1、 Price trend
| Benzalkonium chloride |
According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, toluene rose violently this month, and the price rose broadly. On May 1, the price of toluene was 7310 yuan / ton, and on May 27, it was 7920 yuan / ton, an increase of 610 yuan / ton or 8.34% compared with the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 34.79%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the high price of toluene in the US gold plate, South Korean toluene was sent to the US for arbitrage, and domestic toluene exports to South Korea increased significantly. The toluene export market is active, adding to the wide rise of crude oil in the month, the operators have a positive attitude of supporting prices, and the domestic market prices have risen continuously.
In the external market, toluene in Asia rose sharply in the external market this month. On May 27, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1105 / ton, a month on month increase of US $81 / ton, or 7.91%.
In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.
| Sodium Molybdate |
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China continued to decline this month, and the price fell broadly. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17775 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 16775 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.63% over the beginning of the month and an increase of 18.13% over the same period last year.
In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this month. The price was 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 11.24% compared with the beginning of the month and 54.69% compared with the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8819.8 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8720.6 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the beginning of the month and up 14.95% from the same period last year.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.
The trend of crude oil is strong, and the cost may continue to rise. Toluene export orders continued, the downstream PX market was positive, the positive atmosphere was not reduced, and toluene was strong in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.
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