Price Trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market was tidied up narrowly. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 9667 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 10,000 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.33% increase in the week, 5.13% maximum amplitude in the week, 17.64% rise in the price cycle, 22.05% decline over the previous year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market was weaker. Although Sinopec’s price continued to rise by 200 yuan/ton, the price of northern export manufacturers fell to about 9000 yuan/ton. Due to the weak trend of the downstream synthetic rubber market, the high butadiene level has led to the prominent cost pressure of manufacturers. In the week, the butadiene-styrene and cis-butadiene rubber industry started to go down to a certain extent. In addition, the latex industry just needs to support weak, and the overall demand for butadiene weakened. Recently, northern manufacturers export normally, and a small amount of Fushun Petrochemical supply, the market supply increased slightly, weak supply and demand dragged most of the nodal manufacturers on Thursday, aggravating the market downturn. In terms of price, Shandong’s top-grade products are delivered at a price reference of 9700-9800 yuan/ton, a drop of 600 yuan/ton annually, while East China’s deliveries at a price reference of 10300-10400 yuan/ton, a drop of 200 yuan/ton annually, and the market inquiry atmosphere is depressed.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term shutdown; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding export trading range 9510-9518 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29 and plans to restart.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, only CNOOC Northeast sales of styrene-butadiene rubber prices down, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber factory prices as a whole stable, dry rubber 1502 billing price 10600-10700 yuan/ton, stable than last period; styrene-butadiene rubber 1712 billing price 9600-9750 yuan/ton, stable than last period. Market prices fell, Qilu 1502E quoted near 10,600 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton lower than last week; Qilu 1712 quoted at 9,650 yuan/ton; Qilu 1712 quoted 250 yuan/ton lower than last week.
Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable; the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable in the range of 10600-10800 yuan/ton; only CNOOC Northeast Sales Company returns to the mainstream price and adjusts it. Mainstream offer prices fell to the range of 10800-11100 yuan/ton, which is different from last week’s decline of 100-400 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the external market is high, Sinopec’s price is rising and its supply is limited. On the negative side, the overall decline of the cis-butadiene rubber industry led to a negative downstream mentality. Although Sinopec and external prices are high, and the market is difficult to replenish shipments, which supports some businesses’mentality, the short-term northern export manufacturers’ business is not smooth, dragging down the supply price, the initial decline of the market, downstream wait-and-see mentality is more obvious. At the same time, with the restart of Sirbang Petrochemical Plant and the steady operation of Nanjing Chengzhi, the overall market supply is expected to increase significantly. Business analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly next week. It is suggested that attention be paid to supplier prices and transaction conditions.

Commodity Index: On August 9, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 100.41, which was the same as yesterday. It was 6.27% lower than the peak of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and 4.90% higher than the low of 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: According to the monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com), on August 1, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cationic) market was about 16466.67 yuan/ton, and on the 9th, 16433.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market showed a slight downward trend. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton. In late last month, some markets were affected by the notice of environmental shutdown. Some manufacturers in Gongyi City stopped production. Some manufacturers had sufficient supply of goods. Some manufacturers reported that prices would rise in the future. However, the market outside Henan was not affected much. On the premise of stable downstream demand, prices fell somewhat this week.

Industry chain: It is known that the price of acrylonitrile in the upstream is about 11750 yuan/ton on the 5th day of this week, and 12000 yuan/ton on the 9th day, with a weekly increase of about 2.13%. The downstream demand has not changed much. It is understood that the current production of polyacrylamide manufacturers is normal, this week the upstream and downstream has little impact on it.

Industry: On July 26, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “stop-production notice”. The notice requests that according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and the future polluted weather situation in the whole city, the city attack and fortification office require all the deep treatment enterprises to stop production and control before acceptance, and dispatch or control according to fortification or fortification. After acceptance, it can be returned to production. Gongyi City, Henan Province, issued a circular on the deep management of enterprise shutdown management (see below): ___________.

Future Market Forecast: At present, there is no market expectation that some manufacturers in the early stage believe that the price of products will rise frequently and the range is “hard to say” during the shutdown period, and the output of some local manufacturers is not affected. Some of the major quotation companies currently monitored by business associations are in normal start-up and good supply. They continue to pay attention to the follow-up market changes under environmental protection requirements.

1. Melamine price trend:

According to the data of business associations, as of August 9, the market price of melamine had been lowered. At present, the mainstream price of melamine in China is 5400-6000 yuan/ton, which is 3.12% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Melamine market price down. At present, the downstream demand of some production enterprises has not been substantially improved, the market lacks strong favorable factors to support, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere of the melamine market remains unchanged. At present, the market reference price of melamine in Xinjiang is around 5200 yuan/ton, that in Sichuan is around 5500 yuan/ton, and that in Henan is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The upstream urea market has fallen again and again in recent March. On May 1, 2019, the average price quoted by the main urea producers in Shandong Province was 230.00 yuan/ton, while on August 9, the average price quoted by urea producers was 1868.33 yuan/ton, down 161.67 yuan/ton, or 7.96%.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future market forecast:

Melamine analysts believe that the fall of urea upstream, the cost of melamine negative, downstream demand is weak, the overall trading climate is weak, it is expected that in the short term, the market of melamine will be mainly weak operation, more attention still needs to be paid to the start-up rate of production enterprises.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of ammonium sulfate dropped this month. The average price of domestic ammonium sulfate at the beginning of this month was 720 yuan/ton, and the average price of ammonium sulfate at the end of this month was 660 yuan/ton, down by 8.33%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is quoted at 550-740 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Northeast is quoted at 650 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Henan is quoted at 600-700 yuan/ton, the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is quoted at 600-660 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is quoted at 550-600 yuan/ton. The mainstream ammonium sulfate factory quotation in East China is about 700 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price of domestic sulphuric acid Market in the upstream has been slightly lowered. After adjustment, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired, the production capacity has risen, and the price has been slightly lowered in the case of upstream and downstream game. The downstream compound fertilizer market is flat, and the start-up rate has increased slightly. Environmental protection efforts have been strengthened in some areas, and compound fertilizer enterprises have been actively engaged in production to prevent production restrictions.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current off-season ammonium sulfate market demand is limited, downstream cautious wait-and-see, prices at a low pull up difficult. The weak market of coking grade was consolidated, the environmental protection production restriction was intensified, and the downstream demand was sluggish, which led to the decline of the market. Lactam-grade prices are strong, mainstream exports, supply is tight. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate Market will continue to consolidate its downturn in the later period, and prices will remain weak and stable or fall.

According to the statistics of the Chinese Customs, from January to June 2019, China exported 12.61 million tons of fertilizers, of which 2.04 million tons of fertilizers, 16.8 million tons of potassium chloride, 58.2 million tons of potassium sulfate and 0.87 million tons of potassium nitrate were exported in June.

From January to June 2019, China imported 5.434 million tons of other potassium chloride (except pure potassium chloride) and 27.6 million tons of potassium sulfate. In June alone, 609,000 tons of other potassium chloride and 67,000 tons of potassium sulfate were imported.

I. Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business associations, this week (7.22-7.26) domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices rose slightly, at the beginning of the week at 10,450 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week at 10,512 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.6%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (7.22-7.26) domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical factory ex-factory price is stable, as of July 26, Daqing Petrochemical cis-butadiene rubber ex-factory price 10400 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: In June 2019, China imported 441,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, and 307.6 tons in January-June. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 7.7%.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices rose sharply this week, the cost of cis-butadiene rubber support. Butadiene was 8,545 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8,890 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 4.04% as a whole, according to the business association.

Supply: According to statistics, in June 2019, the domestic production of synthetic rubber was 506,000 tons, up 12.7% year-on-year; in January-June, the domestic production of synthetic rubber was 2.904 million tons, up 4.3% year-on-year.

Demand: According to statistics, in June 2019, the domestic rubber tyre tyre output was 70.279 million, down 2.45% annually, up 3.2% year-on-year; in January-June, the domestic rubber tyre output was 403.745 million, down 1.0% year-on-year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the rising price of crude oil butadiene in the upstream supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber, on the other hand, the ring ratio of tire production in the downstream rubber market is decreasing, which creates a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber. Later look at the cis-butadiene rubber market will form a turbulent situation.

Price Trend

On July 26, the TDI commodity index was 72.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.70% from the cycle peak of 248.02 points (2016-10-19), and up 20.76% from the lowest point of 60.17 on February 22, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Product: According to statistics, the price trend of TDI in East China market is temporarily stable. The price of TDI in East China market is 13733.33 yuan/ton as of 26. The market of TDI in East China is on the strong side, and the overall atmosphere of the venue is slightly increased. However, the following-up is still depressed, the mindset of the operators is divergent, and the high and low quotations coexist. Domestic goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13500-13700 yuan/ton, Shanghai goods with tickets out of the warehouse offer reference 13700-13900 yuan/ton, a single talk, mainly practical negotiations.

Industry chain: Upstream toluene, compared with the previous trading day, Sinopec’s enterprises today’s toluene listing price unchanged. Shandong Geotechnical Refining Company’s listing price was lowered by about 50 yuan/ton today. Traders today quoted a steady price, East China quoted about 5480 yuan / ton; nitric acid, the market demand is still acceptable, the market is temporarily stable.

Industry: There are slight differences in the mindset of the on-site traders. The offer is rising steadily and interacting with each other. The atmosphere of inquiry and trading is still light, and the follow-up is not smooth. However, with the announcement of Basf’s listing, the mindset of the traders has become stronger and the stage of supply-demand game is in progress.

III. Price Forecast

TDI business analysts believe that the short-term domestic TDI market is stable and relatively strong, focusing on factory information surface guidance.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic PS market quotation is mainly stable, the market turnover is flat, the buying mentality is confused, mostly wait-and-see mood. At present, the latest GPPS mainstream quotation is 9850-10500 yuan/ton, and HIPS mainstream quotation is 10500-12000 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

PS market quotation: Guangzhou Petrochemical PS factory price 525 quoted 9550 yuan/ton. Zhanjiang Sino-US PS ex-factory price, 525 quoted for 10,000 yuan/ton. CITIC Guoan PS ex-factory price, 525 quoted for 10,100 yuan/ton. The market is stable in delivery and the atmosphere is general.

3. Future Market Forecast

PS market is mainly stable. Lower downstream factories are not willing to accept goods, resulting in less actual turnover, and the market is still under downward pressure. It is expected that the PS market will move steadily on the whole and be partially consolidated.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, propylene (Shandong) declined rapidly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 8,175 yuan per ton. On Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 7,655 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 6.36%. Compared with the initial monthly price of 7669 yuan/ton, it fell by only 0.18%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong started to rise in early July, after two rounds of increase of about 600 yuan/ton. Since the 13th day, the price has fallen to about 650 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover has fallen to about 7600-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price has fallen to 7600 yuan/ton, which has fallen back to the price at the beginning of July. This week, the supply of propylene in Shandong Province has loosened due to an increase in Northeast China’s supply and relatively low prices. At present, the inventory pressure of refineries is rising, and the enthusiasm of discharging warehouses is increasing, but the increase of market procurement is not large.

Industry chain: Upstream, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply this week, which has a significant negative impact on propylene. On the downstream side, the propylene oxide market also fell this week by nearly 3%, which had a bearish effect on propylene; this week, acrylic acid prices remained stable throughout the whole line, which had little impact on propylene; and this week, polypropylene futures were running at a low level, spot prices were slightly lower, or the market was dominated by weak finishing, which had no positive effect on propylene; this week, epichlorohydrin had no positive effect on propylene. The market continued to soar, the weekly increase is still as high as 5.4%, which has a significant positive impact on propylene; butyl octanol market slightly declined this week, which has a negative impact on propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that: in general, the recent downturn in international crude oil is obvious, the spot market of polypropylene is relatively flat, the prices of propylene oxide and butyl octanol have declined, the market of acrylic acid is flat, the market of epichlorohydrin is still rising, some refineries are reworked, the inventory pressure of refineries has increased, and purchasing is relatively high. The price of propylene is expected to decline in the near future.

Price trends:

According to statistics, this week’s domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene showed a temporary steady trend, with an average weekend price of 7,000 yuan/ton, a temporary steady trend compared with the price of 7,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 7.89% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable, the domestic PX start-up rate maintains more than 70%, Huizhou refining and chemical plant runs steadily, Fuhaichuang plant starts a line, Pengzhou Petrochemical plant runs steadily, Yangtze Petrochemical PX plant runs normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant runs smoothly, Qingdao Lidong plant runs at full load, Qi Luzhou Petrochemical Unit runs steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Unit starts about 50%, Hengli Petrochemical Unit runs normally, domestic p-xylene supply is normal, recent international crude oil prices rise, domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of p-xylene plant in Asia is more than 70% this week. The supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX external market rose this week. By the end of the weekend, the closing price of P-xylene market in Asia was US$869-871/ton FOB Korea and US$888-890/ton CFR China. Over 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The closing price of PX external market was US$888-890/ton CFR China. The rise has brought some benefits to the domestic market, and the price trend of the domestic PX market is temporarily stable.

Industry Chain: Domestic crude oil prices closed higher this week. As of November 11, US WTI crude oil futures price was $60.20 per barrel, Brent crude oil August futures price was $66.52 per barrel. This week, crude oil closing price rose slightly, which has a certain cost support role for downstream petrochemical products. PX market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the downstream PTA market price trend slightly declined. This week, the decline was 0.82%. By the end of the weekend, the East China PTA market talks were around 6550-6650 yuan. The upstream raw material PX market price trend was stable. This week, the PTA plant start-up rate maintained about 90%, while the downstream polyester plant start-up rate was about 88%, and the textile start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces maintained 75%. About, downstream PTA and polyester products start-up rate maintained high, PTA price decline has a negative effect on the market price of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Industry: This week, the textile industry has been in a turbulent trend. The textile industry has maintained a high start-up rate. Crude oil prices have risen slightly. The raw material PX market is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that crude oil prices have risen recently, but PTA market prices have slightly declined, downstream textile industry start-up rate has not changed much, domestic PX market supply is normal, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile next week.