Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (January 27): 18266.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of NBR was 18266.67 yuan / ton on the 27th, down 0.72% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of raw butadiene continued to fall, and the cost side was weak. According to the business news agency, as of January 27, the price of butadiene was 6057 yuan / ton. On the other hand, under the influence of environmental protection policies, some downstream factories have stopped work or reduced their load in the near future, the demand for NBR is weak, the price of NBR has dropped, and the ex factory price of some manufacturers has been lowered. On the 26th, the ex factory price of NBR in shunze of Ningbo was lowered by 1500 yuan / T, the ex factory price of shunze 3355 was 16500 yuan / T, and the market mainstream was around 17000 yuan / T.

Future forecast: the cost side is weakening, the demand side is weakening, and the Spring Festival is approaching, it is expected that the NBR market price will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol in Shandong fell from 10750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.19%, up 48.92% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol fell this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 75.74 on January 22.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical quoted 10000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 600 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Lihuayi quoted 9900 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this weekend, down 750 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 11000 yuan / ton of ISO octanol this week, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol rose this week, with the quoted price rising from 7465.64 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7486.36 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.28%, and a year-on-year increase of 9.01%. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell slightly. DOP quotation fell from 9475.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9425.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.53%, up 29.11% year on year. The price of downstream DOP fell, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase octanol weakened, the demand for octanol was general, and the future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the trend of Shandong octanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, and the octanol supply was normal. Business community octanol analysts believe that: in late January, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of octanol market in Shandong, octanol market may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the dichloromethane market in Shandong has been strong and upward recently. As of January 25, the average price in Shandong was about 3780 yuan / ton, up 0.8% from last week and 8% from the beginning of this month.

In recent years, the market in Shandong Province has a strong high level, and the overall market has started steadily. Due to the centralized stock preparation in the downstream market before the festival, and the self use of Dongyue products, the spot supply of dichloromethane is tight, and the market price is firm and upward. At present, the price of dichloromethane is about 3720-3780 yuan / ton in Shandong, 3800 yuan / ton in East China and 3650 yuan / ton in Jiangxi.

The raw material methanol market is in a downward shock. The mainland’s olefin procurement in Northwest China is shrinking and the demand in Hebei and Shandong is weak. Some road sections are blocked, which affects the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi. However, the impact degree is uncertain, which is about 2335 yuan / ton at present. The liquid chlorine market is stable, the transportation capacity of the industry is limited, and the shipment of enterprises is slowing down The epidemic situation rebounded in some areas and the market demand was flat. At present, the mainstream quotation in the industry is about 500-600 yuan / ton.

The market trend of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, but the automobile industry continued to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere was light. The supply of goods on the floor is sufficient, and the market will be affected by new production capacity in the future. The competition is fierce. The supply side is gradually bad, and the price is slightly higher, but the downstream demand is not significantly improved. The solvent, pharmaceutical and pesticide industries start flat, and the support for dichloromethane is general.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the concentration of dichloromethane in the downstream market continues, the market supply is stable and tight, and the enterprise warehouse pressure is not large. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be strong in a short time.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to rise after new year’s day. As of the 22nd, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10070 yuan / ton, up 5.67% compared with 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decline of 1.66%.

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly rising. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is slightly tight, and the floor price continues to rise.

First of all, the market price of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose. As of the 22nd, the domestic price of fluorite was 2730 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.41% in January. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight. With the decrease of temperature, some manufacturers in the North stopped their plants, and the supply in the yard was slightly tight. The domestic price of fluorite rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite on the floor is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rises due to the positive support.

The domestic refrigerant market rose slightly. Recently, the sales market of the automobile industry has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The trend of the refrigerant industry has increased, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the refrigerant export volume has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 13500-16000 yuan / ton. The market trend of domestic R134a rose slightly, but the auto industry continued to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere was light. The supply of goods on the floor is sufficient, and the market will be affected by new production capacity in the future. The competition is fierce, and the supply side is gradually bad. The price is slightly higher, but the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher.

Third: the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are overhauled in the hydrofluoric acid yard, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is 9600-10500 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly rising, and the manufacturers reflect that they are bullish in the near future, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period has a greater driving force.

In general, due to the high price of raw material fluorite, the price of downstream refrigerants rose slightly, and the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. Supported by multiple positive factors, Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business community, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the ethyl acetate market continued to rise due to the sharp rise in the cost side and the centralized stocking of downstream products. As of January 20, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 7675 yuan / ton, up 16.73% from the same period last week and 8.48% from the beginning of this month.

Affected by the continuous high price of raw material acetic acid, the cost side support of ethyl acetate is strong. In addition, the downstream market concentrates on pre holiday stock, and the market supply is tight. The overall transaction in the industry is positive. With the completion of enterprise maintenance, the future supply is expected to increase. At present, it is about 7800-7900 yuan / ton in East China, 7600-7700 yuan / ton in North China and 8100-8200 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. Affected by the reduction of enterprise maintenance burden and downstream centralized stock preparation, the spot supply of acetic acid market was reduced, and the trade and investment in the industry were in good condition. In some areas, it was difficult to obtain one product, and the supply side gap could not be effectively made up in a short time. In terms of ethanol, the price of corn continues to rise, traders and farmers are reluctant to sell, and the short-term price remains high. At present, the price of ethanol in East China is about 7312 yuan / ton.

Ethyl acetate analysts of business news agency believe that the current domestic ethyl acetate Market is in short supply, the market demand is stable, and the cost side continues to rise. The double benefits support the strong operation of the ethyl acetate Market. It is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will remain strong before the end of the month.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 20, the average quotation price of domestic high-grade DMF enterprises was 9900 yuan / ton, and the domestic DMF market price was increased by a wide margin, with an increase of about 2000 yuan / ton in just a few days, with the focus of the negotiation on a high level.

The quotation of domestic DMF market is firm, the negotiation price rises slightly, and the price of domestic DMF market rises. Near the end of the year, the traders have compact stock preparation, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, the negotiation center is high, the price is willing to support, the downstream just needs to purchase, the trading volume of new orders has increased, the buying mentality still exists, and the inventory is normal. East China market is 10400-10600 yuan / ton, South China market is 10750-11000 yuan / ton.

The upstream methanol market is in stable operation as a whole, the price in Guangdong increases slightly, the operating rate is normal, Shandong Hualu region is in stable operation, South China, northeast and southwest regions are in stable operation, East China has a slight upward trend, and the methanol market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

On January 19, the chemical industry index was 841 points, up 4 points from yesterday, down 17.22% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 40.64% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the domestic DMF market is relatively strong, the focus of negotiation is on the high side, and the negotiation atmosphere is good. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business DMF analysts. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

This week, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, the domestic refined oil price adjustment ushered in “five consecutive rises”, and the refinery refined oil price slightly pushed up. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of gasoline on January 15 was 5847 yuan / ton, up 1.02% from the beginning of the week; the price of diesel on January 15 was 4868 yuan / ton, up 0.41% from the beginning of the week.

This week, the international crude oil market was frequently positive. Saudi Arabia significantly reduced production and reduced crude oil exports to the United States. The U.S. crude oil inventory showed a downward trend, and vaccines started. The market expected that the epidemic situation would be effectively controlled. This week, the international oil price fluctuated at a high level. WTI crude oil price rose by 2.55% and Brent crude oil price rose by 0.77%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the cold weather in winter increases the willingness to travel by car, and the price of domestic refined oil increases for five consecutive years, resulting in the increased willingness to trade at the end of the refined oil market and the upward price of gasoline market. In terms of diesel demand, due to the cold weather, the demand for outdoor diesel oil such as engineering and infrastructure is declining. At present, the diesel market mostly relies on the rigid demand of logistics, transportation, mining and other industries However, the price of diesel is weak.

As of January 15, the average operating load of daily decompression unit was about 74%, the operating load of refinery remained high, and the supply of domestic refined oil market was sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, product oil analyst of business society, believes: with the advance of vaccination and the favorable support of OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, the international oil price is expected to remain high in the short term. In addition, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches and the price of refined oil rises, it is expected that the price of refined oil will continue to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4137.50 yuan / ton on the 4th, and 4150.00 yuan / ton on the 15th, with an increase of 0.30%. The current price is flat on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.60%.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market rose slightly, the floor trading atmosphere was acceptable, the market supply was insufficient, and the downstream factories mostly took the goods on demand. The potassium nitrate manufacturers had a positive attitude, and the potassium nitrate market rose slightly. According to the statistics of the business society, this week, the domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers quoted 3900-4500 yuan / ton (quotation for reference only), and the quotations were different according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers Rose: the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory price was 2050 yuan / ton, which increased by 30 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was mainly based on negotiation; Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution price was 2300 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Potassium chloride market inventory low this week, the market rose slightly.

In the near future, some domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have been overhauled, the supply of goods is tight, and the subsequent supply may continue to decrease. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

According to the bulk data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic dichloromethane market continues to rise. As of January 14, the average price in Shandong was about 3650 yuan / ton, up 10.61% from the beginning of this week and 4.29% from the beginning of this month.

At present, the domestic dichloromethane market is strong and upward, and the overall start-up of enterprises is maintained at about 70%. Some enterprises execute export orders and use them for their own use. Therefore, the overall market inventory is not under pressure. In addition, the downstream market prepares goods in advance, and the market trading performance is still good, so the price of dichloromethane continues to rise. At present, the price of dichloromethane is about 3550-3650 yuan / ton in Shandong, 3700 yuan / ton in East China and 3750 yuan / ton in Liwen, Jiangxi.

The market performance of raw material methanol is general, and the prices of the mainland and ports have declined. The overall situation of the mainland has declined due to the shrinking olefin procurement in Northwest China and the weak demand in Hebei and Shandong. The blockade of some road sections has affected the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi, but the degree of impact is uncertain at present, about 2370 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is stable and downward, the transportation capacity is declining, the enterprise shipment is slowing down, coupled with the rebound of the epidemic situation in Hebei, the market demand is poor, and the current mainstream quotation in the industry is about 500-600 yuan / ton.

The downstream refrigerant market is still relatively strong with strong cost support. It is expected that it will be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. More attention should be paid to the market information guidance. The solvent, pharmaceutical and pesticide industries started flat, and the support for dichloromethane is general.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that at present, the dichloromethane market as a whole has little reservoir pressure, enterprises have a good intention to support the price, and the demand in some areas is flat. With the price of dichloromethane rising to a high level, the industry is cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be strong in a short time, and there is still room for downward trend in the future.

In 2020, the price of NBR dropped from 16333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 13266 yuan / ton on April 21.

From late April to early September, the price of NBR fluctuated between 13266 yuan / ton and 14000 yuan / ton. The price of NBR fluctuated in a narrow range in the second and third quarters, which was mainly affected by raw materials and supply and demand side. On the one hand, the operating rate of NBR was low, basically hovering below 60-70%. Although the operating rate rose after August, the supply side was relatively tight in the third and fourth quarters, which formed a certain support for NBR; on the other hand, the cost side of Brent crude oil was between 20-44 US dollars / barrel, which was low The price of NBR was suppressed; in addition, although the demand side was better than that at the beginning of the year, it still did not reach the previous ideal state, so the demand side was also bad for NBR.

At the beginning of September, the price of NBR began to rise rapidly, from 13583 yuan / ton in early September to 19566 yuan / ton on December 15, the highest point of the year, and then dropped slightly to 19000 yuan / ton at the end of the year. Although the rise in the third and fourth quarters was also driven by the rebound of raw material prices in the early stage, it was mainly affected by the supply and demand side in the later stage. First, the price of raw materials rose, forming support for NBR. The price of butadiene increased from 5612 yuan / ton in early September to 9938 yuan / ton in late November, with an overall increase of 77.08%. Secondly, the operating rate of jinjiuyinshi NBR continued to drop to 75%, with little pressure on the supply side; finally, since September, the epidemic situation abroad continued to be serious, the demand for medical NBR gloves was strong, the supply of NBR latex exceeded the demand, and the price rose to nearly 30000 yuan / ton. Driven by profits, some manufacturers switched production lines of NBR and switched to NBR latex. The supply of other brands of NBR in the market decreased. In addition, the operating rate of downstream insulation foaming and hose industries of jinjiuyinshi traditional NBR dry rubber increased compared with the previous period. The whole demand side showed a strong performance and had a rigid support for NBR dry rubber.

As shown in the figure above, the trend of butadiene in 2020 will have a partial impact on NBR. At the beginning of the year, the price of butadiene dropped from 8312 yuan / ton to 3501 yuan / ton on April 16, with an overall drop of 57.88%, but the price of NBR only dropped by 18.87%. Butadiene prices began to rebound in late July, while NBR remained in a narrow range. Butadiene and NBR began to synchronize in October, and the decline rate of butadiene in December was significantly lower than that of NBR again. To sum up, the price of NBR in 2020 will be affected not only by butadiene, but also by supply and demand side.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that at present, due to the epidemic situation has not improved in the short term, the consumption of medical gloves is still huge, and the demand for nitrile rubber latex is strong, so as to continue to boost the nitrile dry rubber market; in addition, the OPEC meeting has reached an agreement, there will be no huge increase in crude oil in the next few months, the bullish atmosphere of crude oil will be stronger, and the raw material cost will have a certain impact in the next few months It is expected that the price of NBR will remain at a high level in the first half of 2021, and even if it falls, the range will not be too large. In the second half of 2021, with the vaccination of Xinguan vaccine, the epidemic situation may tend to be well controlled, and the consumption of medical gloves may fall to a certain extent. At that time, the price of NBR will fall to a certain extent. However, with the improvement of macro economy, the price of NBR will rise steadily. On the whole, the price of NBR will show a V-shaped trend in 2021, and it will be an annual low in 2021.