Since September, bisphenol A has entered the downward channel. From tepid trading to weak demand, the market has declined in a narrow range to a sharp decline. As can be seen from the figure below, bisphenol a market has declined for four consecutive weeks, and bisphenol A is expected to continue to decline in the last few days of the month. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average market offer was 28040 yuan / ton on September 1, and the average market close was 24180 yuan / ton on September 25, a decrease of 13.77%. On September 25, the bisphenol a commodity index was 233.49, down 2.08 points from yesterday, down 17.55% from the highest point 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 223.89% from the lowest point 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now)
The related product ECH soared, eroding the decline of bisphenol A and spitting out the cost space
In September, ECH soared. Affected by the “double control”, some units reduced their load and shut down, the overall operating rate of the market declined, and the shortage of goods sources intensified. The “double festival” is approaching. The downstream market quotation rose sharply because there is still a demand for goods preparation due to early orders. With the price rising to a high level, the downstream just needs to follow up passively. According to the monitoring data of business society, On September 24, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 143.60, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 206.51% from the lowest point of 46.85 on September 7, 2016. With the further rise of ECH and the continuous squeeze of bisphenol a space, the bearish atmosphere in the market increased. Middlemen actively followed the market and actively followed the import and export goods. Under the guidance of the auction price of East China Zhejiang Petrochemical every Wednesday, the decline continued to amplify. As of the closing on the 24th, some traders had said they would not offer any more, falling by nearly 1000 yuan in one day, and the market offered to 24000 yuan / ton. The sharp rise of raw material ECH led to a sharp increase in the cost of epoxy resin. Driven by the cost, epoxy resin had to be overestimated, but bisphenol A had to callback and give up part of the cost space.
Under the “dual control”, the operating rate of downstream epoxy resin decreased and the demand shrank
Under the influence of “double control”, chemical enterprises are under full pressure, epichlorohydrin and epoxy resin factories are also forced to reduce the negative production, the operating rate is reduced, the demand for raw materials is bound to be reduced, the cost side is significantly higher, the downstream follow-up speed is far less than the upstream space of raw materials, the profit space is under pressure, the factory has reduced the burden, just needs small order procurement, and the mentality of bisphenol A holders is unstable, Bisphenol A accelerated its decline as a result of positive profit making shipments and the killing of related product ECH and downstream demand. As of the 24th, the offer of bisphenol a market in East China was 24000-24300 yuan / ton, and the offer of bisphenol a market in North China was 24000-24500 yuan / ton. However, there was little demand in the field regardless of the offer.
East China Zhejiang Petrochemical went down in the auction for four consecutive weeks, guiding the continuous decline of bisphenol a market
The auction of every Wednesday in East China Petrochemical Company (the official account number of bisphenol A product station announces auction price) has a greater impact on bisphenol A market offer. According to the monitoring data of business society, the auction ended at 27800 yuan / ton on September 1, which basically met the market expectations at that time. In the first week, the market performance of bisphenol A was tepid, the mainstream offer in the market was 28100-28300 yuan / ton, and profit giving shippers gradually appeared at the weekend. In the second week, the auction reached 27400 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 400 yuan / ton. The downstream epoxy resin and PC end showed weak performance this week, and the demand for raw materials was mainly just demand. The market looked at the warming of the air atmosphere, and the offer was 27500-27700 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend. In the third week, the auction reached 26500 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton month on month. This week, it was mainly due to the sharp rise of ECH, which greatly inhibited the enthusiasm of epoxy resin for purchasing bisphenol A products. The operating rate in the downstream also fell under the influence of dual control, and most factories mainly consumed inventory. In the fourth week, the auction price was 24600 yuan / ton, and the decline was amplified again, aggravating the bearish atmosphere in the market. As of Friday’s closing, the on-site offer was 24000 yuan / ton.
At the end of the month, the cost fell, accelerating the decline of bisphenol a market
In the fourth week of September, the raw material phenol and acetone market turned around and fell. This week, pure benzene moved in a wide range, the cost support weakened, and returned to the market in the Mid Autumn Festival. There was no stock mood before the long holiday in the market. The supplier’s profit making and shipment were not smooth, and the center of gravity continued to decline. In addition, domestic factories concentrated on reducing the listing prices of phenol and acetone, and the raw material end support fell again, As a downstream product of bisphenol A, it is difficult to escape.
The operating rate of domestic bisphenol a unit is as follows:
To sum up, bisphenol a market fell in September against the sharp rise of the chemical industry, and the current decline is difficult to stop. Next week is approaching the preparation period before the National Day holiday. At present, the high level of ECH of related products remains stable, and the downstream epoxy resin is also expected to be corrected. However, the operating rate of the whole industry has declined as a whole, restraining the purchase demand for upstream raw materials. On the other hand, the operating rate of downstream PC will continue to be difficult to improve. From the perspective of business society, From the demand of wind power industry to the operating rate of epoxy resin industry in the later stage, it is the key to the trend of bisphenol a market. In the short term, bisphenol a market continues to operate weakly, mainly with interval fluctuations.