Since the middle of November, the price of natural rubber has stabilized and rebounded, and the position gradually transits to the contract in May, and the market remains stable. At present, natural rubber fundamentals remain healthy as a whole, which has a certain supporting effect on the price.
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macroscopic
Recently, the process of power transition in the United States has started, and Biden will take office in the White House on January 20, 2021. An important short-term uncertainty has been eliminated. At present, the policy orientation and personnel arrangement announced by Biden team are more or less the shadow of the Obama era. The new Biden administration will be the successor and successor of the Obama administration at least in the early stage, with strong policy predictability, and the loose monetary policy environment of the Federal Reserve will continue at least until the third quarter of next year.
At present, Sino US relations are crucial to the recovery of world economic growth. Biden team believes that it is impractical and counterproductive to fully decouple from China. This is consistent with the view of the Chinese government. Sino US relations are likely to turn into a situation of both competition and cooperation, which will be milder than in the trump period, which is conducive to the recovery of the world economy after the epidemic. However, it is not appropriate to have too much extravagant expectation on Sino US relations. The new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation is exactly the government’s initiative response to the challenges.
supply
Yunnan, the main natural rubber production area in China, will gradually enter the cutting stop period, and Hainan will also enter the cutting stop period in about one month. At present, the planting area of rubber producing areas in China is relatively stable. Due to the early epidemic situation, price and weather factors, the overall cutting rate is low this year.
In addition to the yield factor, the glue structure also faces some adjustments. The new concentrated latex project of Yunnan manganese Rubber Co., Ltd. was completed and put into operation, with an investment of 710 million yuan in the first phase, with an annual production capacity of 20000 tons of concentrated latex, 2000 tons of clear rubber, 150000 beds of latex pads and 1 million latex pillows per year. Part of the rubber water in Yunnan production area must be diverted to make latex, which has an impact on the production of all latex delivery products.
Affected by the shortage of labor and transportation bottleneck caused by weather and epidemic situation, the annual output of the main production areas in Southeast Asia is more likely to decline. According to the statistical data of the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC), the global cumulative production of natural rubber from January to September in 2020 is 7.816 million tons, which is about 600000 tons lower than that in the same period of 2019; from January to September of 2020, the cumulative production of natural rubber in China is 426000 tons, which is 104000 tons lower than that in the same period of 2019, with a decrease rate of 20%.
However, more than 2000 workers in the world’s largest rubber glove supplier in Malaysia have been confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus. The Malaysian government ordered the closure of 28 factories and dormitories affiliated to the company step by step and implemented isolation and virus screening. At present, the main production areas of Southeast Asia are in the period of seasonal high yield, and the repeated epidemic situation has cast a shadow on the industry.
stock
According to the data released in the previous period, as of November 20, the natural rubber inventory of the exchange was 142000 tons, with a quarter on month decrease of 119000 tons, or 45%. With the expiration of the contract in November, the inventory of the new rubber warehouse receipt after the delivery of the old rubber was at the low level in the past years, and the delivery products were less, which continued to affect the futures price.
On November 23, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued the business guidelines for the trading of natural rubber extended warehouse receipts (for Trial Implementation). The extended warehouse receipts refer to the natural rubber warehouse receipts issued by the designated delivery warehouse recognized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which have exceeded the validity period of the standard warehouse receipts and meet the time limit recognized by the exchange. The development of extended warehouse receipt business will further enrich the ability of the exchange to serve the real economy and enhance the pricing authority of the exchange. However, on the other hand, it may weaken the disturbance weight of factors such as insufficient delivery on the price.
In the spot market, the rubber inventory in Qingdao has maintained a downward trend in the near future, and the inventory pressure at the spot side has slightly eased, but the inventory de stocking process may not be smooth sailing.
demand
The national Standing Committee announced in mid November that the strategy of expanding domestic demand should be implemented to further promote consumption. In terms of automobiles, all localities will be encouraged to increase the number plate index. We will carry out a new round of automobile going to the countryside and exchanging old cars for new ones. We will encourage rural residents in areas where conditions permit to buy trucks of 3.5 tons or less and passenger cars with displacement of 1.6 liters or less. We will also give subsidies to residents who have eliminated the emission standards of National III or below and purchased new cars. In the new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation, policy support is conducive to the release of demand. However, in the international aspect, due to some bottleneck problems in transportation, tire export may be affected in the short term.
Statistics show that the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers last week was 71.19%, and that of all steel tire manufacturers was 74.04%. The overall situation was relatively stable, and the demand remained stable.
To sum up, at present, the short-term uncertainty on the macro level is basically eliminated, the phenomenon of output decline and glue structure adjustment at the supply side, domestic policy support to promote automobile consumption at the demand side, the overall situation of the fundamentals is relatively healthy, and the rubber price will still be supported.
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