This week (June 13-17), the price of domestic liquid ammonia fell sharply. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei have declined to varying degrees. The weekly decline accumulated around 300 yuan / ton. The market supply has changed and the ammonia supply has increased. However, the demand for chemical fertilizer in the downstream is weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some rigid demand. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also been lower. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of June 17, the current weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong is nearly 5%, and the mainstream quotation range at the weekend is 4600-4850 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places continued to rise compared with the previous week, and the overall supply pressure increased. The urea price retreated, and the manufacturer’s profit was poor, resulting in the reduction of the unit’s conversion to urea. Recently, the ammonia quantity is still rising. Therefore, the overall supply of liquid ammonia surged, and the short-term surge in supply led to partial excess.

Cost side

The upstream coal market is gradually warming up, squeezing the downstream liquid ammonia profits. However, the national regulation of coal prices is still within a reasonable range, and the downstream cost pressure is not large. At present, the downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers’ profits are still within a reasonable range. The price of natural gas also declined, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of the business community, LNG rose by 0.79% this week.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is rigid and stable, with no increment. The price of urea fell, and ammonium nitrate, ammonium chloride and other products mainly stopped rising. The agricultural demand is weakened and the industrial demand is insufficient. Buying up rather than buying down, agricultural fertilizer preparation slowed down. The wheat harvest gradually ended and agricultural demand weakened. Compound fertilizer is mainly followed up according to the needs. Plate plant enterprises are generally started, and just need to purchase. Melamine prices have decreased slightly, and their enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea was maintained at a high level, and the urea supply increased due to the release of some summer tube fertilizers.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, deeper than that of urea, and the price difference between them has widened. However, it is still at a reasonable level.

From the above figure, the profit of the liquid ammonia industrial chain is still within a reasonable range. The price of natural gas upstream of the gas head has been declining in the early stage. At present, the increase is limited, but the coal price continues to rise. Affected by the policy, the price is still under control, which is conducive to easing the pressure on downstream costs. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, the middle and lower reaches such as urea turned down, the rise of compound fertilizer stopped, the enterprise profits met the test, and the profits of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer decreased significantly compared with the previous period.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the business agency, at present, the supply pressure in the domestic liquid ammonia market has increased, and the shipment speed of manufacturers has decreased significantly. In addition, the weakening of agricultural demand has also brought bad news. Therefore, the price of liquid ammonia may still fall.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 21, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream regions was 20500 yuan / ton, which was 540 yuan / ton lower than the price on June 17, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price of 21040 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.57%, and 1400 yuan / ton lower than the price on June 13, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price of 21900 yuan / ton), a decrease of 6.39%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that this week, the overall decline of the domestic organosilicon DMC market continued last week, and the market price continued to adjust downward. Last week, the domestic market price of organosilicon DMC was lowered successively, and the price of large factories in Shandong was adjusted from 22300 yuan / ton to around 20800 yuan / ton. This week, the organosilicon DMC market as a whole continued to decline in a weak position. At the beginning of the week (20th and 21st), Shandong big factory lowered the organosilicon DMC price again by 600 yuan / ton, and the organosilicon DMC price of the factory fell to 20200 yuan / ton. Leading manufacturers also lowered the price of organosilicon DMC by 1000 yuan / ton. The price of organosilicon DMC in this factory was 20500 yuan / ton. Other factories mostly chose to follow the decline or not offer for the time being. As of the 21st, the ex factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 20200-20600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.57% in two days and 6.39% in late June. At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the floor is calm, with the downstream mainly watching the market, some downstream digesting the early inventory, and some downstream replenishing according to their own conditions or bargain hunting.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the domestic metal silicon market has been mainly rising recently (6.13-6.21). At present, the metal silicon has a strong bullish atmosphere, and the early losses have led to a strong willingness of silicon factories to raise prices. At the beginning of the week, the large northern factories took the lead in raising prices, leading some small and medium-sized enterprises to follow. As of June 20, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average reference price of 441\, Compared with June 13 (17240 yuan / ton), it increased by 12.78%.

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

At present, the demand side of the organosilicon DMC market is still relatively quiet as a whole. On the demand side, the downstream mainly takes a wait-and-see approach to the fluctuation of the market. On the supply side, the rising market of raw metal silicon has given organosilicon DMC some cost support. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic rare earth market price index was mainly stable this week, the domestic rare earth industry had little change, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price trend was temporarily stable. On June 19, the rare earth index was 856 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The price of some products in the domestic light rare earth market fell slightly this week, and the trend of some mainstream praseodymium neodymium products in the rare earth market was mainly stable. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the domestic prices of neodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium are stable, and the prices of praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide are slightly lower. As of the 20th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 980000 yuan / ton, which was stable this week; The price of neodymium is 1.2 million yuan / ton, which is flat; The price of praseodymium oxide is 980000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 947500 yuan / ton, down 1.56% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1156500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.73%; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.265 million yuan / ton, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable.

The domestic rare earth market price is mainly stable, and the downstream procurement is not active recently. Some metal plants have procurement demand, and the on-site price is slightly lower. The inventory of downstream magnetic material enterprises in the field is not high, but the spot purchase demand is still there, and the rare earth market is higher. Due to the normal supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and other mainstream products of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are located in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles has decreased, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the price trend in the market is stable. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market consolidation of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly focused. In addition, the rare earth metal plant is cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the consolidation of the rare earth market in the site is the main thing.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the market price has risen slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. The automobile production and sales have risen sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field has been normal, the domestic light rare earth market has remained high, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price has remained stable.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China is temporarily stable. As of the 20th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.545 million yuan / ton, and the price trend this week is temporarily stable; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2535000 yuan / ton, with a stable trend; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.315 million yuan / ton, and the price trend was stable this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly stable. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 14.45 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 18.45 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths is weak and stable. The leading magnetic material factory purchases on demand, which keeps the domestic heavy rare earth market at a high level. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places is reduced. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic situation being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price trend of heavy rare earth in the market is temporarily stable.

In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock ore type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, a year-on-year increase of +23.2%, and the ionic rare earth is 11490 tons, which is flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increment concentrated on light rare earth will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earth is guaranteed in terms of long-term demand. In addition, the recent news of resumption of work and production continues to spread, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. With the continuous change of the global supply pattern of rare earth raw materials, the deepening of the requirements of innovation driven green development, the continuous strengthening of the normative governance of the domestic rare earth industry and the further deepening of the understanding of resource scarcity, the upstream ion mines The waste cost is high and the supply is low, which still supports the price of rare earth. Chen Ling, an analyst at business agency, predicts that the domestic rare earth market price may remain high.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of the business club, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite remained stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3316.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which remained stable as a whole.

The overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite this week was average. The domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite market price range was 3000-3550 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated around 3200-3300 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of June, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 2.81% and the price of sulfur has decreased by 1.89%. In general, the upstream raw material cost of sodium pyrosulfite is still high, and the strong cost will support the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Aftermarket forecast

The analysts of the business club believe that the raw material cost continues to be high, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the recent domestic potassium sulfate Market is at a high level and sideways, and some spot prices continue to rise. As of June 16, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5566.67 yuan / ton, up or down +1.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic potash fertilizer market momentum was OK. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises was sideways, maintained at 40%, and the on-site supply continued to be tight. In terms of potassium chloride, the price of potassium at home and abroad is strong and rising. In addition, the previous procurement support of potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate enterprises, the market of potassium chloride is still strong. The situation in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine has been tense for a long time. The export of potash fertilizer producing areas has been restricted. The arrival volume of border trade has increased in a narrow range. The offers of enterprises and businesses in the field have been firm, and a few have decreased in a narrow range. Support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the impact of health incidents in East China and Northeast China is gradually decreasing, and shipments in many regions are resuming. There are still price adjustment offers in the floor, and the new single price of potassium sulfate is at a high level. In terms of demand, the on-site trading is average, and the downstream purchasing is relatively stable.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of the business agency believe that the high price of domestic potassium sulfate is strong this week, and the high price of potassium chloride is stable. The domestic potassium sulfate cost support is relatively strong, the demand side follow-up is OK, and the supply side remains compact. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic potassium sulfate price may still be affected by solid fundamentals and run at a high level.

From June 2 to June 10, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene was raised as a whole. It was 7345 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 7947 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a weekly increase of 8.2%.

On June 9, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $121.51/barrel, down US $0.60 or 0.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $123.07/barrel, down US $0.51 or 0.4%. The oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. This was mainly driven by the sharp rise in refined oil products, and oil prices were supported by the expectation of tight supply and demand growth.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On June 8, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 300 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: HSBC Petrochemical offers 10000 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 10003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 10000 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 9900 yuan / ton.

This week, the crude oil price rose as a whole, and the external price of pure benzene rose, which provided a good support for the fundamentals of the industrial chain. This week, Sinopec continuously raised the production price of pure benzene, which once again boosted market confidence, and local refining enterprises followed suit. Over the weekend, it was reported that an accident occurred in a factory in South Korea, resulting in the shutdown of about 380000 tons of pure benzene production capacity, and the market speculation was positive. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China fell significantly, and the overall support of the market was strong. However, Shandong was dragged down by poor downstream demand. Although the price rose positively this week, there was still a certain price difference with East China, and the actual transaction was weak. At present, the mainstream price of pure benzene in China is 8750-9350 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuates with that of pure benzene. At present, the market price in East China has risen to about 9200-9300 yuan / ton.

Buoyed by the favorable industrial chain, the bidding price of crude benzene market increased significantly this week. In Shandong Province, 7970 ~ 7975 yuan / ton was implemented. In terms of coking enterprises, the start-up was slightly lower this week, and the supply of crude benzene was slightly tight. After the first round of coke increase was implemented this week, the mentality of coking enterprises improved, and the start-up may be improved. In the downstream, the recent trend of hydrobenzene is good. Is the enterprise active in operation? The overall operating rate is more than 70%, and the demand for crude benzene is well supported. From the perspective of future market, at present, the fundamentals are favorable and the support is strong, and the downstream demand is OK, boosting the overall trend of the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable, medium and strong trend in the near future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of June 14, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9356.67 yuan / ton, down 3.21% compared with last Tuesday (June 7), 9.16% compared with May 14, and 22.03% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (6.8-6.14) the melamine market fell. Recently, the price of raw urea has risen, the cost support has risen, and the mentality of manufacturers has been supported. The operating rate of melamine has increased, but the demand side performance is poor, the enterprise sales are under pressure, the market trading atmosphere is flat, and the price of melamine is loose.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market was temporarily stable on June 14. On June 13, the reference price of urea was 3251.00, up 1.56% compared with June 1 (3201.00). From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, which is at a high level, but the factory inventory and social inventory are at a low level, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight.

Melamine analysts of business agency believe that at present, the raw material urea operates stably, which has certain support for the market. The operating rate of melamine is high, but the demand side is not followed up enough, and the supply and demand pattern is weak. It is expected that the melamine market may operate weakly and stably in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of June 12, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6536.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.02% from 6470.00 yuan / ton on June 6.

On June 12, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.37, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new high in the cycle, up 187.26% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

International crude oil prices rose, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of June 12, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 6600 yuan / ton and 6650 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation for 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6600 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6700 yuan / ton.

As the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. At present, it is in the peak season of traditional consumption of crude oil, and it is also a season of high incidence of extreme weather such as hurricanes. Crude oil has a great tendency to hit a new high again, and the rise of international oil prices is unabated.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 8, Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory fell by 194000 barrels to a five week low of 6.791 million barrels; Light distillate stocks fell by 139000 barrels to a three week low of 15.121 million barrels.

Future forecast: the price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is high, the bidding price of asphalt and Fushun shale oil is rising, and the cost of the ship fuel market is under pressure. However, the market terminal demand is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6600 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6700 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business club, the PC market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of June 10, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 20766.67 yuan / ton, up or down -0.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, domestic bisphenol A was boosted by the favorable cost at the beginning of this week, but it was difficult to smooth out the bad terminal demand, and the market immediately went down again. With the increase of inventory, there is pressure on the carriers and factories, and the shipment is slow. However, at present, the cost level is high, the goods holders follow the market, and the business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

The upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the PC cost side support was cut. In terms of industrial load, this week, the load of domestic PC enterprises increased as a whole due to the resumption of some devices in western Shandong. The on-site spot supply increased, and the supply side was difficult to support the spot price. At present, the main benefit in the market is still the international crude oil in the far upstream, but it fell back due to the drag of weak downstream demand. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited due to various factors, and the goods taking situation is poor. The impact of domestic health incidents on some parts of East China is gradually decreasing, but some transportation recovery is still slow. The market is dominated by small orders, buyers’ mentality of buying up but not buying down spreads, merchants’ confidence is not strong, and offer to make profits on the market.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the domestic PC market fell this week, the upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the cost side’s support effect on PC weakened. On the supply side, there is abundant supply of goods on the floor, on the demand side, spot trading is relatively light, and the actual trading volume on the floor is insufficient. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. On June 9, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 454000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 5, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 451000 yuan / ton). On June 9, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 472000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on May 15, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 471000 yuan / ton).

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate rose slightly this week. At present, the transaction volume of market inquiry has begun to increase. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in various regions, the downstream terminal demand has warmed up, and the production scheduling of enterprises has rebounded. The new production line of iron lithium has been put into operation, which has increased the procurement demand of the whole industry. Therefore, the price quotation of lithium carbonate has increased, and the price is expected to show positive performance.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide increased slightly. At present, the spot market is becoming more active. Driven by the price increase of industrial lithium carbonate and the slight recovery of demand, the price also increased slightly. Some downstream material factories have added inquiry orders, and there are a small number of purchases.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate operated steadily. As the price of lithium salt continued to rise, the iron phosphate market became active, and some enterprises’ quotations fell. The prices of the two were relatively offset, and the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate was generally stable. However, the supply side is still in short supply. At present, it is mainly based on the preliminary arrangement and delivery.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business club, the current market inquiry is gradually increasing, the large downstream material manufacturers are orderly preparing to purchase according to the demand, the market spot quantity is slightly tight, and the low-cost lithium carbonate is relatively small. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price may rise steadily.