According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic rare earth market price index rose in May, the rare earth market rose slightly, the domestic praseodymium neodymium price trend rose, and the heavy rare earth market price was relatively stable. The rare earth index was 848 points on May 31, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.79% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 212.92% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In May, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market rose, and the price of mainstream praseodymium and neodymium in the rare earth market rose sharply. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have increased. By the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 965000 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.04%; The price of neodymium was 1.185 million yuan / ton, an increase of 8.22%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 955000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 10.4%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 946500 yuan / ton, up 11.68%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1155000 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.59%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1255000 yuan / ton, up 5.91%, and the domestic rare earth market rose sharply.

The price of rare earth in the domestic market has risen. Recently, the downstream procurement has been normal. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some upstream and downstream production has been affected, and some metal plants have procurement demand, which has boosted the mentality of separation manufacturers, and the price trend in the market has risen. The inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises in the field is not high, but the spot purchase demand is still there, and the rare earth market is higher. Due to the normal supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and other mainstream products of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and so on has been reduced, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the price increase on the floor is limited. In addition, the rare earth metal factory was cautious in purchasing without lock orders. Shanghai has been gradually unsealed since June 1, and the demand side is expected to improve. This news has a certain positive and boosting impact, and the price trend of the rare earth market on the floor has risen.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. The peak season of rare earth demand has ended. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has increased compared with the previous period. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the price trend in the market has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers, in April 2022, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 312000 and 299000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.9% and 44.6% respectively. The growth rate has dropped significantly compared with the previous month, and the production and sales of vehicles have declined. However, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has gradually increased, the domestic light rare earth market has a good delivery situation, and the price has risen, The domestic heavy rare earth market price trend is relatively stable.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China is relatively stable. By the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.6 million yuan / ton, and the price trend was flat; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2.595 million yuan / ton, with a stable trend; Dysprosium metal price was 3.38 million yuan / ton, with a slight increase of 1.96%; The price of terbium Series in China is rising. The price of terbium oxide in China is 14.55 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 18.45 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth is relatively stable. The leading magnetic material factory purchases on demand, which makes the domestic heavy rare earth market trend stable temporarily. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreases. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. In addition, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the market is maintained.

In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, a year-on-year increase of +23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, which is flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increment concentrated on light rare earth will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth is guaranteed in terms of long-term demand. In addition, the recent news of resumption of work and production has continuously spread, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. With the continuous change of the global supply pattern of rare earth raw materials, the deepening of the requirements of innovation driven green development, the continuous strengthening of the normative governance of the domestic rare earth industry and the further deepening of the understanding of resource scarcity, Chen Ling, an analyst with the business agency, expects the price of rare earth in the domestic market to rise slightly.