On June 8, the price of aluminum fluoride was strong and stable temporarily

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 11250 yuan / ton on June 8, which was the same as that of the previous trading day; Compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 11200 yuan / ton on June 1, the price increased by 0.45%. Recent strong adjustment of aluminum fluoride Market.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been strongly adjusted, the price of fluorite has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen; The high price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream was adjusted, the price of cryolite rebounded and adjusted, and the downstream demand recovered. The overall downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for strong cost adjustment was temporarily stable, the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride was still strong, and the future market of aluminum fluoride was subject to strong shock adjustment.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose this month. The quotation first fell from 325.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 300.00 yuan / ton on May 7, a decrease of 7.69%, and then rose to 320.00 yuan / ton on May 30, an increase of 6.67%, an increase of 41.17% over the same period last year.

On May 29, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is enhanced, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand was general.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market rose slightly. The price of ammonium chloride rose from 1445.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1527.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.71%, an increase of 104.35% over the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly. The price fell from 2302.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2242.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.61%, up 27.66% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fluctuates with each other, and the downstream is generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Rising slightly in the aftermarket

In the first ten days of June, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly recently, with good cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has risen slightly, the price of polyaluminum chloride has fluctuated slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. Business analysts believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.

In May, the nylon filament market rose strongly, and the price of J showed a continuous upward trend. The main reason for the increase was driven by the cost. Caprolactam in the upstream of the cost side followed the rise of crude oil, and the overall price was strong, which formed a certain supporting role for high-speed spinning chips and nylon filament. However, the price rise did not drive the positive attitude of the downstream to take goods, and most downstream customers had insufficient confidence in the future market. The overall market wait-and-see atmosphere was thickened, and the trading atmosphere was not prosperous.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d/24f)

From the perspective of price trend, the price of nylon filament was stable this week. According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of May 31, 2022, the quotation of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d/24f) was 18250 yuan / ton, an increase of 1125 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.57%; The price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70d/24f) is 20480 yuan / ton, an increase of 880 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.49%; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d/12f) was reported at 21000 yuan / ton, up 325 yuan / ton or 1.57% compared with that at the beginning of the month.

Upstream raw material Market

Price fluctuation chart of nylon filament industrial chain

Raw material cyclohexanone: the domestic cyclohexanone market was running at a high level in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11200 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 11710 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.55% in the month and 10.06% year-on-year. In May, the cyclohexanone market continued to be on the high side, and the high level of raw material pure benzene supported the whole industry chain. In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises was low, and the supply was slightly tight, adding positive factors. At the same time, the downstream continued to recover, the basic demand began to expand, and the cyclohexanone market was relatively strong in the whole may.

Raw material caprolactam: in May, caprolactam at the upstream of the cost side followed the rise of crude oil, and the overall price was strong, which further contributed to the growth of the nylon fiber market. Of which, caprolactam rose from 13483 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 14800 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1317 yuan / ton, or 9.77% per month. The caprolactam analysts of the business club believe that the current raw material prices continue to strengthen, and the cost support is favorable. Some enterprises plan to repair devices, and the supply may be reduced. The demand side has limited follow-up and just needs to purchase. Under the high and strong market of raw materials, caprolactam price rises in the short term.

Supply and demand market

On the supply side, the start-up of nylon production plants in early May remained at a high level. Although some manufacturers reduced their production, the on-site spot supply remained sufficient, and some manufacturers had inventory pressure. In addition, the demand for downstream terminals is weak, the overall enthusiasm for taking goods in the field is not good, and the follow-up of new orders is limited; There is no “buy up not buy down” mentality. Most customers continue to buy on demand and follow up carefully. Although the logistics situation has improved in the first ten days of May, on the whole, the pressure of supply-demand imbalance in Jinzhou market is still large.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the cost side of nylon still supports the high level of the market, the supply of goods is sufficient, and there is no too much positive feedback on the demand side. The analysts of the business agency expect that the nylon filament market will continue to be strong and weak in the short term, and the overall market will tend to be high.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, toluene rose violently this month, and the price rose broadly. On May 1, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan / ton, and on May 27, it was 7920 yuan / ton, an increase of 610 yuan / ton or 8.34% compared with the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 34.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the high price of toluene in the US gold plate, South Korean toluene was sent to the US for arbitrage, and domestic toluene exports to South Korea increased significantly. The toluene export market is active, adding to the wide rise of crude oil in the month, the operators have a positive attitude of supporting prices, and the domestic market prices have risen continuously.

In the external market, toluene in Asia rose sharply in the external market this month. On May 27, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1105 / ton, a month on month increase of US $81 / ton, or 7.91%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China continued to decline this month, and the price fell broadly. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17775 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 16775 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.63% over the beginning of the month and an increase of 18.13% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this month. The price was 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 11.24% compared with the beginning of the month and 54.69% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8819.8 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8720.6 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the beginning of the month and up 14.95% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is strong, and the cost may continue to rise. Toluene export orders continued, the downstream PX market was positive, the positive atmosphere was not reduced, and toluene was strong in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic PTA market remained volatile and upward in May, at a high level in three years. As of May 31, the average market price was 6900 yuan / ton, up 7.37% from the beginning of the month and 46.97% year-on-year. The favorable cost side pushed up the PTA price. In addition, PTA production suffered losses, some units maintained production reduction or maintenance status, and the supply side decreased. Specifically:

As of May 30, the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $117.60/barrel. The Brent contract in July exceeded $120, the highest level in more than two months. The market watched the implementation of the European Union’s oil embargo agreement on Russia. The tightening of supply and the expectation of the peak driving season in the United States significantly supported the oil price.

Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has declined. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is tight, and the closing price of PX in the outer market has risen. As of the 27th, the closing price was $1264-1266 / T FOB Korea and $1292-1294 / T CFR China. This led to a sharp rise in the domestic market price of p-xylene. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 11.24% compared with the price of 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 54.69% year-on-year.

In terms of supply, under the low processing cost, PTA plant has been overhauled and reduced its load more. The current operating load has dropped below 68%, and the spot liquidity in the market has been tightened. In terms of inventory, PTA social inventory fell back to 2.74 million tons.

Affected by the boost of raw materials, the downstream polyester market prices rose, among which the polyester filament products rose by 6%-11%. However, at present, the finished product inventory of the polyester factory is on the high side. At the same time, there is a resistance to high priced raw materials. The overall start-up is slow, and the start-up of the industry remains around 78%. At the same time, the terminal market is in the traditional off-season, and the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is below 60%, which is a drag on the PTA demand side.

Business analysts believe that crude oil and PX fluctuate at a high level, and the cost remains high, which will still form a positive support for the cost side of PTA. Under low processing cost, PTA unit load will also maintain low-level operation. The performance of the terminal market is still weak, polyester production and sales are difficult to improve, and the sluggish demand has brought suppression. Generally speaking, PTA remained high and volatile in June under the support of costs.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic rare earth market price index rose in May, the rare earth market rose slightly, the domestic praseodymium neodymium price trend rose, and the heavy rare earth market price was relatively stable. The rare earth index was 848 points on May 31, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.79% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 212.92% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In May, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market rose, and the price of mainstream praseodymium and neodymium in the rare earth market rose sharply. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have increased. By the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 965000 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.04%; The price of neodymium was 1.185 million yuan / ton, an increase of 8.22%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 955000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 10.4%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 946500 yuan / ton, up 11.68%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1155000 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.59%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1255000 yuan / ton, up 5.91%, and the domestic rare earth market rose sharply.

The price of rare earth in the domestic market has risen. Recently, the downstream procurement has been normal. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some upstream and downstream production has been affected, and some metal plants have procurement demand, which has boosted the mentality of separation manufacturers, and the price trend in the market has risen. The inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises in the field is not high, but the spot purchase demand is still there, and the rare earth market is higher. Due to the normal supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and other mainstream products of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and so on has been reduced, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the price increase on the floor is limited. In addition, the rare earth metal factory was cautious in purchasing without lock orders. Shanghai has been gradually unsealed since June 1, and the demand side is expected to improve. This news has a certain positive and boosting impact, and the price trend of the rare earth market on the floor has risen.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. The peak season of rare earth demand has ended. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has increased compared with the previous period. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the price trend in the market has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in April 2022, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 312000 and 299000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9% and 44.6% respectively. The growth rate has dropped significantly compared with the previous month, and the production and sales of vehicles have declined. However, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has gradually increased, the domestic light rare earth market has a good delivery situation, and the price has risen, The domestic heavy rare earth market price trend is relatively stable.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China is relatively stable. By the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.6 million yuan / ton, and the price trend was flat; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2.595 million yuan / ton, with a stable trend; Dysprosium metal price was 3.38 million yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 1.96%; The price of terbium Series in China is rising. The price of terbium oxide in China is 14.55 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 18.45 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth is relatively stable. The leading magnetic material factory purchases on demand, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market trend stable temporarily. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreases. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. In addition, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the market is maintained.

In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, a year-on-year increase of +23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, which is flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increment concentrated on light rare earth will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth is guaranteed in terms of long-term demand. In addition, the recent news of resumption of work and production has continuously spread, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. With the continuous change of the global supply pattern of rare earth raw materials, the deepening of the requirements of innovation driven green development, the continuous strengthening of the normative governance of the domestic rare earth industry and the further deepening of the understanding of resource scarcity, Chen Ling, an analyst with the business agency, expects the price of rare earth in the domestic market to rise slightly.

Zinc price fell in May

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell violently in May, and the zinc market recovered after falling. As of May 31, the zinc price was 26174 yuan / ton, down 5.65% from 27742 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the supply and demand of zinc market slowly recovered, and the zinc price stopped falling and recovered. Since late April, the price of zinc has fallen sharply. With the gradual progress of resumption of work and production, the price of zinc has slowly recovered since mid May.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in May, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 49.6%, which was 2.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, but still below the critical point. The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has improved, but it has not yet recovered to the pre epidemic level. In May, there was great downward pressure on the zinc market, and the zinc price fell violently. With the gradual promotion of the resumption of production and work, both production and demand have recovered, and the zinc price has stopped falling and recovered, which will increase the momentum of zinc price rise in the future.

In April, auto sales hit a 10-year low

According to the statistical data of China Automobile Association, in April 2022, the production and sales of automobiles reached 1205000 and 1181000 respectively, with a month on month decrease of 46.2% and 47.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.1% and 47.6%; From January to April, 7.69 million and 7.691 million vehicles were produced and sold, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and 12.1%. In April, the automobile production and sales decreased significantly, and the sales volume of that month fell below 1.2 million, the lowest monthly level in the same period in the past decade; Both passenger cars and commercial vehicles showed a sharp decline month on month and year on year. As the main end-user in the zinc market, the production and sales of the automobile industry fell sharply, and the demand of the zinc market fell seriously. In the absence of major positive incentives, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to decline, and the demand of the zinc market is less than expected.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the supply and demand of zinc market slowly recovered in May, but the overall supply recovery speed was ahead of the demand recovery speed. Affected by the control, the demand of zinc market was expected to decline, and the support for the future rise of zinc market was insufficient. In the future, with the gradual progress of the resumption of work and production, the supply and demand of zinc market grew slowly, and the zinc price is expected to stop falling and recover. However, there is limited room for the rise of zinc price, and it is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of the business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on May 30 was 11280 yuan / ton, up 1.08% from the beginning of last week and 92.27% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, phosphoric acid enterprises continued to raise their prices slightly, mostly moderately based on their own shipment, and the overall focus of the market moved up. However, the shipment situation after the rise was more general. Both the buyer and the seller were on the sidelines, and the market trading was tepid. Up to now, the price of raw materials is about 38000-40000 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 11000-12800 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 10600-11300 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 11000-12500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 11000-12000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

As for phosphate rock, according to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of May 24, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in the mainstream areas in China was around 870 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 763 yuan / ton), the price increased by 107 yuan / ton, or 13.97%.

Yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 36500 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 39500 yuan / ton. The price increased within the month by 8.22%.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the business society, the raw materials have been consolidated at a high level recently, the phosphoric acid market has risen and shipped in general, and both the buyer and the seller are on the sidelines. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable and fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic PC market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of May 27, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 21333.33 yuan / ton, up or down -2.44% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic bisphenol a market fell this week. The raw material phenol and acetone plants were all on the rise at the weekend. Although the market was not followed up enough, the offer of the on-site cargo holders was firm and the cost side was well supported. However, the downstream epoxy resin and other markets declined broadly. Although the goods holders offered profits, the actual single trading was still limited, and the pessimism in the market was aggravated.

The upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the PC cost side support was cut. In terms of industry load, recently, the load of domestic PC enterprises has generally run sideways, with abundant spot goods on the floor, and the supply side is difficult to support the spot price. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited due to a variety of factors, and the goods taking situation is poor. The superimposed health events still have an impact on some parts of eastern China, and some transportation is still affected by them and it is difficult to increase the volume. The market is dominated by small orders, buyers’ mentality of buying up but not buying down spreads, merchants’ confidence is not strong, and offer to make profits on the market.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of the business agency, the domestic PC market continued to fall this week, the upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the cost side’s support effect on PC weakened. On the supply side, the on-site source of goods tends to be abundant, on the demand side, the spot trading is relatively light, and the on-site actual trading volume is insufficient. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of May 26, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10125.00 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the price on May 20, 0.41% compared with the price on April 26, and 17.91% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (5.20-5.26), the melamine market is weak. Recently, the price of raw material urea has declined, but it is still high, the cost support is still strong, the operating rate of melamine is at a high level, the demand side has not been significantly improved, the downstream consumption and follow-up ability of melamine is insufficient, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, the market trading atmosphere is flat, and the price of melamine has fallen.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly on May 25, down 10 yuan / ton or 0.31% compared with the price on May 24, up 38.63% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas fluctuated slightly, and the cost support was general. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is weakened, industrial demand is general, and downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high price urea. From the perspective of supply: there are many urea maintenance manufacturers, and the supply is reduced. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged.

According to melamine analysts of the business community, the current raw material urea price is high, the cost pressure is still there, the supply side starts at a high level, the demand side performs poorly, and the supply and demand support is insufficient. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak consolidation.