Throughout 2021, the domestic asphalt market was strong and volatile. Since the end of the first quarter, the price has risen sharply, reached the highest point in the market at the beginning of the fourth quarter, and decreased narrowly at the end of the year, but the price increase is still obvious compared with that at the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt manufacturers in Shandong was 2462 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, and the price was 3151 yuan / ton as of December 27, an increase of 27.97% during the year. The highest price point was 3712 yuan / ton on October 22, and the lowest price point of the whole year was 2475 yuan / ton on January 4 at the beginning of the year, with a maximum amplitude of 49.98%.
Annual comparison chart of asphalt price of business society from 2017 to 2021:
The asphalt price fluctuated significantly in the first quarter, remained stable before the festival, and increased significantly after the lunar new year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic asphalt price rose from 2462 yuan / ton to 2980 yuan / ton in the first quarter, an increase of 21.02%.
In January, some refineries and traders in Hebei and Shandong issued winter storage policies, with general prices and less acceptance by traders. At the same time, the demand in the southern market gradually weakened, the terminals were shut down one after another, the inventory of refineries accumulated slightly, and the intention of traders in the region to prepare goods was not strong. Demand constrains the price of asphalt. The extreme cold wave weather in February led to the decline of shale oil production in the United States, the tightening of supply expectations, boosted crude oil, and led to a sharp rise in international oil prices. International crude oil rose sharply, and the price of asphalt market increased significantly. In late March, driven by negative factors such as weak downward trend of international crude oil and limited demand follow-up, domestic asphalt prices rose first and then fell, and the market changes were more obvious.
Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the first quarter of 2021:
In the second quarter, the domestic asphalt market continued to rise, and the rise slowed down. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt production enterprises in Shandong increased from 3096 yuan / ton to 3430 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.76%.
In April, the overall demand recovery was limited, the mainstream market quotation was mainly narrow and volatile, and the overall trend was weak. In May, there were obvious regional differences in asphalt market, and the downstream of some northern regions just needed support, and most of the operators mainly consumed inventory; A new round of rainfall in southern China affects the progress of downstream terminals, and the operators mainly ship goods scattered. In June, affected by the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, the prices of main refineries rose, the market supply of low-cost goods gradually decreased, and the asphalt Market in Shandong continued to rise.
Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the second quarter of 2021:
In the third quarter, the domestic asphalt market fluctuated significantly, falling and rising, showing a high shock trend in the whole year’s price trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt production enterprises in Shandong increased from 3436 yuan / ton to 3536 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.89%.
In July, affected by Typhoon “fireworks”, many places ushered in rainy weather, which affected the downstream construction. The asphalt market was running at a low level. In August, affected by the environmental protection inspection of Jilin Province, Shandong Province, Hubei Province, Guangdong Province and Sichuan Province in the fourth batch of the second round in 2021, the recovery of market demand was limited, and the asphalt market was tepid. The international crude oil fluctuated at a high level in September. The support for asphalt cost is obvious, but the inspection is not over yet. Firstly, the increase of asphalt demand is not very obvious.
Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the third quarter of 2021:
In the fourth quarter, the asphalt market rose first and then fell, bearing all the declines of the whole year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic asphalt production enterprises in Shandong fell from 3536 yuan / ton to 3151 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.88%.
In October, some areas in the North entered the stage of finishing and catching up, and the demand broke out intensively. In October, it still maintained an upward trend for some time. In November, the demand in the northeast and northwest stagnated, the demand in the North showed a weakening trend, there may be a small peak in the south, and the demand in the north and south is differentiated. In November, the domestic oil price fell sharply, the largest one-day decline since April last year. The cost support weakened, superimposed with the slowdown of just demand in winter, and the asphalt market was weak. The downturn ended.
Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society in the fourth quarter of 2021:
Monthly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price of business society:
From the comparison chart of crude oil asphalt price trend of business society, it can be seen that the domestic asphalt Market in 2021 is highly consistent with the price trend of Brent crude oil.
In 2021, crude oil has been advancing all the way and rising in shock. According to the monitoring of business society, WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 22, WTI rose 46.94% and Brent crude oil rose 43.29%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, under the macro background of inflation expectations, supply tightening and economic recovery also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.
In 2022, the business society predicts that 2022 may still be the era of high oil prices.
The trend of oil price in 2021 is highly related to the change of epidemic situation. The trend of epidemic situation in 2022 may improve as a whole and have a positive impact on oil price. Although the mutant strains Delta and Omicron will still play a role, vaccination and mass immunization will continue to weaken the impact of epidemic situation, and the global economy is still in the recovery channel.
At the beginning of 2022, especially around the lunar new year, the downtime nodes of downstream terminals of asphalt in China are different, and the downtime is gradually stopped from north to south. The downtime in the north is generally too long, mainly due to seasonal factors. The low temperature in winter in the north is not conducive to road construction. It is understood that the shutdown period in the lower reaches of northeast, northwest and Inner Mongolia is about 4-5 months. During this period, asphalt manufacturers mainly store and prepare goods in winter. The downtime of Shandong, Henan, Shanxi and the downstream of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is about 2-3 months. During this period, some terminals will have a small amount of goods ready for storage. When the regional price difference is appropriate, some traders will ship goods to the south. The shutdown period in East China, South China, Southwest China, Hunan and Hubei is about one month, which is mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the terminal shutdown before and after the festival. Asphalt price is also affected, mainly in the doldrums.
Overall, the range fluctuation of asphalt market has become an inevitable trend of price trend at this stage. The crude oil is good, the demand side performance is low, and the two sides play a game. The asphalt analysts of the business society expect that the asphalt market will be mainly sorted out in the first quarter of 2022.