This week, cobalt prices fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the cobalt price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 22, the cobalt price was 346400 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.12% over the cobalt price of 332700 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. Power supply in Sichuan was limited, and cobalt prices rose in a volatile manner this week.

Sichuan electricity restriction stimulates new energy heating

Affected by the increase of high-temperature power consumption and the shortage of hydropower generation due to drought, Sichuan Province has limited power supply in the near future. Recently, Sichuan Province announced that it would expand the scope of power supply for industrial enterprises, which was expected to last from August 15 to 20. On August 21, it was informed that the power limit time would be extended to August 25. The Sichuan battery factory of Ningde times was shut down due to power restriction, and the lithium salt enterprises in Sichuan were shut down due to the restriction. The production of Ningde battery factory is reduced, the supply of new energy batteries is reduced, and the production reduction of lithium salt enterprises stimulates the price of lithium salt to rise. In general, Sichuan’s power rationing has stimulated the warming of the new energy industry chain.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that the news of last week’s purchase and storage stimulated the cobalt price to fluctuate and rise. This week, the cobalt market is stable, but the high temperature and drought in Sichuan have filled a fire for the new energy market. Due to the limited movie, lithium battery enterprises stopped production, and many lithium salt manufacturers stopped production. Lithium salt prices and battery prices were stimulated to rise, and cobalt market was stimulated to rise. In the future, with the removal of the high temperature and the lifting of the power limitation, the start-up of enterprises is bound to resume, and the supply of new energy industry chain will return to normal. The support of the cobalt market rise cannot be sustained, and the cobalt market has limited room to rise. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 23, the pet price of PET water bottle level in this week was operating in a narrow range, with the current average price of 8960 yuan / ton. The overall market was operating in a narrow range, the focus of negotiation was stable, the market supply and demand were balanced, and the logistics delivery was smooth.

The domestic PET price is operating in a narrow range and weak. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the downstream readiness is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8900 yuan / ton. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. In the short term, pet is operating steadily and weak.

Upstream ethylene glycol: as of August 17, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market was 4150 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day and decreased by 38.33 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on August 22, the rubber and plastic index was 695 points, which was the same as yesterday, down 34.43% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 31.63% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

PET analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to operate in a narrow range in the short term. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business association to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong dropped from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8366.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.18%, a year-on-year decrease of 53.00% over the same period of last year. On August 21, the isooctanol commodity index was 61.52, which was the same as yesterday, down 55.26% from the highest point 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle and up 75.02% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Weak upstream support and general downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers decreased slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The price fell from 7270.60 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7030.60 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.39% over the same period of last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP increased slightly this week. The DOP price increased from 9062.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9112.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with an increase of 0.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.84%. The downstream DOP price increased slightly, and the downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In late August, the market price of Shandong isooctanol dropped slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, and the downstream demand was general. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business association, the short-term domestic isooctanol market will be subject to small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash is weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 2660 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2610 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.88% and an increase of 17.3% over the same period last year. On August 18, the light soda ash commodity index was 134.36, which was the same as yesterday, down 28.95% from the highest point 189.10 in the cycle (November 7, 2021), and up 112.76% from the lowest point 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the soda ash price is generally weak this week. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2550-2700 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton.

Demand: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the glass price fell this week. The average price of glass on Monday was 20.08 yuan / square meter, and the average price on the weekend was 19.92 yuan / square meter. The price fell slightly during the week, with a range of 0.8%. The transaction volume of Shahe market this week is weaker than that of last week, and the transaction center of the market is declining.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 32nd week of 2022 (8.8-8.12), there were 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 3 rising and falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.96%) and light soda ash (- 0.37%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.47%.

According to the survey data of the business association, the domestic soda price is weak, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively weak, the glass market is declining, and the demand for soda is general. Most of the products are purchased on demand. It is expected that the soda price in the later period will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong is 1080 yuan / ton, with an increase of 66.8% over the same period last year. On August 14, the caustic soda commodity index was 155.40, which was the same as yesterday, down 41.46% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (October 27, 2021), and up 138.67% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business agency, the domestic caustic soda price is temporarily stable this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1030-1100 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1090-1250 yuan / ton. The market maintained a weak and stable trend, and the downstream enterprises mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. The enterprise’s shipment is general, the on-site wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. Due to the price reduction, the manufacturer is willing to support the price.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 32nd week of 2022 (8.8-8.12), there were 0 rising commodities, 2 falling commodities and 3 rising and falling commodities in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.96%) and light soda ash (- 0.37%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.47%.

The analysts of the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been adjusted and operated. Due to the price reduction, the manufacturers have the intention to support the price. The downstream alumina has an obvious wait-and-see attitude. It is mainly purchased on demand, and the overall demand is limited. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent weak adjustment of caustic soda will be mainly operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

This week, DBP prices fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the DBP price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 15, DBP price was 8600 yuan / ton, down 3.19% from 8883.33 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. The DBP market fell this week, and the demand for DBP cost reduction was insufficient.

This week, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business association, the price of n-butanol fell this week. On August 15, the price of n-butanol was 6600 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from 6800 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. The decline of n-butanol gradually stopped, and the market as a whole was in a weak consolidation operation. The trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market was relatively light, and the rhythm of downstream goods preparation was calm. Most of them were just needed to purchase, and some operators sold out profits. The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell, and the pressure of n-butanol in the future was greater.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased this week. As of August 15, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8062.50 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from the price of phthalic anhydride on August 8 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, the raw material cost of DBP was strong and stable temporarily, and the downward pressure of DBP in the future weakened.

This week, PVC prices fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 15, the PVC price was 6557.14 yuan / ton, down 2.15% from 6701.43 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. Affected by the high temperature, power supply and production were limited in some areas, the price of PVC fluctuated and fell, the demand of DBP declined, and the downward pressure of DBP in the future increased.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, due to the impact of high temperature limit, DBP equipment has been shut down and overhauled more recently, and DBP supply has been reduced; The prices of n-butanol and isooctanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost of DOTP decreased; The operating rate of PVC enterprises decreased, and the demand for PVC decreased. In the future, the price of raw materials will drop, the cost of DBP will drop, the commencement of PVC will drop, the demand of DBP will fall, and the cost of DBP demand will fall. It is expected that the price of DBP will fluctuate and fall.

According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 16, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7766.67 yuan / ton, up 7.37% compared with the price on last Tuesday (August 9), down 2.51% compared with the price on July 16, and down 24.60% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the recent period (8.9-8.16), the melamine market was stable first and then rose. Recently, the market price of raw material urea fluctuated slightly, with limited impact on the cost side. On the supply side, some enterprises in some regions stopped or reduced production, the market supply was reduced, the supply side supported the price of melamine to rise, and the downstream just needed purchase was the main one. The demand side was flat.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on August 15. The prices of upstream anthracite and natural gas were adjusted at a low level, and the cost was generally supported. In terms of demand, agricultural demand has basically ended and industrial demand has increased. The start-up of the rubber plate factory is low, and the just need to purchase is the main one. The compound fertilizer factory follows up on the bargain hunting. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. In terms of supply, some manufacturers have started maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

According to the melamine analysts of business agency, the current cost support is general, and the operating rate of the melamine market is declining, which supports the strong operation of the market. However, the downstream demand performance is flat, and the market mentality is still cautious. It is expected that the melamine market will be strong in the short term, so we need to pay more attention to the market information and guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, toluene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 5, the price was 7560 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 7460 yuan / ton, down 1.32% from last week; Up 29.24% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, due to the weakness of crude oil and the poor market demand, the domestic toluene market mentality was empty, and the price was weak and fell. In the second half of the week, with the improvement of the terminal gasoline market and the widening of the price difference between toluene and xylene, the enthusiasm for purchasing toluene in the downstream increased. Supported by the demand, toluene rebounded slightly.

On the external market, toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (August 11), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $890 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $52 / T, a decrease of 5.52%.

In terms of crude oil, US gasoline inventory dropped sharply this week, and gasoline demand rebounded significantly; In addition, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of oil demand growth this year, and the pressure of demand decline was relieved. The oil price fluctuated and rose during the week. As of August 12, Brent price in this week increased by 3.23 USD / barrel or 3.4% compared with last week; WTI rose by US $3.08/barrel or 3.46%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On August 5, the price was 15800 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 16525 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.59% over last week and 14.56% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On August 5, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with last week, the price was the same, an increase of 23.29% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fluctuated upward this week. On August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 8656 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.18% over last week and 14.28% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. The international oil price is still swaying in the expectation that the economic recession risk will affect demand and supply tension, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

Cost side: the crude oil trend is still uncertain, and the cost side is unstable; Demand side: the demand for gasoline blending increases, but the downstream demand of chemical industry continues to be weak. In general, toluene may fluctuate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

The price of acetic anhydride fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of August 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 6200 yuan / ton, down 0.40% from 6225 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend. This week, the quotation of acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton, the cost fell and the demand was weak. This week, the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly.

This week, the price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that the price of acetic acid fell this week. As of August 12, the price of acetic acid was 3362.50 yuan / ton, down 3.24% from the price of 3475 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend; The demand is insufficient, the price of acetic acid drops, the cost of acetic anhydride drops, and the pressure of acetic anhydride drop increases.

This week, methanol prices rose first and then fell

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club that the methanol price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 12, the methanol price was 2460 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from 2473.33 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend; Compared with the methanol price of 2546.67 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week, it dropped by 3.40%. The energy crisis still exists, the price of methanol fluctuates and falls, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride decreases, the driving force of acetic anhydride rises is weakened, and the downward pressure still exists.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of business club, raw material methanol fell in shock this week, the price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the quotation of acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton. In general, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will drop slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 11, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8183 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 7 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8266 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 83 yuan / ton, down 1%. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8216 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 33 yuan / ton, down 0.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (8.7-8.11), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a weak trend. At the beginning of this week, the domestic n-propanol market was mainly operated stably, and the market was not changed much. On the 10th and 11th of the weekend, the n-propanol market in Shandong continued to move downward. The major manufacturers in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. Some n-propanol suppliers followed the footsteps of the major manufacturers and also adjusted the delivery price of n-propanol downward by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of August 11, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7500-7650 yuan / ton. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the price change of raw materials and shipment situation in the future.

Forecast of n-propanol future market trend

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is relatively stable, the transmission of supply and demand is normal, and the news on the market is relatively calm. The analysts of n-propanol of business club believe that in the short term, the adjustment and operation of the domestic n-propanol market will be the main one, and more attention should be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.