According to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, as of August 7, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7233.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Monday (August 1), down 17.80% compared with that of July 7, and 29.32% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The recent (8.1-8.7) melamine market is mainly stable. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen slightly, the cost side is generally supported, the supply side melamine market operating rate has dropped to a low level, which has a certain support for the market, the demand side has not improved significantly, the terminal operation is sluggish, the follow-up and digestion ability of melamine is slow, and the purchase is mainly based on demand.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell on August 5. The prices of upstream anthracite and natural gas were adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was general. From the demand side, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is increased. In some areas, agricultural topdressing has gradually ended, and agricultural demand has weakened. The compound fertilizer is ready to produce autumn fertilizer, and the demand for urea is increased. The start-up of the rubber plate factory is low, and it mainly needs to purchase. The melamine price is low, and the enthusiasm for urea purchase is general. In terms of supply, some manufacturers have started maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons.

The melamine analyst of Business Association believes that the current price of raw material urea is falling, the cost support is weakened, the market operating rate is low, but the demand side is still general. It is expected that the melamine market will be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 3850.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3933.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.38%. On August 7, the calcium carbide commodity index was 103.06, which was the same as yesterday, down 51.44% from the highest point 212.23 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 85.73% from the lowest point 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream orchid charcoal is temporarily stable. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This week, the PVC market price dropped from 6775.11 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6668.57 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.58%, a year-on-year decrease of 26.82%. The PVC market price dropped slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the calcium carbide market may fall in a narrow range

In the middle and early ten days of August, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market is slightly decreased, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in the middle and early August.

The domestic methanol market mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. No matter in terms of production enterprises or import source prices at ports, the rise and fall are not large. Although the coal price is high, which seems to drive the methanol market to rise, the demand is low, which restricts the development of the whole industrial chain.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 1 to August 8, the average price of domestic methanol market dropped from 2555 yuan / ton to 2546 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.33% in the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.24% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.00%.

As of the closing of August 8, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated narrowly. The opening price of ma2209 contract was 2472 yuan / ton, the highest price was 2568 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 2463 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 2547 yuan / ton, an increase of 75 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of ma2209 contract was 812100 lots, a decrease of 44900 lots compared with the previous trading day.

As of August 8, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions is as follows:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi Province, 2330 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian area, 2530-2560 yuan / ton, cash exchange

Two lakes region, 2500-2510 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

In Anhui Province, some mainstream enterprises negotiated about 2510-2580 yuan / ton

Henan Province. Ex factory reference: 2600 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, is stable, while the price of coal is falling in a narrow range, and the support of methanol cost is weak; The price of the downstream product East China glacial acetic acid dropped the most; Among the related products, the price of urea in Shandong dropped the most.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on August 4, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 357-359 / T. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 117.75-118.25 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 382.75-383.25 euros / ton, – 2 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, USD 357-359 / T, USD 0 / T

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 117.75-118.25 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 382.75-383.25 euros / ton, – 2 euros / ton

Crude oil is weak, supply is expected to increase, and demand changes are limited. The cost is supported or weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The methanol analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market in the short term would be dominated by sluggish consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is in a weak position. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1090 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1080 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 0.92% and a price increase of 66.8% over the same period last year. On August 5, the caustic soda commodity index was 155.40, which was the same as yesterday, down 41.46% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (October 27, 2021), and up 138.67% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of business association, the domestic caustic soda price is weak this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1030-1100 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1090-1250 yuan / ton. At present, the overall market atmosphere is weak, and the downstream enterprises mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. The enterprise’s shipment is general, the on-site wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. The overall trading is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 30th week (July 25-july 29) of 2022, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 kind of commodities falling to 0 in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were PVC (5.21%) and calcium carbide (0.87%); The main commodities falling were light soda (- 1.40%) and caustic soda (- 0.18%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.9%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is in a weak position, some enterprises are in a negative position, and the wait-and-see attitude of the downstream alumina is obvious. Most of the alumina is mainly purchased on demand, with limited overall demand and dominated by negative factors. It is expected that the subsequent weak market of caustic soda will be mainly operated, and the specific market demand of the downstream market will be seen.

On July 27, the crude benzene commodity index was 119.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.65% from 131.84, the highest point in the cycle (January 28, 2013), and up 290.05% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In July 2022, the crude benzene market fluctuated downward. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 7805 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7487 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 4.07%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

July 6, 9300, -300

July 14, 9150, -150

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced twice in July 2022, with a total reduction of 450 yuan / ton. As of the press release, the implementation of Sinopec pure benzene was 9150 yuan / ton.

The crude oil market fell after the overall shock this month. As of the 27th, the international oil price rebounded overnight, WTI rose by more than 2%, and SC crude oil rose in the inner market. The main contract of SC crude oil rose by 4.05% to close at 678.5 yuan. Oil prices are still in a long and short tug of war, and the market is still worried about the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike, leading to a standoff at the $100 level; However, oil prices were supported by supply tightening concerns and the weakening US dollar. In the future, the crude oil analyst of business news agency believes that in the short term, it is difficult to alleviate the supply shortage pattern. Although the Libyan supply may rise, the supply elasticity of opec+ as a whole is still relatively limited. In the later stage, it is difficult to continue to improve production capacity. Driven by the supply shortage, the oil price may still have the upper action force in the near future. However, in the medium term, due to the weak demand caused by the global central bank’s interest rate hike, there are still many obstacles to the rise of oil prices.

This month, the crude oil market fluctuated widely, and the overall trend was mainly downward. It drove the market price of pure benzene to decline in the first half of the month, and the price fell again after a slight rebound in the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, affected by the broad decline of crude oil, pure benzene in the external market followed the weakness, driving the focus of negotiation in the domestic market down. Due to the general transaction in Shandong, the price difference between Shandong and other regions widened, and the overall decline in the week was limited. Near the end of the month, the shipment of pure benzene in East China was tight, and the inventory of pure benzene in the port was low as a whole, with the inventory falling by 20000 tons in the week. The port has good enthusiasm for picking up goods, and the superposition of downstream purchase demand at the end of the month is acceptable. Pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling at the end of the month. However, the market expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in August, and poor negotiations on pure benzene in the far month limit the increase.

In terms of supply: after the four rounds of raising and lowering of coke prices, the current coking enterprises have suffered serious losses, and the coking enterprises have further increased their efforts to limit production, with most enterprises limiting production by 30-50%. With the strengthening of production restriction, the current overall supply of coke is tightening, and the output of related by-products fell significantly this month.

Crude benzene was less affected by the industrial chain than other products in the chain this month, and the fluctuation was not very large. The overall performance was high consolidation. The main reason is that the tight supply has boosted the bidding price, the coking enterprises have a strong price support mentality, the crude benzene inventory in the plant has remained low, and it is difficult to improve the supply in the short term in the future. With this factor, it is expected that the crude benzene price will remain high in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol continued to fall this month, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 12833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 11066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 13.77%. On July 28, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 53.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 48.53% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell slightly this month

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has experienced twists and turns this month, with a volatile decline. The price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.17%. The ex factory price of formaldehyde in China fell slightly this month. The price of formaldehyde fell from 1270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1206.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.99%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the impact of supply and demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and early August, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly. At the end of the month, the upstream isobutyraldehyde market has an upward trend, the cost support has improved, the downstream coating market is general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell slightly in July. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11280 yuan / ton, down 0.09% from the price of 11290 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 12.57% year-on-year.

In July, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid declined slightly. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price negotiated in various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid was 10900-11300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of some manufacturers was higher than the market price. The actual transaction price in the market this week mainly declined. Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was normal, but the downstream acceptance was not high, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly.

Recently, the on-site spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in China is normal, the on-site hydrofluoric acid device operates stably, and the manufacturer’s order situation is poor. Up to now, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 10800-11300 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 10800-11200 yuan / ton. In June, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fell, the downstream construction remained at a low level, the on-site transaction was acceptable, and the hydrofluoric acid market price fell slightly.

The market price of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, rose slightly. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2700 yuan / ton. The fluorite price rose 0.41% in July. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, but the logistics in some regions was limited, the spot on the floor was tight, and the domestic fluorite price trend rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The price of fluorite in the venue has risen, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the venue has a limited decline due to the support of raw materials.

The price of downstream refrigerant products rose slightly. The operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remained low. Recently, the sales of the automotive industry increased month on month. The refrigerant market changed little. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchased on demand, and the refrigerant industry market rose slightly. On the whole, the refrigerant market is mainly stable, and the price trend of chloroform is declining, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry decline. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 has risen slightly. The main manufacturers of refrigerants are still not operating well, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is general. The demand in R22 market application field is poor, and the enterprise quotation is mainly stable. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a prices rose slightly, trichloroethylene prices remained low, cost support was limited, R134a market prices rose slightly, and the focus of trading was low. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 19000-23000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise is eager to ship, the actual transaction is more profitable, the downstream refrigerant market is slightly higher, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower due to this.

From the perspective of the industrial chain chart, the fluorine chemical industry has a poor market, and the price of raw material fluorite has risen, but the price trend of sulfuric acid raw material has fallen, and the price of downstream refrigerant products has remained low. In addition, the recent domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business agency, believes that the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid may decline slightly in the later period.

Price trend in July

According to the monitoring data of the bulk list of business society, the price trend of cryolite in July fell first and then rose. On July 31, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% over the price of 7600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 19.53% year-on-year.

In July, the domestic cryolite market was consolidated and operated, and the market supply and demand performance was deadlocked. Due to the shortage of raw materials and the high cost pressure of enterprises, the manufacturer’s inventory was tight, the downstream demand was stable, and the enterprise’s shipment was relatively smooth. The manufacturer quoted a small adjustment according to its own shipment situation, the overall price trend was high, and the cryolite market operated firmly. As of the 31st, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 7200-8600 yuan / ton, and the range price was reduced by 100 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is about 8000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

Upstream, the domestic soda ash market declined as a whole. On July 31, the average price of soda ash was 2820 yuan / ton, down 3.42% from 2920 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, soda ash was mainly downward, and the downstream had resistance to high price sources. The enthusiasm for entering the market was general, the atmosphere of on-site trading was light, the manufacturers negotiated to ship, the market focus shifted downward, and the soda ash market was weak.

In the downstream aluminum market, the market trend first fell and then rose in June. On July 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 18633.33 yuan / ton, down 2.27% from the average market price of 19066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In early July, the social inventory was removed periodically. After the price reduction, the purchasing atmosphere increased and the price stopped rising. However, at present, the downstream demand is off-season, the order is limited, and the support is insufficient. In terms of supply and demand performance, the aluminum ingot price is mainly volatile in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

At present, the cryolite market is dominated by wait-and-see operation, the high price is strong, the supply of raw materials is tight, the support is strong, the cryolite price remains high, the downstream demand is stable, the shipment is OK, and the operator’s mentality is stable. In terms of supply and demand performance, the short-term cryolite market continues to be high and stable, and it is expected that the cryolite price may fluctuate slightly in the later period.

Summary of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 29 was 4409.33 yuan / kg, up 0.40% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 7.56%.

On July 29, the spot market price of gold was 381.61 yuan / g, down 2.24% from the early average price of 390.34 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.48%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different. Today, silver rose sharply with the price of non-ferrous metals.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. Domestic policy:

A 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2billion yuan was carried out today, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. Due to the maturity of 3billion yuan reverse repurchase today, a net withdrawal of 1billion yuan was achieved on that day.

2. International Policy:

After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in July, central banks around the world followed suit. For example, the Saudi central bank raised key interest rates by 75 basis points; The Central Bank of Qatar raised the deposit interest rate by 75 basis points and the loan interest rate by 50 basis points; The Central Bank of Bahrain raised the weekly deposit rate by 75 basis points; The Central Bank of Kuwait raised the discount rate by 25 basis points.

Aftermarket forecast

In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. However, due to the strong expectation of interest rate hike in the early stage, the bad news was released in advance. The landing of interest rate hike boots was in line with the 75 basis points expected by the market, and the uncertainty was weakened. In addition, recently, nonferrous bulk commodities began to rebound at the bottom, driving the short-term rebound of silver prices with strong physical attributes.

On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty has strengthened. On the 28th, former Japanese defense minister Shigeru Ishiba and other Japanese congressmen rushed to Taiwan to cooperate with the speaker of the house of representatives of the United States, who has been planning to visit Taiwan; US House Speaker Pelosi will lead a delegation to visit Asia on the 29th, and Taiwan’s trip is listed as “pending”. If the trip takes place, this serious political provocation is bound to trigger a response from both the military and political sides of our country, and the international situation between China and the United States is unclear. This uncertainty leads to a certain degree of risk aversion.

In the short term, the price of precious metals may continue to rise, but the upside space is narrowed.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 28, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 155000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged and operated smoothly. The price fluctuation range was small. You Gang mainly needed to purchase, and the purchasing atmosphere was general. The overall market operated smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. It was mainly contract customers who arranged orders and delivered goods, and the number of new orders was limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the current mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan / ton.

Upstream lithium carbonate: the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 461000 yuan / ton on July 27, up 0.44% from the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 459000 yuan / ton on July 1). On July 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 479600 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from the average price at the beginning of the month (July 1, the average price of carbon in East China was 478000 yuan / ton).

Chemical commodity index: on July 27, the chemical index was 999 points, down 11 points from yesterday, down 28.64% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 67.06% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analysts of business club lithium iron phosphate believe that lithium iron phosphate will run smoothly in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).