1、 Price trend

 

 

According to the data of business agency, after last week’s big rise, the price of glycol fell in shock this week. On December 20, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 5500 yuan / ton, down 0.9% from last week, slightly down.

 

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 5375 yuan / ton. After one week’s adjustment, the price on Friday was 5390 yuan / ton, down 4.6% from last weekend.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

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As of December 18, the comprehensive daily operation rate of glycol unit is 66.14%, up 1.69%; among them, the operation rate of non coal unit is 63.01%, up 2.06%; the operation rate of coal unit is 70.56%, up 1.17%.

 

On December 18, 400000 tons of ethylene glycol project of Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. and a 90000 tons of ethylene glycol line of 1.8 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. were put into operation successively; on December 20, the ethylene link of 750000 tons of ethylene glycol project of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was put into operation, and the output is expected to be 24 days.

 

As of Thursday, ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 302000 tons, an increase of 9500 tons from Monday. Including 149000 tons in Zhangjiagang, 60000 tons in Ningbo, 15000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, and 35000 tons in Taicang.

 

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According to the news, between December 19 and December 25, the main port of East China is expected to deliver 229000 tons, Zhangjiagang port is expected to deliver 100000 tons, Taicang port is expected to deliver 36000 tons and Ningbo port is expected to deliver 30000 tons.

 

In the downstream, the polyester starting load is 86.15%, which is stable compared with last week. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70%, and the link ratio drops about 3 points. The overall profit of polyester filament is in the middle and lower level.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Glycol analysts believe that after last week’s inventory reduction caused by a sharp rise, glycol prices are currently at a recent high, there is room for a correction. This week’s port shipment is general, and the arrival is still delayed. The following week’s shipment arrives at the port as scheduled, and the accumulated warehouse will be inevitable. In addition, due to the simultaneous feeding of three new units, the output will increase significantly if there is no accident. The downstream polyester Market released the production reduction plan before and after the Spring Festival. At present, the unit operation rate has declined slightly. Based on the above factors, it is expected that the price of glycol will continue to fluctuate and fall in the near future.

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