Summary of precious metal spot price trend

 

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According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 29 was 4409.33 yuan / kg, up 0.40% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 7.56%.

 

On July 29, the spot market price of gold was 381.61 yuan / g, down 2.24% from the early average price of 390.34 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.48%.

 

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

 

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In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. Today, silver rose sharply with the price of non-ferrous metals.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

Policy Overview

 

1. Domestic policy:

 

A 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2billion yuan was carried out today, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. Due to the maturity of 3billion yuan reverse repurchase today, a net withdrawal of 1billion yuan was achieved on that day.

 

2. International Policy:

 

After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in July, central banks around the world followed suit. For example, the Saudi central bank raised key interest rates by 75 basis points; The Central Bank of Qatar raised the deposit interest rate by 75 basis points and the loan interest rate by 50 basis points; The Central Bank of Bahrain raised the weekly deposit rate by 75 basis points; The Central Bank of Kuwait raised the discount rate by 25 basis points.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. However, due to the strong expectation of interest rate hike in the early stage, the bad news was released in advance. The landing of interest rate hike boots was in line with the 75 basis points expected by the market, and the uncertainty was weakened. In addition, recently, nonferrous bulk commodities began to rebound at the bottom, driving the short-term rebound of silver prices with strong physical attributes.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty has strengthened. On the 28th, former Japanese defense minister Shigeru Ishiba and other Japanese congressmen rushed to Taiwan to cooperate with the speaker of the house of representatives of the United States, who has been planning to visit Taiwan; US House Speaker Pelosi will lead a delegation to visit Asia on the 29th, and Taiwan’s trip is listed as “pending”. If the trip takes place, this serious political provocation is bound to trigger a response from both the military and political sides of our country, and the international situation between China and the United States is unclear. This uncertainty leads to a certain degree of risk aversion.

 

In the short term, the price of precious metals may continue to rise, but the upside space is narrowed.

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