This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market as a whole continued to be weak, prices continued to be sideways, and there was no significant change in the Henan market. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3850 yuan / ton on July 5 and 3850.00 yuan / ton on July 12. The price remained unchanged during the period, up 14.58% from the same period last year.

As of July 12, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 3970 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 3800 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 3800-3870 yuan / ton

The domestic dimethyl ether market remained weak as a whole this week, and the ex factory quotation in Henan market remained unchanged for the time being. At present, the raw material methanol market continues to decline, and the cost has brought some bad news to the market. Although the civil market of liquefied gas related products has weakened and the price has been reduced, the range is not obvious, and the civil price of liquefied gas is still at a high level compared with previous years. Under the influence of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is still biased, the downstream maintains replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general. However, the manufacturer’s price support mentality is obvious, and the disk continues to remain stable.

This week, the domestic methanol market continued to fall. At present, the macro level is in a bad situation. At the same time, the breaking position of the futures market fell, and the market sentiment weakened, but the overall follow-up is not fast, and the decline is limited.

On the whole, the current raw material methanol market is weak, and the cost side has brought some bad news to the market. Although the civil market of liquefied gas related products has weakened, the overall price is high, which brings relative support to the dimethyl ether Market. The downstream market is generally enthusiastic, and multidimensional holds to make up on demand. The manufacturer’s price support mentality is obvious. The market is waiting for good guidance. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market will be sideways in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the recent trend of sulfur price has fallen sharply. On July 11, the average price of sulfur in East China was 2773.33 yuan / ton, down 20.00% compared with the price of 3466.67 yuan / ton on July 4, and down 30.20% month on month.

The enthusiasm of downstream market entry is weak, the demand for sulfur is limited, the shipment of enterprises is blocked, the inventory pressure increases, and there are low-cost sources in the market, which leads to increased resistance to the sale of refineries. Enterprises maintain the pace of shipment, and the quotation falls again and again. However, the price of crude oil at the raw material end falls, which indirectly shortens the sulfur market, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is light. In view of all factors, the support for sulfur is weak, and the market is weak. As of the 11th, the fixed sulfur price of refineries in Shandong Province was between 2300-2420 yuan / ton, with a range reduction of 950-1130 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 2350-2560 yuan / ton, and a range reduction of 1000-1150 yuan / ton.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to decline. The supply of sulfuric acid in the market was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, the enthusiasm for purchasing in the market was weak, the market atmosphere was bearish, and the price of sulfuric acid was forced to decline. As of July 11, the average price of sulfuric acid was 950 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.73% compared with the beginning of the month.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. The price of Monoammonium is stable, and the price of downstream industries is reduced. The purchase of ammonium phosphate is general. The market of diammonium is temporarily stable, the support of raw materials is weakened, the rise of diammonium market is postponed, the downstream is still resistant to high prices, and the demand is weakened. In the off-season market, the follow-up of on-site trading is weak, the market of ammonium phosphate is deadlocked, and the support for sulfur is insufficient.

According to sulfur analysts of business agency, the domestic sulfur market has fallen sharply, the trading atmosphere on the floor is light, the downstream support is weak, and the enterprise quotation has been continuously reduced. The main reason is that the downstream demand is weak, and the sulfur purchase just needs to be followed up. In addition, there is a low-cost source of goods in the market, and the manufacturers have great resistance to shipment. The negative mood in the market is obvious, and the positive factors of short-term market support have not yet appeared. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to operate in a weak manner, and the specific attention will be paid to the market follow-up.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 11, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was 7800 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that on July 4 (the reference price of n-butanol was 8000 yuan / ton), a decrease of 2.50%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that recently (7.5-7.11), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is generally weak and running downward. At the beginning of July, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong was mainly reorganized and operated, and the market performance on the floor was relatively calm. On the 8th, the quotation of n-butanol factory was slightly adjusted downward, with an adjustment range of 100 yuan / ton. The on-site transaction was weak, and the support of n-butanol market demand was loose. On the 11th, the quotation of n-butanol factory in Shandong Province was slightly reduced again, with a reduction range of 100-200 yuan / ton. As of July 11, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 7750-7850 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry is 7800 yuan / ton. At present, the market focus of n-butanol is deadlocked, and the transaction is generally poor.

In terms of upstream propylene, according to the price chart of business club, the recent (7.4-7.8) mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market is 7400-7500 yuan / ton. On the premise of supporting the bottom of the cost, the market supply is loose, downstream rigid demand is dominant, and under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the price focus of propylene still shows a downward trend, and the market is in a stalemate due to the long short game. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of propylene was 7460.60 yuan / ton on July 8, a decrease of 2.86% compared with July 1 (7680.60 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market is general, and the downstream demand is dominated by just demand. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mostly weak, and the consolidation operation is dominated. The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 8, 2022, the market price reference of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas was 20420 yuan / ton, which was 740 yuan / ton lower than the price on July 3, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price 19680 yuan / ton), an increase of 3.76%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week, the domestic organosilicon DMC market as a whole ushered in rising operation. At the beginning of the week (July 4), the quotation of organosilicon DMC of Shandong big factory was 19300 yuan / ton, which was increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. Most other factories held steady prices, and the rise in prices of big factories led to the warming of the atmosphere in the organosilicon DMC venue. 6. On July 7, Shandong big factory continued to raise the price of organosilicon DMC, with a cumulative increase of 900 yuan / ton in the two days. The quotation of organosilicon DMC of this factory was 20200 yuan / ton, and the organosilicon DMC market returned to the era of 20000. Other factories also followed the big factory to raise the price of organosilicon DMC, with a cumulative increase of 500-1000 yuan / ton in the week. As of July 8, the domestic organosilicon DMC market price was around 20200-21000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 3.7% in the week. At present, the trading atmosphere on the floor is acceptable, and the downstream demand mainly continues the rigid demand, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the rising market.

In terms of upstream silicon metal, at the beginning of July, the domestic silicon metal market was weak as a whole and operated slightly downward. According to the monitoring data of business agency,] on July 7, the reference price of silicon metal was 17690 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.23% compared with July 1 (17910 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket forecast of organosilicon DMC

After entering July, the domestic organosilicon DMC ushered in a rising market, which was mostly supported by the supply side, the confidence of the factory to raise prices and the reduction of pressure on the supply side. The support of the downstream demand side was generally general, and the downstream stock was still cautious. The organosilicon DMC datagrapher of business society believed that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market was mostly consolidated and operated, and the specific trend still needed to pay more attention to the basic changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, aniline rose broadly in the first ten days of the month, and then fluctuated and stabilized to the end of the month. On June 1, the price in Shandong was 11200-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11800 yuan / ton; On June 28, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month increased by 5.29% over the beginning of the month and 14.54% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material, pure benzene: due to the continuous rise of crude oil in the early stage, the price of pure benzene in the outer disk rose, the import of pure benzene decreased, the ports continued to destock, and the minimum inventory in East China ports fell to 48000 tons. The high pressure in the lower reaches, coupled with demand support, stimulated the continuous rise of pure benzene to exceed 10000 yuan. In the later stage, with the decline of crude oil and the external market, the superposition of downstream losses expanded, some units were economically reduced and shut down, the demand fell, and the vibration of pure benzene fell. The price of pure benzene was 9167 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9501 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 3.64% this month and 17% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose continuously this month, and the price rose broadly. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2683 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2950 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 9.94% compared with the beginning of the month and 27.34% compared with the same period last year. Since the middle and late June, nitric acid shipments have increased, and the supply of nitric acid is tight, supporting the continuous rise of nitric acid prices.

Aniline fluctuated mainly due to the influence of raw materials in this month. In the first ten days, the price of pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose, and the cost side was under pressure. Aniline followed the raw material side. In the later stage, although the price of pure benzene fell, nitric acid was still rising, and the downstream demand for aniline was acceptable, so the price remained stable until the end of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: Although crude oil and external market support still exist, some downstream products of pure benzene continue to suffer losses, and the short-term trend is cautious. In the later stage, pure benzene units are still put into operation, mainly concentrated in the integrated units of refining and chemical enterprises, with small external sales volume. New production capacity is still put into operation in the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene is expanding. On the whole, pure benzene will still operate at a high level in the future.

Nitric acid: near the end of the month, the delivery of nitric acid is slowing down, and the price adjustment of nitric acid is expected to be the main.

At present, the profit space of aniline is compressed by the cost side, and there is little room for decline. It is expected to maintain sideways consolidation in the short term, waiting for downstream buying. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, the change of downstream demand and the change of operating rate of aniline plant.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic rare earth market price index fluctuated in June, the rare earth market was weak, the domestic praseodymium neodymium price market was deadlocked, and the heavy rare earth market price fell slightly. On June 30, the rare earth index was 845 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.09% from the highest point 1007 in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 211.81% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In June, the domestic light rare earth market price trend was volatile, and the prices of praseodymium and neodymium series, the mainstream of the rare earth market, rose and fell. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide increased slightly, but the prices of metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased slightly. On the whole, the market of light rare earth is depressed. By the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 970000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.52%; The price of neodymium was 1.195 million yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.84%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 972500 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.83%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 932500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.48%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.14 million yuan / ton, down 1.30%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.245 million yuan / ton, with a decline of 0.80%. The domestic rare earth market was weak.

The domestic rare earth market price is in a stalemate, the recent downstream procurement is not active, the number of new orders is relatively small, the market of some praseodymium and neodymium products fell slightly, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention is weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices have fallen slightly. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly volatile. In late June, Baotou Iron and steel group raised the price of rare earth concentrate, which to some extent enhanced the confidence of operators, and the market price of light rare earth in the market stopped falling and stabilized.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not, the price trend on the floor has declined slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles increased. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers showed that in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. Automobile production and sales rose sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field was poor, the domestic light rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium Series in China fell in June. As of the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.49 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 3.86%; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.465 million yuan / ton, with a decline of 4.64%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.24 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 4.14%; The price trend of terbium Series in China has fallen. The price of terbium oxide in China is 14.05 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.95 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the demand for relevant orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises has resumed, and the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, which is expected to boost the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the domestic rare earth market price will be supported to a certain extent, and the price will remain at a high level.

In June 2022, the domestic 1# tin ingot market price fluctuated downward. The average price in the domestic market was 271010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 210510 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 22.32%.

On June 30, the tin commodity index was 107.23, down 0.61 points from yesterday, down 42.87% from the highest point of 187.70 in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 150.19% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Tin futures market in June 2022

varieties., Closing price on the 2nd, Closing price on the 24th, 2-day Inventory (tons), 24 day Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 262500 yuan / ton, 204860 yuan / ton, 3808.,3726

London tin, 35000 US dollars / ton, US $25175 / ton, 3005.,3435

The overall trend of Shanghai tin this month is still downward. On the macro level, the Fed’s interest rate hike and the overall high operation of the US dollar this month have dragged down the market mentality. The non-ferrous metal market is generally under pressure this month, and the metal market continues to be under pressure downward. Lun tin and Shanghai tin are under pressure downward, and have fallen for about 45 consecutive days. The main reason is that affected by the continuous rise of the US dollar and macroeconomic pessimistic factors, the whole non-ferrous sector is downward, and after the continuous rise of tin prices in the past year, The market speculation was heavy, so the funds were withdrawing from profits, and the current round led the decline in non-ferrous metals. After a month and a half of decline, the price was basically flat in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the change this month is still limited, and the overall fluctuation is in the low range.

From a fundamental point of view, the smelter has gradually entered the maintenance period since June. At present, the number of manufacturers offering prices in the market has decreased significantly, boosted by the reduction of supply sources. At present, the manufacturers have a strong attitude of supporting prices, the overall demand performance in the downstream is general, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will remain wide-ranging and volatile.

Zinc price fell sharply in June

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market fell sharply in June. As of June 30, the zinc price was 24164 yuan / ton, down 7.67% from 26172 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month; The macroeconomic weakness intensified, the supply and demand of zinc city were both weak, and the zinc price fell sharply.

Nonferrous metal sector fell

The continued high inflation in the United States exacerbated the expectation of market recession, and the non-ferrous metal sector fell in an all-round way. It can be seen from the basic metal index and non-ferrous metal current price index of the business society that the non-ferrous metal related index has continued to decline since late April, and the basic metal index and non-ferrous metal current price index have both fallen since the end of May. The market has intensified its concern about the global economy, the macroeconomic background of the metal industry has deteriorated, and the zinc market has followed suit.

The PMI growth of the National Bureau of statistics was less than expected

 
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in June, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 50.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, returning to above the critical point. The manufacturing industry resumed its expansion, and the domestic economy slowly recovered. However, the domestic economy fell for three consecutive months, and recovered in June, but there was still a certain gap with the level of the same period last year and the growth level at the beginning of the year. The domestic economic growth was less than expected, and the demand for zinc fell.

Reduction of zinc supply

The European energy crisis continued, the start-up of zinc smelters fell, Glencore and Trafigura group significantly withdrew LME futures warehouse receipts, the remaining inventory in LME Asia warehouse was only equivalent to the global consumption for half a day, the zinc inventory fell sharply, fell to the lowest level in at least 25 years, and the zinc supply decreased significantly.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that: the macroeconomic weakness is expected to intensify, and the continued high inflation in the United States has exacerbated the market recession expectation. It is expected that the metal price has peaked, and the support for the future metal price rise is insufficient; The supply of zinc market decreased, and the resistance to the decline of zinc price remained. The overall zinc market is weak in both supply and demand, the zinc price rise is not supported enough, and the falling space is blocked. It is expected that the zinc market will decline slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 1, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 10100 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan / ton lower than that on June 26 (the ex factory price of butanone was 10766 yuan / ton), a decrease of 6.19%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the domestic butanone market as a whole showed a downward trend. Entering this week, the downstream demand of butanone continued to be insufficient, and the supply and demand transmission was slow. Under the deadlock, the market focus of butanone continued to decline, the mentality of operators was frustrated, and the trading atmosphere on the floor was weak. As of this weekend (July 1), the domestic market price of butanone was around 10000-10200 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decrease of about 400-600 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of more than 6%. At present, the butanone factory has a certain shipping pressure, the downstream purchasing volume is still weak, the new order transaction performance is general, and the focus is on negotiation.

In the upstream, the domestic liquefied gas market was dominated by weak operation in June, and the civil gas market in Shandong fell violently, with the average price at the end of the month falling below 6000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market price of liquefied gas for civil use in Shandong was 6237.50 yuan / ton on June 1, and the reference price of liquefied gas was 5910 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 5.25% compared with June 1.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the effective support in the butanone market is still insufficient, and the downstream mainly continues to purchase just in need. The butanone data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly be sorted out and operated in multiple intervals, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand side of butanone.

Overview of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on June 30 was 4494 yuan / kg, which was 4.19% lower than the average price of spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1), 4642 yuan / kg; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.79%.

On June 30, the spot market price of gold was 392.50 yuan / g, a daily decrease of 0.24%, a decrease of 0.77% compared with the early average price of 395.54 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, a decrease of 5.41%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. Domestic news

On the 30th, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 80billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, the same as before. As 10billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net investment of 70billion yuan was achieved on that day.

2. International news

The Swedish central bank raised the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%..

Aftermarket forecast

In terms of international policy, expectations of substantial interest rate hikes by some central banks and tightening of monetary policies by major central banks in the world have intensified. In particular, the Federal Reserve controls inflation through interest rate hikes. The price of interest-free precious metals is under pressure, and the early price has been released downward. In this round of interest rate hikes, the rapid and sharp decline shown in the previous round of interest rate hikes has not been seen, mainly because the market has increased concerns about the risk of economic recession, The international economic situation has entered the recession cycle from stagflation, and investors are willing to allocate gold for risk hedging. Superimposed on the geopolitical side, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the international monetary credit system has led to the demand that central banks may change the structure of foreign exchange reserves, both of which support precious metal prices to a certain extent. To sum up, it is expected that the price of precious metals will remain weak and volatile in the short term.