I. price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic PP market in the first half of December was volatile and weak. As of Friday, December 13, some spot prices were lower than the beginning of the month. The main offer price of T30S from domestic producers and traders is about 8133.33 yuan / ton, down 2.01% from the beginning of the week.
II. Cause analysis
Upstream: according to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the market price of PP raw material propylene in China has declined continuously in recent years. At the beginning of December, affected by the international crude oil “Black Friday” market, the price began to decline all the way. In the near future, due to the impact of heavy fog in Shandong Province, the logistics is not smooth, and the external supply is blocked, which supports the propylene market. On the outside, US polymer grade propylene spot price fell to the lowest level in more than three years on Thursday, which also had a negative impact on propylene. On the upstream side, the OPEC + meeting delayed and strengthened the production reduction agreement, and the international crude oil rose sharply, which had a positive impact on propylene. The downstream procurement is still good, which has a certain positive impact on propylene. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to stabilize and recover in recent days.
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Product: upstream propylene is weak, and the average operating rate of domestic PP polymerization enterprises this week is about 95.09%, slightly higher than that of last week, and there is no news of shutdown and maintenance device in the near future. It is expected that the operation rate of domestic polypropylene enterprises will be stable next week. In terms of inventory, the total PP inventory of each sales company of two barrels of oil continued to decline slightly, and the inventory of traders also continued to decline. At present, the operation of petrochemical enterprises is still inclined to destocking, the mentality of the operators is short, and the factory price is difficult to go higher. The operation rate of downstream plants increased slightly, but the improvement of PP demand has not yet appeared. Generally speaking, the trading volume is still weak, and the price support is not good. The propylene market price in Shandong continues to decline. In terms of external news, the International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate to 3% in 2019, the lowest growth rate in 10 years, which hit market confidence.
III. future forecast
According to PP analysts of business club, domestic PP prices fell in the first half of December. The upstream propylene market is weak and the cost end support is limited. There is no centralized purchase for the downstream factories, the confidence of the operators is insufficient, the quotation keeps falling, and the operation is cautious. It is expected that PP market will continue to adjust at a low level in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the change of propylene market at the cost end in the near future.
http://www.lubonchem.com/ |