China is one of the world’s important rare earth exporting countries, how about the status quo of rare earth exports in China? It was reported that 46,000 tonnes of rare-earth exports in the previous November had grown by nearly 10% compared with the same period last year.
In recent years, Chinese rare earths have accounted for more than 80% of global production. China is currently the world’s main production of rare earths, according to the Prospective Industry research Institute released the “2018-2023 China rare earth industry market forward-looking and investment strategic Planning analysis” data show that in 2016 China’s rare-earth ore production of 105,000 tons, accounting for 88.91% of global production. Since 2013, the price of rare earths has fallen to the bottom of history and has been low for a long time.
Globally, the new energy vehicles, high-power fans, inverter compressors and energy-saving motors, such as Low-carbon Industrial development prospects are better, and these industries to the largest downstream application of rare earth permanent magnets (i.e. NdFeB permanent magnet materials) have greater demand. 2018 demand is expected to reach 71,000 tons, accounting for close to 40%, at the same time a higher growth rate of about 6.3% composite growth; In addition, the new applications of polishing powder mainly used in the electronics industry benefited from the growth of the electronics sector, growth rate is faster, composite growth of 2.8%.
In mature applications, the catalyst is the most demanding field, according to the prospective database is expected 2018 demand for 23,700 tons, accounted for 13.3%, but slower growth, compound growth rate of about 1.3%; In addition, glass, ceramics and other mature applications to maintain a steady growth. Overall, the global demand for rare earths is expected to compound growth of 4.1%.
Demand for rare earths in foreign markets is largely dependent on imports to China. According to the prospective database, China exported 4103 tonnes of rare earths in November 2017, an increase of 2.9% per cent year-on-year, and 46043 tonnes of rare-earth exports in January-November, up 10% from the same period last year. China’s exports of rare earths in November were 38.785 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 24.9% in January-November, and China’s exports of rare earths amounts to 377.47 million U.S. dollars, down 23.2% per cent year-on-year.
From the point of view of supply and demand balance, the global supply of rare earths has been in shortage in recent years. The shortage is expected to improve in the near future as demand for new energy vehicles grows. But because of the existence of China’s “black Rare-earth” industry, as well as the market accumulation of inventory impact, rare earths prices are still at the bottom.
My side mainly share three parts: the first is the 2017 nickel industry pattern three major characteristics; the second is the 2017 nickel operation of the eight key indicators group; The third is to analyze the situation of nickel supply and demand balance in 2018.
First of all, we analyze the characteristics of industrial pattern in the long run. After familiar with the industrial structure, then analyze the production and procurement, familiar with the background of industrial operation.
The first feature of the industrial structure, from the Chinese nickel industry, China’s primary nickel supply ratio. ugg pas cher We can see from 2010-2017, the supply of nickel and the proportion of the change in the degree of large.
We first look from 2017, the 2017 nickel supply composition, domestic NPI accounted for 42.6%, the second is a line with orange yellow, refers to Indonesia’s nickel pig iron, its proportion is accounted for 9.9%; domestic electrolytic nickel 16.3%, net imports electrolytic nickel in 2017 supply accounted for only 19.5%, Compared to the 2016-year 32.5%, from China, the rate of electrolytic nickel supply is very fast; the top 11.7% is the high-grade nickel-iron imported from China, the high-grade nickel-iron, which is different from the domestic NPI, the domestic nickel-iron content is in 7%-11%, The amount of nickel iron imported is 25%-35%.
From the 2017 perspective, if we want to analyze the rise and fall of nickel prices, we may have to from the domestic NPI, Indonesia’s NPI, domestic electrolytic nickel, imports of electrolytic nickel and imported high-quality nickel iron several angles to analyze, pay attention to each of their supply chain changes, including cost changes need to be basic familiar.
The above is analysed from 2017. If we were to compare 2017 with 2013 years and 2014, we look at 13, 14 China’s angle, the supply pattern of nickel is as follows, 65% is based on domestic NPI, compared to 13, 14 and 2017 years of nickel price trend, it is the definition of domestic nickel price ups and downs, We look at the 2016 domestic nickel-iron ratio and import ratio between the difference is not small, you can see that the price of electrolytic nickel for domestic nickel and iron its impact is very large.
This year, since September nickel price rise and fall mainly look at domestic nickel iron its own cost and production. Through the first analysis, the entire nickel industry pattern, to the 2013 and 2014 mainly look at the price trend of nickel pig iron, to 2016 years, in addition to the analysis of domestic nickel pig iron, electrolytic nickel used in the case of a large nickel price impact weight is very large.
Just now we are analyzing the composition of the nickel supply ratio, and then we analyze the second feature. We analyze the concentration of nickel resources industry, because the level of industrial concentration determines the industrial enterprises in the upstream and downstream pricing, inventory control.
Let’s look at the first table first, 2012-2017 China high nickel pig iron Factory concentration Change, in 2012, China’s high nickel pig iron production of the number of factories are 157, of which the first 3 of the capacity of 28.1%, the first 10 is 41.6%, then the industrial institutions are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, And the number of enterprises is particularly numerous. In 2017 years, the number of high nickel pig iron Enterprises is only 43, 43 of the 9-10 are new to open, time is relatively short. If we remove the 9, there may be only 34 to 35.
Then we analyzed, 2017 years ago 3 high nickel pig iron production capacity accounted for 48.2%, the top 10 of the ratio is 74.8%. From the factory point of view, the four combined to calculate, the first 3 of the capacity accounted for about 65%, we have to look at the concentration of changes in the industrial structure and price impact, you can clearly see the concentration of nickel ironworks is very high, nickel iron production capacity is very large.
Nickel ore procurement compared with 2012 years of procurement, the former nickel Iron Works small scale, can only go to the port to purchase the spot, the amount of procurement is not large, and to 2017 years, nickel Iron works of nickel ore procurement not to the port purchase spot, directly to Indonesia, the Philippines to talk to the miners. This shift in thinking, China’s port nickel ore inventory will be relatively low. Because from the point of view of Nickel ironworks, its conventional nickel ore inventory level will not be the same as in 2012 every nickel ironworks stock will have, now the entire nickel iron inventory is lower.
If we are familiar with this industrial structure, we will analyze the nickel ore inventory, including 2015 to this year, the overall nickel ore inventory level is relatively low, low inventory and nickel ore price rise and fall can draw equal sign? This is the first table. China high nickel pig iron factory concentration.
Then we analyze the 2017 Indonesian nickel pig iron production capacity growth, 2015 Indonesian nickel iron production only 47,000 tons, last year up to 109,000 tons, this year is expected to be 209,000 tons, this volume is relatively large. adidas ultra boost Apart from its capacity, what else is in it? Indonesia’s nickel-iron cost is cheaper than China’s, looking at the table, by 2017 and 2018, the entire cost curve of nickel pig iron is likely to go down is relatively large. In addition to the low cost of nickel pig iron, the cost of stainless steel will be correspondingly reduced.
The 4th form, mainly speaking of electrolytic nickel inventory, to 2017 years, China’s electrolytic nickel inventory is 93,000 tons, and most of the inventory is based on London nickel and a higher proportion. At present, the nickel stock in London is based on the proportion of nickel beans, from the angle of the steel mills, the use of nickel beans in steelmaking when the loss rate than the nickel plate to high. China’s imports of nickel beans in 2018 will be relatively large. From the third table, we should be clear from the global nickel inventory, nickel inventory is high enough, this September-October electrolytic nickel forced warehouse because the domestic nickel plate less. Chinese enterprises began to use nickel beans, the relative nickel plate resources will be more.
Next, mainly speaking of the third feature, China’s stainless steel composition. Stainless steel is divided into 200, 300 and 400 series, the use of nickel is stainless steel, from China, the consumption of stainless steel to nickel in the whole of China’s consumption is relatively large, about 80%, stainless steel for nickel consumption and concentrated in the 300 series of stainless steel, about 90%, that is, if we analyze the market is mainly nickel, So focus on the 300 series stainless steel industry.
Mainly said that China’s 300 series stainless steel smelting plant industry concentration, we look at the 300 department of the first 3 factory concentration is 50%, the first 8 is 80%, from the above table, China’s 300 series of stainless steel industry concentration is higher. The 300-series steelmaking production in China and Indonesia was merged, and the yield of Qingshan line was about 38%, and the two production of Qingshan and Tisco reached 55%. We consider from the 300 series of steel, the first two steel mills on the 300 series of the price control is very strong, as well as the raw materials for nickel procurement, price control is particularly strong.
Through the analysis of the industrial structure, the nickel bar screened eight key indicators, from nickel ore, nickel iron, electrolytic nickel and stainless steel industry chain for the weekly and monthly tracking analysis, in order to judge the fundamental situation in a timely manner.
Everyone is concerned about the Philippines, which is the mine, is the Philippines weekly nickel ore exports, indicating the amount of nickel ore exports per month. From last year and this year, the Philippine supply of nickel ore is sufficient, see, the Philippine export volume is relatively stable.
Indicator 2 shows Indonesia’s nickel mine export report, which was banned from 2014 and officially opened in 2017. is the volume of exports per week, from April this year to the end of July, each week’s export volume is relatively low, only 1-2 ships, and 8-October, the weekly export volume increased to 3 ships up and down, to the October, the weekly export volume can reach 6-8 ships.
said the number of Indonesian nickel ore exports per month, reached 15 in October, December to 20 ships, its export volume in 15 ships, export volume is about 900,000 tons. We know that it is the rainy season in the Philippines, which is November to March of the year. And Indonesia’s mines from 10 this year, November, will be able to make up for the Philippines due to the rainy season caused by the production. Indicators 1 and 2 mainly relate to the balance of exports between Indonesia and the Philippines.
Mainly concerned about the trend of China’s nickel ore inventory. It can be seen that 2013 10-November, you can see that China’s middle and high ni ore reached 35.58 million wet tons, when the inventory is very high. By the year 2015, the entire market was stocked at 100.014 billion tonnes.
Just now we analyzed the concentration of nickel pig iron Enterprises, before 2013, a lot of nickel production enterprises, and to the 2016 enterprises have been less, production is concentrated in the hands of large enterprises. To 2015 years the standing stock of nickel in 10 million tons. In November this year, China’s middle-high nickel ore storage period is 3.8 months, is China from the beginning of October, there is no ore imports, China’s mines are enough to use to the next 1-February, reflecting the current China’s nickel ore inventory is abundant.
Indicators 1 and 2, we are analysis of China’s nickel ore is abundant, China’s imports from Indonesia is also very large, based on the analysis of Nickel Bar, 1, 2 and March nickel ore based on production fundamentals, for nickel price support is relatively poor.
Next Analysis indicator 4, China’s nickel pig iron capacity production and operating rate, from this year 4-May, China’s high nickel pig iron production rate is very low, almost from the end of January this year began to reduce production. The main analysis of China’s high nickel iron production and smelting profit monthly trend, this April, the loss of nickel ironworks is relatively large, resulting in very little production of high nickel iron, the lowest cost of China’s high nickel ironworks in May close to the loss of enterprises. Since January 2017, when the high nickel iron price was 760-770, the nickel bar considered that the nickel iron continued to fall in the space is very small.
The 5th indicator is Indonesian nickel pig iron production and China’s nickel-iron imports. The nickel bar tracks Indonesia more than 95% of nickel pig iron production, forming monthly production data to reflect the production progress of Indonesian nickel pig iron Project. In recent three years, Indonesian nickel pig iron (including nickel-iron) production rapidly increased, 2015 monthly production of about 6,000 tons of nickel, 2016 monthly production increased to about 11,000 tons of nickel, 2017 monthly production increased to 18,000 tons of nickel, Indonesia in October reached 23,680 tons nickel high. Nickel prices rose from the end of June this year, the nickel is not expected to have much room for growth, because Indonesia’s nickel production increased by a large amount.
China’s imports of nickel iron and Indonesian nickel pig iron production is not the same, showing a range of volatile trends, and Indonesian nickel iron production trend is very strong.
The 6th indicator of the analysis is electrolytic nickel output and the amount of imports and inventories. China’s electrolytic nickel production is basically falling down, which has a impact on the price of nickel. Electrolytic nickel imports from the beginning of 2015 is relatively large, the monthly reach of 36,000 tons, starting from last July, the import volume is basically within 20,000 tons. Mainly because the electrolytic Nickel plate inventory is less, but more nickel beans, nickel beans in China is still not widely used. In the same period, China’s electrolytic nickel production has been low.
From the electrolytic nickel inventory data, from 2015 until 2016, China’s inventory of electrolytic nickel increased; since last year, inventories have fallen rapidly, and China’s open electrolytic nickel stocks are now less than 100,000 tonnes; the current rise in nickel prices is mainly due to the very low stock of nickel in China. Over the same period, LME inventory showed a decline in 2016 years to now, the basic stability of 380,000 tons up and down, is still at a high level.
The next indicator is the stainless steel operating rate and the output of stainless steel. From late May this year to the end of June, the output of Chinese steel mills is very low. At that time, the research of Nickel Bar, China’s steel mills and traders inventory is very low, so the nickel bar analysis of stainless steel downward space is very small. From late July to the end of September, the construction rate of Chinese steel mills is very high, China’s stainless steel inventory increased, stainless steel prices began to fall from September. Nickel analysis, this 4-June, China to inventory, 7-September replenishment of the inventory, at present, in the middle of December, the stainless steel factory operating rate of 66.7%, if the continuation of 3-4 weeks, is expected in the January in late stainless steel inventory will be very low.
The 8th index is 304 stainless steel smelting profit and inventory index. chaussure asics We mainly analyze the downstream sales of stainless steel and inventory is how much. January 2016-March 2017, 2017 1-September, 304 stainless steel smelting profit is more optimistic, since October 2017, 304 stainless steel factory smelting profit quickly deteriorated, steel mills also entered the production reduction stage.
At the end of last year, the absolute stock of stainless steel was very low and the relative stock index was very high. At the end of March this year, the absolute stock and relative stock indices of stainless steel were high, reflecting a far greater supply than demand, and the price of stainless steel began to fall from the end of March. By the middle of June, the stainless steel plant operating rate is very low, absolute inventory is very low, stainless steel relative stock index is only 0.7, meaning that traders stock only enough to sell four or five days, inventory level is too low, then the price into the rising channel. In stainless steel demand driven by rapid increase in output levels, up to 77.1%; since September 2017, capacity utilization began to decline, June stainless steel After the bottom of the pull up, September stainless steel began to callback, then a large callback.
From the monthly production of stainless steel, 300 series stainless steel in May after the lowest production this year, rapid upgrade, after October began to reduce, 400 series of stainless steel production steadily increased.
Just now we are from nickel ore, nickel iron, electrolytic nickel, steel mills and other aspects of 8 indicators tracking analysis, so that the supply and demand for nickel, the cost ah, more clearly. Here we will analyze the 2018 nickel supply and demand balance situation.
The nickel bar assesses the balance of nickel supply and demand in Indonesia, the Philippines and China in the 2018. 2018 China laterite nickel ore imports 54 million tons, compared to 2017 46.6 million tons increased 7.4 million tons, growth rate of 16%. Nickel pig iron production in China this year is 410,000 tons, 460,000 tons next year, growth of 12%, 2017 Indonesian nickel pig iron production 209,000 tons, is expected to 2018 290,000 tons, growth of 39%. In addition to the supply of scrap stainless steel, the supply of nickel in 2018 amounted to 1.535 million tonnes, which increased by 198,000 tonnes, by 15%, from 2017 to 138.5.
Nickel consumption is mainly stainless steel, as well as electroforming, batteries, alloys and so on. This year, for cobalt and nickel speculation, the impact on battery consumption is relatively large. From 2018, the battery consumption of nickel growth is relatively fast. But from the current situation in China, the base effect of battery on nickel consumption is relatively small. nike tn Nickel consumption of the increase is mainly in Indonesia Green Mountains do not embroider steel. Its stainless steel production of 1.8 million tons a year, 2018 Indonesia’s stainless steel project on nickel consumption growth of 110,000 tons, an increase of 186%. The total consumption of nickel in 2018 amounted to 1.56 million tons.
From 2017, the supply gap of nickel was 49,000 tons, and 2018 was 25,000 tons. Our view is that there will be excess nickel supply in the first quarter of next year, and that the nickel gap may widen after the stainless steel production capacity in the two or three quarter next year.
The metals and mining industries will play a key role in the global transition to a low-carbon future, and demand for copper, aluminum, lithium and cobalt will be further boosted, according to BMI, a research institute of Fitch, a leading global rating agency. Policymakers and mining will face new challenges in balancing the Low-carbon future with sustainable metal production over the next few years.
With the rise of the electric car market and the popularization of renewable energy, copper demand will remain stable for the next 10 years. Reducing transport emissions is a key aspect of tackling climate change, and electric cars are trying to do that. Conventional internal combustion engines used in motor vehicles usually contain about 20 kilograms of copper, while electric vehicles use 80 kilograms. In addition, wind and solar power consume more than non-renewable energy in terms of copper used per unit of electricity. For example, the amount of copper used in coal-fired power stations is 2 kilograms kw/kilowatt, while solar power facilities are 5 kilograms kw.
In order to meet stricter greenhouse gas emissions standards, the auto industry will continue to innovate to reduce vehicle weight, thereby boosting demand for aluminium. High-end luxury carmakers are still the main consumer of steel in the automotive industry, although the price per ton of steel is only 1/3 of aluminium, because expensive car pricing covers higher material costs. The Aluminum Association of the United States (Aluminum Association) believes that, compared to the steel structure, the car weight of the aluminum body structure is reduced by 50%, absorbing twice times of collision energy, requires less fuel, and can reduce carbon dioxide emissions as high as 17%.
The battery revolution will push the demand for lithium and cobalt over the next few 10 years. The production of lithium-ion batteries will continue to grow, based on the demand of portable electronics, residential and utility-scale power storage, as well as electric and hybrid vehicles. Lithium-ion batteries are expected to continue to grow in the coming years because of increasing role in key markets such as the United States, the European Union and China. The production of lithium-ion batteries also requires cobalt, mainly produced by copper by-products from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Cobalt prices have risen more than 300% per cent over the past 18 months as a result of supply panic.
In January 22nd of commodity index was 51.84, unchanged from yesterday, is the highest point in the 100 cycle (2011-09-12) fell by 48.16%, compared to 09 in 2012 05, Scarpe Air Jordan 3 the lowest point of 17.98 months rose 188.32%. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far)
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Figure 1 shows that with the gradual evolution of methanol and downstream industries, MTO / P and other emerging downstream product demand gradually increased, the type of downstream in 2013 only about 15% of methanol consumption, followed by two years of rapid development, the current consumption Methanol methanol more than 20 million tons, accounting for 42%. With the formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid as the representative of the traditional downstream in 2010-2012 consumption of methanol 65% – 73%, 2013 after gradually from 50% to 41%, the type of downstream products generally face overcapacity, business Start is not high and industry restructuring and upgrading and other issues.
From the main downstream industry profit in 2017, most of the traditional downstream products profit better than expected, while the emerging downstream product earnings are poor, the situation is slightly different than last year.
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Market forecast
The high price of raw materials on the stability of aluminum fluoride further support is limited, although the downstream aluminum market is better, but did not increase the demand for aluminum fluoride, no purchase is expected next week, no market,
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