April 29 supply shortage supports tin price rise

The majority of the non-ferrous metal market rose on the night of the 28th, laying the foundation for the majority of the rise in the metal futures market in the morning. As of the noon of the 29th, Shanghai tin rose by more than 3%. Driven by the futures market, the mainstream quotation range of the domestic spot tin market on the 29th was 191500-192500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 192000 yuan / ton, up 6000 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On the night of the 28th, the US dollar index fell to a new low in nearly two months, and the non-ferrous metal market was boosted by most of the gains. The registered warehouse volume released by LME showed that Lunxi was only 1300 tons, and low inventory triggered the market’s concern about the shortage of tin supply. On Wednesday night, Lunxi rose 4.06% to a new high in the year.

On the supply side, Malaysia Smelter Group (MSc) announced that it has a maintenance plan in the near future, involving about 50% of the production capacity of the plant, which is expected to last for nine months and be completed by the end of 2021. In addition to the impact of local public health events, the overseas tin supply was under great pressure during the year. Recently, the domestic environmental protection inspection has been carried out severely. A large number of smelters have shut down fuming furnaces, and the start-up of enterprises is insufficient. As the environmental protection inspection team is about to withdraw in May, the domestic refined tin production is expected to pick up.

Near the May Day holiday, downstream factories have a certain demand for goods preparation. However, the recent high price of tin ingots has suppressed the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to enter the market. At present, they only maintain the rigid demand for purchasing. In May, the strict environmental inspection in Yunnan, Jiangxi, Anhui and other places is over. Smelters will gradually return to normal, and the domestic supply is expected to recover, which will improve the current situation of supply shortage.

In the future, the business community thinks that the supply side is tight and has a certain support for the tin price. It is expected that the tin price will be stronger in the future.



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