According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on January 15 was 132.19, an increase of 0.3 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 7.33% compared with the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and an increase of 56.77% compared with the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of water treatment products continued to fluctuate slightly in the first half of the month: the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride on the 1st was 2502.22 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 15th was about 2445.56 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.26%. Considering the current epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival, the number of enterprises that stopped production before the year increased, the inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the transaction was weak; Affected by the inventory situation, different enterprises have different prices. Some enterprises stopped production years ago and have tight inventory. Combined with the local increase of freight cost, the price of polyaluminium chloride has increased to a certain extent; It is understood that at present, most enterprises have sufficient inventory and the overall market is weak.
Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid remained flat at 324 yuan / ton in the first half of the month, which has lasted for many days. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is falling, giving poor support to hydrochloric acid, and the downstream ammonium chloride market is falling slightly. It is expected that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the near future.
LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and decreased in the first half of the month. The average domestic price was 4710 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4610 yuan / ton on January 15, down 2.12%. The domestic liquid market has changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price has also continued to decline. The decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of the early maintenance liquid plant and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, and many fell back below 5000 yuan, and the market focus moved down rapidly. The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is weak. Although the raw material gas flow auction boosts the market, the decline of domestic liquid price slows down or rises slightly, it is difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.
Future forecast: due to the current severe epidemic situation and the impact of spring break, more and more enterprises have stopped production, but the market supply is sufficient, the upstream raw material hydrochloric acid market continues to be stable, the downstream purchase intention is not strong, the trading continues to be weak, and the polyaluminium chloride Market has little change. It should be noted that the logistics costs in some areas of the main production areas will rise to a certain extent due to the epidemic and the Spring Festival, and the future market of polyaluminium chloride may rise due to this impact.