The factory raised 150-200 yuan / ton intensively, and the market followed the upward trend. The negotiation reference was 9350-9400 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the port inventory decreased to 26000 tons, and there was little pressure on import. With the help of the centralized increase of petrochemical enterprises, it was difficult to find the supply of low-cost goods on the site, and the high opening of cargo holders pushed up obviously. However, the downstream was still cautious in chasing up, and the on-site inquiry was flat. As of press time, the major mainstream market offers are as follows: the offer in East China is 9380 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 9300 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 9450 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Weekly k-column chart of ex factory price in East China

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene is rising in Shandong, and new units will be put into operation in the downstream. The market negotiation atmosphere is positive, and the price has continuously risen to the high level of 6850-6900 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise in East China, pure benzene has continued to rise in the first half of the week. However, with the continuous rise in the price of pure benzene, the resistance in the downstream has increased, the follow-up mood has dropped, and the downstream devices have not been put into operation as scheduled, so the mentality of the industry has changed to caution. It is heard that pure benzene in East China port will continue to accumulate in the next week, and the inventory pressure will further depress the market mentality. Pure benzene fell continuously in the second half of the week. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 6600 yuan / ton (some enterprises in North China increased by 400 yuan / ton).

propylene (Shandong) prices fell slightly and showed a consolidation trend. As of Friday, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7400-7450 yuan / ton. According to statistics, by the end of November, China’s total propylene production capacity was 49.94 million tons / year, and the new production capacity reached 5.24 million tons / year. Excluding some obsolete production capacity, there are still new projects to be put into operation in December. It is expected that China’s propylene production capacity will exceed 50 million tons by the end of the year. There are sufficient sources of goods on site At the same time, the demand boost is limited, and the price reduction is mainly to let the profit go.

In late December, the domestic bisphenol a market fluctuated in a narrow range. This week, the offer of manufacturers was stable, some factories suspended the offer, and there were few sources of middlemen. At present, the market offer of bisphenol A in mainstream North China and East China is 16100-16200 yuan / ton, and there are few spot resources in North China. The bidding price of a petrochemical enterprise in East China is 14800 yuan / ton (agreement product) and 14900 yuan / ton (first-class product).

From the perspective of business society, at present, the seller has strong upward sentiment and the market price is not low. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to operate at a high level in late December, and the registration price in East China phenol Market is 9400-9450 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of December 22, the average price of melamine enterprises was 9600.00 yuan / ton, down 21.53% compared with last Thursday (December 16), 45.25% compared with November 22, and 44.51% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the quotation of melamine enterprises is 9400 yuan / ton ~ 10500 yuan / ton.

Recently, the market price of melamine has stopped falling and returned to rise. In terms of cost, the price of raw material urea has increased slightly recently, and the price of melamine has fallen sharply in the early stage. At present, the cost pressure is obvious. On the supply side, the operating rate of melamine market is still at a high level, but the inventory pressure of enterprises is not large temporarily, and enterprises have sufficient orders received in advance. On the demand side, enquiries in the export market have increased, and domestic trade has not improved significantly. Melamine market atmosphere has improved, and the price has stopped falling and returned to rise.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell on December 22, up 0.48% from December 16. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have been adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, the cost support of urea is weakened, the downstream demand is general, the urea supply is insufficient, and the future urea mainly decreases slightly.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, there is a certain support on the cost side. In addition, the delivery of goods by enterprises is acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may focus on stable, medium and strong operation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

The price of orthobenzene remained stable this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the quotation of o-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of December 20, Sinopec’s listing price was 6300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of o-xylene on December 13 last week. The adjacent benzene market is strong and stable for the time being.

The price of raw materials fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of mixed xylene, a raw material of ortho benzene, fluctuated and rose this week, and the market of mixed xylene fluctuated and rose. The price of raw materials rises and the cost of o-xylene rises; The downward pressure on the price of ortho benzene weakened and the upward momentum increased.

Downstream market recovery

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week, and the phthalic anhydride market recovered. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the market of phthalic anhydride recovered, the demand for phthalic acid rose, the downward pressure of phthalic acid weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of o-xylene raw material mixed xylene fluctuated and rose this week, the price of downstream phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of o-xylene rose, the demand recovered, the support for the rise of o-xylene increased, and the downward pressure weakened. It is expected that the market of o-xylene will be strong and stable in the future.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on December 20, the average early price of silver market was 4706 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the average early price of 4738 yuan / kg in the spot market last Friday (December 17); compared with the spot price of 5550 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01), a decrease of 15.21%.

On December 20, the spot market price of gold was 371.25 yuan / g, an increase of 0.44% compared with the spot market price of 369.63 yuan / g last Friday (December 17), an increase of 1.32% compared with the early average price of 366.42 yuan / g in the spot market price at the beginning of December (December 1); compared with the spot market price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (January 1), a decrease of 5.46%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. After the recent silver price reduction, it was adjusted at a low level.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Today’s macro policy factors

The central bank will conduct a 7-day reverse repo of RMB 10 billion and a 14 day reverse repo of RMB 10 billion in the open market today. Another 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and a net investment of 10 billion yuan was realized on the same day. The bid winning interest rate of 7-day reverse repurchase operation is 2.2% and that of 14 day reverse repurchase operation is 2.35%.

The people’s Bank of China announced the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market in December. Among them, the one-year LPR interest rate was reduced to 3.80%, 0.05% lower than the previous value of 3.85%, and the five-year LPR interest rate was maintained at 4.65%.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from December 10 to December 17, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 10166 yuan / ton to 10500 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.28% during the week, the price fell by 4.65% month on month and 54.79% year-on-year.

The domestic cyclohexanone market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, there were few export devices of cyclohexanone, and the market competition was relatively small. In addition, some downstream enterprises just needed to export cyclohexanone, cyclohexanone was reluctant to sell at a low price, and the transaction focus increased.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of December 17:

region ., Price

East China 10700-10800 yuan / ton cash vehicle delivery

South China 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 10500-10600 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of East pure benzene rises, and this round of rise is mainly driven by the price of Shandong. Shandong market immediately began to hype the news that new downstream devices were about to enter the procurement market. Traders bought goods actively and prices rose. Driven by the atmosphere of Shandong, the East China market has a large volume of paper goods, and the price has also risen rapidly.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

Downstream caprolactam: Recently, the caprolactam unit still has some load reduction and short shutdown, and the supply of caprolactam continues to decrease this week. However, over the weekend, Hualu Hengsheng and Baling Petrochemical will gradually recover. In addition, sanning and baling Hengyi will recover in the later stage, and the supply of caprolactam will increase again. With the high price of cyclohexanone, downstream procurement is cautious.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

The cost side is temporarily stable, the cyclohexanone spot supply is expected to increase, and the downstream outsourcing demand is cautious. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 7133 yuan / ton on December 10 and 6425 yuan / ton on December 16. The price of chlorinated paraffin fell by 9.93% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The raw material support of chlorinated paraffin this week is acceptable, and the downstream is purchased on demand. As of December 16, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 6100 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China was about 5600 yuan / ton, that in South China was 5600-6500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was 5300-6000 yuan / ton, and that in East China was about 6100 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax mainly operated smoothly this week, and increased sporadically in some areas. Liquid wax will maintain stable operation in a short time. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fell at the beginning of the week and began to rise in the middle of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business society believe that the price of raw materials rose steadily this week, and the cost support is acceptable. However, the downstream demand is general and the transaction atmosphere is poor. Raw liquid chlorine rose and fell first this week, and the price fluctuated frequently. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will be in shock in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of demand side and raw materials.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of December 15, the average price of melamine enterprises was 12400.00 yuan / ton, down 7.46% compared with last Wednesday (December 8), 23.14% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and 27.06% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the quotation of melamine enterprises is 9500 yuan / ton ~ 14000 yuan / ton.

Recently, the market price of melamine has fallen. Recently, the price of raw material urea has risen slightly, and the cost support is limited. At present, the operating rate of melamine market is more than 80%, but the demand side is still weak, there is no obvious improvement, the market is lack of good, many manufacturers do not offer, the trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of melamine negotiation is weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on December 14, up 0.33% from December 8. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is advancing slowly, while industrial demand is mainly on the sidelines. The future market of urea price is uncertain, the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, and the production plan is postponed. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. From the perspective of supply: the shutdown and maintenance time of gas head enterprises is delayed, and it is expected to stop one after another in mid December. At present, the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that the recent slight rise in urea price, general cost support, high start-up on the supply side, weak support on the demand side and lack of market confidence. It is expected that the melamine market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 687 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on December 8; Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock is 680 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 7 yuan / ton, or 0.98%. Compared with the price on November 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock is 663 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 24 yuan / ton, or 3.52%.

In December, the domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable as a whole, the supply side was still relatively tight, the on-site inventory pressure was small, mining enterprises mostly executed contract user orders, and the downstream yellow phosphorus was prepared at the end of the year. The market gradually warmed up, providing effective support for phosphorus ore, and the transaction focus in the phosphorus ore field was strong. On the 8th, Some domestic mining enterprises in Guangxi have raised the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore. after adjustment, the freight yard price of 28% grade phosphorus ore in Guangxi is around 560-620 yuan / ton, and the freight yard price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 630-680 yuan / ton. Then, with the effective support of both supply and demand, until December 14, the domestic phosphate ore market continued to operate at a high level, and the overall supply tension in the field will be maintained in the short term. The quotation of 30% phosphate ammonium Ore Truck board in Hubei is about 660-680 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% phosphate ore in Hebei is about 700-750 yuan / ton, The freight yard price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 630-670 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 630-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 660-680 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 630-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of index, the phosphorus ore commodity index on December 13 was 125.99, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 145.21% from the lowest point of 51.38 on December 24, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

After years of development, China’s phosphorus ore industry has formed a mature industrial chain, which is mainly divided into three links. Among them, the upstream participants are phosphorus ore mining equipment suppliers, including civil blasting equipment suppliers and mining machinery equipment suppliers; The main participants in the middle reaches are phosphorus ore mining enterprises, which are the owners of phosphorus ore resources and mining technology; The downstream participants are phosphorus chemical enterprises, and the main products are yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus price has increased significantly recently. The number of enquiries in the yellow phosphorus field increased, and the downstream enterprises started preparing goods years ago. The yellow phosphorus inquiry increased significantly, the market procurement enthusiasm was high, the supply was tight, the manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and the yellow phosphorus price increased. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 42000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 42000 yuan / ton. It is reported that Yunnan began to implement the new electricity price in 2022 in January. The electricity price in Yunnan will rise, and the cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase. According to the data of business agency, as of December 14, the reference average price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan Guizhou was 43250 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.32% compared with the beginning of the month.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, towards the end of the year, the downstream has started to prepare goods one after another, and there is little change in supply and demand support in the short term. Therefore, phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of China’s domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level and stably, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (December 13): 12400 yuan / ton

On December 13, the market price of melamine fell, 2.57% lower than that on Friday, 23.14% lower than that at the beginning of the month and 32.61% lower than that on November 13. At present, the upstream urea price is temporarily stable, the cost support is limited, the downstream commencement is limited, the just need to follow up is weak, the enterprise shipment is general, the contradiction between market supply and demand is prominent, and the trading atmosphere is light.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene this week is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 55.81%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is relatively normal, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. The closing price of international crude oil rose, while the external price of PX rose slightly. As of the 9th, the closing prices were US $824-826 / T FOB Korea and US $842-844 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia has been relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia is more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the closing price of PX has little change, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices rose this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $74.42/barrel. Early this week, South Africa reported that the symptoms of local Omicron infection cases were mild. After that, the market was worried about undermining oil demand and oil prices ushered in a retaliatory rebound. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are at an impasse, the possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market is reduced, and crude oil is also supported to a certain extent. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, which benefited the oil market. OPEC +, an oil producing country, also acts as a ballast. OPEC + decided to continue to release 400000 barrels / day of production capacity as planned at the ministerial meeting on December 2, reflecting the confidence of the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the future demand prospects. The rising trend of oil price has a certain positive impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price trend rose this week. As of the 10th, the average PTA market price was 4600-4700 yuan / ton, and the PTA price rose by 4.37% this week. At present, the improvement of PTA market is mainly due to the recovery of crude oil market and the good supply side brought by centralized maintenance of units. However, the current terminal orders are still relatively light, the downstream polyester inventory is accumulated, and the raw material procurement is mainly to meet the rigid demand. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at close to 73%. The terminal orders in the terminal market are still relatively light. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.31%, and the raw material preparation of weaving factories continues to decline. At present, the normal production volume is maintained, and the preparation volume is in 2-3 weeks. On the demand side, due to the continuous decline of domestic and foreign trade orders on a month on month basis, considering that it is difficult for orders to improve before the Spring Festival, it is expected that factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will stop for vacation one after another from mid December, and the startup load will continue to decline. PTA plant in the raw material market is still planned to be overhauled, the positive support on the cost side remains, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is supported to a certain extent, and the cost side is still supporting. In addition, some downstream PTA devices may be overhauled, resulting in poor demand in the terminal textile industry. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may remain low and stabilize temporarily in the later stage.