supply order will not be much discussed. It is expected that the refrigerant price will be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 29, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 5833.33 yuan / ton. This week, the market of PET bottle chips was stable, and the price did not change significantly. Near the Spring Festival holiday, most enterprises entered the holiday mode and took orders sporadically. Now the price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 5800-5900 yuan / ton, and the trading atmosphere is general.

This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip market is running smoothly, the cost support is general, the inventory is low, the shipment is smooth, the overall market negotiation focus is stable, and the transaction atmosphere is flat. Near the Spring Festival, workers have a holiday one after another, and the operating rate has decreased. The polyester bottle chip market just needs capital to move goods, and the downstream demand is poor. Most enterprises have entered the holiday mode, mainly sporadic orders.

PTA operation in the upstream was stable and weak this week, market operation rate was stable, ethylene glycol in the upstream was stable and rising, the negotiation center was on the high side, and the cost side support of polyester bottle chip was general.

On January 28, the rubber and plastic index was 710 points, flat with yesterday, down 33.02% from the highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14) in the cycle, and up 34.47% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community pet analysts believe that: in the short term, the pet market will maintain a stable operation. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business pet analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

Recently, the domestic market of cyclohexanone is mainly on the lookout. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of January 28, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 7033 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 0.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%. Pure benzene runs horizontally, the cost side support is relatively stable, downstream just need to purchase mainly, logistics and transportation rise, the market is stable, and the transaction is light.

Region, price

East China: 7600-7700 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China: 7750-7850 yuan / ton, cash delivery of vehicle

Shandong area: 7400-7500 yuan / ton, the whole vehicle is delivered in cash

The cost is relatively stable, the factory has no inventory pressure for the time being, and the downstream purchases on demand. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will be stable in the short term.

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (January 27): 18266.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of NBR was 18266.67 yuan / ton on the 27th, down 0.72% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw butadiene continued to fall, and the cost side was weak. According to the business news agency, as of January 27, the price of butadiene was 6057 yuan / ton. On the other hand, under the influence of environmental protection policies, some downstream factories have stopped work or reduced their load in the near future, the demand for NBR is weak, the price of NBR has dropped, and the ex factory price of some manufacturers has been lowered. On the 26th, the ex factory price of NBR in shunze of Ningbo was lowered by 1500 yuan / T, the ex factory price of shunze 3355 was 16500 yuan / T, and the market mainstream was around 17000 yuan / T.

Future forecast: the cost side is weakening, the demand side is weakening, and the Spring Festival is approaching, it is expected that the NBR market price will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong fell from 10750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.19%, up 48.92% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol fell this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 75.74 on January 22.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical quoted 10000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Lihuayi quoted 9900 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 750 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 11000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose this week, with the quoted price rising from 7465.64 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7486.36 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.28%, and a year-on-year increase of 9.01%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell slightly. DOP quotation fell from 9475.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9425.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.53%, up 29.11% year on year. The price of downstream DOP fell, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase octanol weakened, the demand for octanol was general, and the future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, and the octanol supply was normal. Business community octanol analysts believe that: in late January, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of octanol market in Shandong, octanol market may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the dichloromethane market in Shandong has been strong and upward recently. As of January 25, the average price in Shandong was about 3780 yuan / ton, up 0.8% from last week and 8% from the beginning of this month.

In recent years, the market in Shandong Province has a strong high level, and the overall market has started steadily. Due to the centralized stock preparation in the downstream market before the festival, and the self use of Dongyue products, the spot supply of dichloromethane is tight, and the market price is firm and upward. At present, the price of dichloromethane is about 3720-3780 yuan / ton in Shandong, 3800 yuan / ton in East China and 3650 yuan / ton in Jiangxi.

The raw material methanol market is in a downward shock. The mainland’s olefin procurement in Northwest China is shrinking and the demand in Hebei and Shandong is weak. Some road sections are blocked, which affects the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi. However, the impact degree is uncertain, which is about 2335 yuan / ton at present. The liquid chlorine market is stable, the transportation capacity of the industry is limited, and the shipment of enterprises is slowing down The epidemic situation rebounded in some areas and the market demand was flat. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 500-600 yuan / ton.

The market trend of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, but the automobile industry continued to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere was light. The supply of goods on the floor is sufficient, and the market will be affected by new production capacity in the future. The competition is fierce. The supply side is gradually bad, and the price is slightly higher, but the downstream demand is not significantly improved. The solvent, pharmaceutical and pesticide industries start flat, and the support for dichloromethane is general.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the concentration of dichloromethane in the downstream market continues, the market supply is stable and tight, and the enterprise warehouse pressure is not large. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be strong in a short time.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to rise after new year’s day. As of the 22nd, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10070 yuan / ton, up 5.67% compared with 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decline of 1.66%.

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly rising. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is slightly tight, and the floor price continues to rise.

First of all, the market price of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose. As of the 22nd, the domestic price of fluorite was 2730 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.41% in January. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight. With the decrease of temperature, some manufacturers in the North stopped their plants, and the supply in the yard was slightly tight. The domestic price of fluorite rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite on the floor is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rises due to the positive support.

The domestic refrigerant market rose slightly. Recently, the sales market of the automobile industry has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The trend of the refrigerant industry has increased, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the refrigerant export volume has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 13500-16000 yuan / ton. The market trend of domestic R134a rose slightly, but the auto industry continued to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere was light. The supply of goods on the floor is sufficient, and the market will be affected by new production capacity in the future. The competition is fierce, and the supply side is gradually bad. The price is slightly higher, but the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher.

Third: the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are overhauled in the hydrofluoric acid yard, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is 9600-10500 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly rising, and the manufacturers reflect that they are bullish in the near future, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period has a greater driving force.

In general, due to the high price of raw material fluorite, the price of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, and the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. Supported by multiple positive factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the ethyl acetate market continued to rise due to the sharp rise in the cost side and the centralized stocking of downstream products. As of January 20, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 7675 yuan / ton, up 16.73% from the same period last week and 8.48% from the beginning of this month.

Affected by the continuous high price of raw material acetic acid, the cost side support of ethyl acetate is strong. In addition, the downstream market concentrates on pre holiday stock, and the market supply is tight. The overall transaction in the industry is positive. With the completion of enterprise maintenance, the future supply is expected to increase. At present, it is about 7800-7900 yuan / ton in East China, 7600-7700 yuan / ton in North China and 8100-8200 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. Affected by the reduction of enterprise maintenance burden and downstream centralized stock preparation, the spot supply of acetic acid market was reduced, and the trade and investment in the industry were in good condition. In some areas, it was difficult to obtain one product, and the supply side gap could not be effectively made up in a short time. In terms of ethanol, the price of corn continues to rise, traders and farmers are reluctant to sell, and the short-term price remains high. At present, the price of ethanol in East China is about 7312 yuan / ton.

Ethyl acetate analysts of business news agency believe that the current domestic ethyl acetate Market is in short supply, the market demand is stable, and the cost side continues to rise. The double benefits support the strong operation of the ethyl acetate Market. It is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will remain strong before the end of the month.