Since September, bisphenol A has entered the downward channel. From tepid trading to weak demand, the market has declined in a narrow range to a sharp decline. As can be seen from the figure below, bisphenol a market has declined for four consecutive weeks, and bisphenol A is expected to continue to decline in the last few days of the month. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average market offer was 28040 yuan / ton on September 1, and the average market close was 24180 yuan / ton on September 25, a decrease of 13.77%. On September 25, the bisphenol a commodity index was 233.49, down 2.08 points from yesterday, down 17.55% from the highest point 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 223.89% from the lowest point 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now)

The related product ECH soared, eroding the decline of bisphenol A and spitting out the cost space

In September, ECH soared. Affected by the “double control”, some units reduced their load and shut down, the overall operating rate of the market declined, and the shortage of goods sources intensified. The “double festival” is approaching. The downstream market quotation rose sharply because there is still a demand for goods preparation due to early orders. With the price rising to a high level, the downstream just needs to follow up passively. According to the monitoring data of business society, On September 24, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 143.60, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 206.51% from the lowest point of 46.85 on September 7, 2016. With the further rise of ECH and the continuous squeeze of bisphenol a space, the bearish atmosphere in the market increased. Middlemen actively followed the market and actively followed the import and export goods. Under the guidance of the auction price of East China Zhejiang Petrochemical every Wednesday, the decline continued to amplify. As of the closing on the 24th, some traders had said they would not offer any more, falling by nearly 1000 yuan in one day, and the market offered to 24000 yuan / ton. The sharp rise of raw material ECH led to a sharp increase in the cost of epoxy resin. Driven by the cost, epoxy resin had to be overestimated, but bisphenol A had to callback and give up part of the cost space.

Under the “dual control”, the operating rate of downstream epoxy resin decreased and the demand shrank

Under the influence of “double control”, chemical enterprises are under full pressure, epichlorohydrin and epoxy resin factories are also forced to reduce the negative production, the operating rate is reduced, the demand for raw materials is bound to be reduced, the cost side is significantly higher, the downstream follow-up speed is far less than the upstream space of raw materials, the profit space is under pressure, the factory has reduced the burden, just needs small order procurement, and the mentality of bisphenol A holders is unstable, Bisphenol A accelerated its decline as a result of positive profit making shipments and the killing of related product ECH and downstream demand. As of the 24th, the offer of bisphenol a market in East China was 24000-24300 yuan / ton, and the offer of bisphenol a market in North China was 24000-24500 yuan / ton. However, there was little demand in the field regardless of the offer.

East China Zhejiang Petrochemical went down in the auction for four consecutive weeks, guiding the continuous decline of bisphenol a market

The auction of every Wednesday in East China Petrochemical Company (the official account number of bisphenol A product station announces auction price) has a greater impact on bisphenol A market offer. According to the monitoring data of business society, the auction ended at 27800 yuan / ton on September 1, which basically met the market expectations at that time. In the first week, the market performance of bisphenol A was tepid, the mainstream offer in the market was 28100-28300 yuan / ton, and profit giving shippers gradually appeared at the weekend. In the second week, the auction reached 27400 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 400 yuan / ton. The downstream epoxy resin and PC end showed weak performance this week, and the demand for raw materials was mainly just demand. The market looked at the warming of the air atmosphere, and the offer was 27500-27700 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend. In the third week, the auction reached 26500 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton month on month. This week, it was mainly due to the sharp rise of ECH, which greatly inhibited the enthusiasm of epoxy resin for purchasing bisphenol A products. The operating rate in the downstream also fell under the influence of dual control, and most factories mainly consumed inventory. In the fourth week, the auction price was 24600 yuan / ton, and the decline was amplified again, aggravating the bearish atmosphere in the market. As of Friday’s closing, the on-site offer was 24000 yuan / ton.

At the end of the month, the cost fell, accelerating the decline of bisphenol a market

In the fourth week of September, the raw material phenol and acetone market turned around and fell. This week, pure benzene moved in a wide range, the cost support weakened, and returned to the market in the Mid Autumn Festival. There was no stock mood before the long holiday in the market. The supplier’s profit making and shipment were not smooth, and the center of gravity continued to decline. In addition, domestic factories concentrated on reducing the listing prices of phenol and acetone, and the raw material end support fell again, As a downstream product of bisphenol A, it is difficult to escape.

The operating rate of domestic bisphenol a unit is as follows:

To sum up, bisphenol a market fell in September against the sharp rise of the chemical industry, and the current decline is difficult to stop. Next week is approaching the preparation period before the National Day holiday. At present, the high level of ECH of related products remains stable, and the downstream epoxy resin is also expected to be corrected. However, the operating rate of the whole industry has declined as a whole, restraining the purchase demand for upstream raw materials. On the other hand, the operating rate of downstream PC will continue to be difficult to improve. From the perspective of business society, From the demand of wind power industry to the operating rate of epoxy resin industry in the later stage, it is the key to the trend of bisphenol a market. In the short term, bisphenol a market continues to operate weakly, mainly with interval fluctuations.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride rose. As of the 23rd, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7312.5 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site was tight and the sales situation was general.

The recent market price trend of phthalic anhydride is mainly rising, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the upstream orthobenzene price trend remains stable, and the plasticizer market fluctuates and decreases. Due to the impact of dual control, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers maintained a low level, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field was less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, the market price trend rose, the downstream plasticizer industry market was general, and the actual transaction was normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7300-7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 7000-7100 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7300-7400 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The recent plasticizer market is poor, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will still rise in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (September 22): 32166.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 22, the market of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable, the mainstream price of raw hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was stable, and the cost support was ok, but the dual control of energy consumption affected the commencement of enterprises in some areas, the on-site supply was expected to tighten, and the high price of R134a was firm.

R134a price is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from September 10 to September 18, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 110400 yuan / ton to 12780 yuan / ton, an increase of 15.76% during the week, a month on month increase of 19.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.50%.

This week, the cyclohexanone market rose broadly, the price of pure benzene increased significantly, the downstream demand increased, the shutdown and maintenance of Shandong Haili plant, and the commodity volume of cyclohexanone continued to be in short supply. With the dual boost of cost and demand, cyclohexanone manufacturers actively increased, traders followed up, and the trading atmosphere was good.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of September 18:

region ., Price

East China 12900-13100 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 13200-13300 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 12800-12900 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials and pure benzene, pure benzene was listed for 4 times, with a total increase of 7500 yuan / ton, and the quotation rose to 8600 yuan / ton, with strong cost support. In the downstream, caprolactam has a lot of parking and maintenance, and the supply of goods is tight. In addition, the demand for cyclohexanone in the downstream chemical fiber and solvent is increasing near the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday.

The cost support is relatively stable, the supply of cyclohexanone is in short supply, and the downstream follow-up is on demand. The cyclohexanone analysts of business society predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market will still be strong.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the chloroform market was stable this week (9.6-9.10), with the price of 3150 yuan / ton.

The load of domestic methane chloride plant decreased this week.

The price of raw liquid chlorine fluctuated slightly, the price of methanol rose sharply, and the cost support increased. According to the business agency, as of September 10, the price of methanol was 2822 yuan / ton, up 7.93% from 2615 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine of tank car in Shandong Province is about 1100 yuan / ton.

The delivery of downstream refrigerants is slightly higher than that in the early stage, which just needs support for raw materials. In addition, the rising price of refrigerants has a certain bottom dragging effect on the price of chloroform.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that, on the one hand, the commencement of methane chloride units has decreased, and the cost side is still supported. It is expected that the trichloromethane market may rise slightly in the short term.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (September 15): 5450 yuan / ton

On September 15, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased by 33.33 yuan / ton, or 0.62%, compared with the quotation on September 13, and 98.91% compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. The environmental protection inspection in Inner Mongolia was completed, and the output of calcium carbide increased.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 5500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week is 3210.00 yuan / ton. Overall, the potassium chloride market was temporarily stable this week, and the potassium chloride commodity index was 101.90 on September 10.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 3270 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui kaimi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation is 3650 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited.

3、 Future forecast

In mid September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but the domestic available supply is in short supply. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, spot nickel fell slightly on the 13th, and spot nickel was reported at 153383.33 yuan / ton, down 1.11% from the previous trading day. The high correction of nickel price is mainly caused by fear of high prices. Since the end of April, nickel price has been a volatile upward trend. In terms of fundamentals, the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, and the tight supply supports the nickel price. The downstream stainless steel production is constantly limited, multi plant maintenance, and the output in September is low, affecting the demand for nickel. In terms of downstream new energy, the performance is still acceptable. In August, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles and retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased to varying degrees.

Forecast: tight supply support and limited demand for stainless steel. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business society, coking coal prices are still strong. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 3286.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 3520 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 7.1% and 161.39% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are running at a high level.

On September 10, the commodity index of coking coal was 259.78, up 4.92 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 478.45% from the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

According to the business society, in terms of supply, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future. The sales of coal mines in the main producing area is good, and the number of coal pulling vehicles in the mine is not reduced, and most of them are produced and sold immediately. Affected by environmental protection, and although at the beginning of the month, the coal management ticket of the coal mine is sufficient and the output has increased, the supply is still in a tight situation.

Demand: from September 3 to September 10, 2021, the market price of coke in Shanxi increased, with the price at 3438 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3838 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 11.63%. This week, coke has experienced two rounds of increase and landed quickly, with an increase of 200 yuan / ton per round. So far, it has increased for ten rounds, with a cumulative increase of 1360 yuan / ton. In terms of downstream demand, steel mills are not less active in purchasing this week, and they are active in increasing storage. Some steel mills are overhauled, and their demand for coke has decreased slightly. At present, steel mills are still active in purchasing, and the demand for replenishing storage is high.

In the view of coking coal analysts of business society, coking coal is still a strong operating market in the near future. In terms of producing areas, the coal from producing areas has increased recently, but the supply of coking coal from main producing areas is still relatively tight; In terms of downstream coke, the coke price is relatively strong. Under the current situation of strong production restriction and tight coke supply, coke enterprises have a strong mentality of raising prices. Coke still has a strong demand for coke coal replenishment after. Overall, coking coal still has support in the later stage, and the price still maintains a strong trend.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of September 5, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7750 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 30 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7400 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 350 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.73%. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 7100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 650 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.15%.

In the first week of September, the domestic n-propanol market rose and fell. The high-end price of n-propanol in Shandong was slow to ship, and the dealers made downward adjustment to the price. The low-end price of n-propanol increased significantly this week, which is due to the narrowing of the high-low price difference in the market in Shandong. In Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, the overall performance of n-propanol market is relatively stable. The n-propanol production unit of Rongxin chemical operates normally. The external quotation of n-propanol is 8500 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that at the end of August. At present, the overall performance of the domestic n-propanol market increased this week. According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of domestic n-propanol was 7750 yuan / ton at the weekend, with an overall increase of more than 4% during the week compared with the beginning of the week.

In terms of upstream ethylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1062.50/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1090.00/t, up 2.56%. The current price fell 4.13% month on month, and the current price rose 52.45% year-on-year. Recently, the external ethylene market has shown an overall upward trend. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 3rd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1006-1016 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $986-996 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 3rd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1212-1222 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1136-1144 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated and rose. As of the 3rd, the price was US $1026-1044 / T. recently, the overall external ethylene market showed an upward trend, and the recent fluctuation of ethylene in Europe was not large. Ethylene rose periodically in Asia. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene external market is general recently, the market trading atmosphere is OK, and the ethylene market rises slightly.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream demand for n-propanol is relatively stable. After the new n-propanol device is opened by a large factory in Shandong, the external quotation of n-propanol is relatively conservative. The analysts of body business society believe that the low-end price of n-propanol may continue to rise in the later stage, so it may drive the overall market to rise slightly. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.