According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of September 27, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8366.67 yuan/ton, 0.80% higher than that on September 1, and 12.24% lower than that on a three-month cycle.

In September, the melamine market fluctuated and rose slightly, and the market atmosphere was weak near the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, there was some support on the cost side, but the downstream was mainly bearish, the purchase intention was not strong, and the market was weak. With the rising price of raw urea, the support on the cost side continued to strengthen. Some enterprises received orders for export, but the domestic trade needed to follow up. The low operating rate of the industry and the cost led to the rise of the melamine market. After the rise, the downstream was in conflict with the high price of goods, and more rigid goods needed to be purchased. The manufacturers mainly implemented early orders, The focus of the market negotiation was at a high level, the cost support remained in the late decade, and the operating rate was low, but the demand side was not good, enterprises cut prices to attract orders, the high-end price of the melamine market was loose, and the market atmosphere was weak.

On September 26, the benchmark price of upstream urea was 2553.00 yuan/ton, up 6.38% compared with 2400.00 yuan/ton on September 1.

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the cost is still supported at present, and the downstream stores are properly stocked up before the festival, but the demand is still poor, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

DOP prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 26, the DOP price was 10040 yuan/ton, down 1.69% from 10212.50 yuan/ton on September 18 last weekend; It was down 3.00% from 10350 yuan/ton on September 20. This week, the positive support of DOP weakened, and the price of DOP rose first and then fell.

Domestic DOP import and export volume

According to the data released by the customs, in 2022, the number of DOP source imports will shrink rapidly, while the number of exports will increase. In August, China’s DOP import volume was 161.4 tons, down 98.6% year on year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume fell 81.8% year on year; The export volume of DOP has risen significantly since June. In August, the export volume was 5442.7 tons, up 644% year on year. From January to August, the cumulative increase was 33%. Although the proportion of imported DOP in the domestic DOP market is relatively small, the decrease in imports and the increase in exports also reduce the supply and increase the demand in the domestic DOP market, which is good for the domestic DOP market.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. As of September 26, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 7.29% from 9600 yuan/ton on September 18 at the beginning of the week. Recently, the supply of goods in the phthalic anhydride plant is tight. Some domestic devices have been overhauled. The 120000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Tongling, Anhui Province has been shut down for maintenance for about a month, and the 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Xinyang Group has been shut down. It is expected that the start-up and restart after the National Day holiday. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight. The price trend of phthalic anhydride in the plant has risen significantly, the cost of DOP raw materials has risen, and the impetus for the rise of DOP has increased.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol dropped sharply this week. As of September 26, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, down 6.01% from 9433.33 yuan/ton on September 18 last weekend. The price of isooctanol fell, the cost of DOP fell, and the positive support of DOP weakened.

Future market expectation

Business agency DOP data analysts believe that the recent plasticizer import and export data has improved, the export volume has greatly increased and the export volume has decreased, and the supply and demand are still good. In terms of raw materials, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after a sharp rise, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, and the positive support of DOP weakened. In the future, the demand for DOP cost decreases and the DOP price is expected to fall slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business community, at the beginning of the week, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6675.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the price of the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was 6550.00 yuan/ton, down 1.87%, and up 20.18% year on year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell slightly this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market declined in the past two months, and the market continued to fall this week. The market price of raw potassium chloride is still falling, and new orders for border trade have been signed, among which traders have suffered serious losses. The equipment of the domestic manufacturer is normally started and delivered according to the order. Downstream procurement remained just in demand, market transactions were cold and quiet, and the market for potassium nitrate declined. According to the statistics of the business community, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 6200-6800 yuan/ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell. At present, the market price of 60% salt lake crystal is 3750-3850 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The price of 57% of the powder in Qinghai small factories is 3500-3600 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the price of 62% of white potassium in border trade areas is 3850-4950 yuan/ton (down 50-100 yuan/ton). The price of 62% white potassium at the port is 3900-4150 yuan/ton. The price of large particles at the port is mostly 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the price of 60% red powder is 4000 yuan/ton.

In the near future, the domestic potassium chloride market continues to maintain a sluggish trend, and it is difficult for downstream factories to increase their purchasing strength significantly. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will decline mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (The above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of the business community. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers.).

In the middle of September, the trend of domestic propane market was mostly downward, and Shandong propane market fell significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5915.75 yuan/ton on September 15, and 5668.25 yuan/ton on September 22, with a weekly drop of 4.18%, 0.74% lower than the same period last year.

As of September 22, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/. September 22

Central China, 5950-6150 yuan/ton

North China, 5700-5800 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5600-5700 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5750-5850 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic propane market mainly declined, while the Shandong propane market fell significantly by 100-250 yuan/ton. The international crude oil fell significantly during the week, and the cost was bad for the market. In terms of market supply, domestic refineries have sufficient supply, which brings certain negative effects. In terms of market demand, the current increase in terminal demand is limited, and the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, with a cautious mind, and the market trading atmosphere is general. As the National Day holiday approaches, the manufacturer has a certain demand for inventory arrangement before the festival, and most prices are down.

Saudi Aramco announced in September 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 650 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane was 630 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton from last month.

On the whole, the international crude oil price has declined and the support from the cost side is insufficient. At present, the increase of terminal demand is not obvious, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The market supply is relatively adequate. With the arrival of the National Day Holiday, the upstream is dominated by inventory discharge, and more price cuts are made to stimulate the downstream to enter the market. It is estimated that the propane market may still weaken in the short term.

After the festival, the domestic MIBK market rose slightly, mainly due to the wide upward support of acetone at the raw material end. Under the pressure of cost, the focus of negotiation rose by about 100-150 yuan/ton, and the overall negotiation range was 9550-9700 yuan/ton.

The acetone at the raw material end was pushed up, and the pressure from the cost side was increased. The acetone negotiation in East China was pushed up to 5400 yuan/ton, and the acetone negotiation in South China was pushed up to 5500 yuan/ton. Last week, restricted by the weather interval transportation short futures, the price holding sentiment of the commodity holders increased, and the offer rose. This is due to the strong support from the cost side. The commodity holders have a strong intention to push up, but the low price does not rise. 

In the week, the operating rate of MIBK industry was around 80%. Zhejiang Zhenyang’s 15000 t/a MIBK unit was shut down for maintenance on September 17, and the operating rate of the industry continued to decline. It is expected that the supply side will be tightened overall this week. However, from the perspective of the industry as a whole, although the supply pressure is not serious, the downstream just needs to follow up.

The business community expects the domestic MIBK market to be stable or rising, with strong acetone support on the cost side, and MIBK mainly operates at a high price during the maintenance of Zhejiang Zhenyang device, but the increase is limited by the demand side release.

DBP prices rose sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DBP price rose sharply this week. As of September 19, the DBP price was 9533.33 yuan/ton, up 4.00% from 9166.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. The cost increases, the plasticizer increases, and the DBP price increases. On September 19, the DBP commodity index was 75.07, up 0.27 points from yesterday, down 32.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 110.50 (2021-10-12), and up 10.85% from the lowest point of 67.72 on August 16, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

The price of DBP raw materials rose in shock

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of n-butanol rose sharply this week. The price of n-butanol on September 19 was 7200 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from 6666.67 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. Affected by Jinjiu, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market has warmed up, the confidence of the operators has improved, and the price of n-butanol has risen significantly due to the replenishment of some enterprises after the festival. The price of raw materials and the cost of DBP have increased, and the impetus for the rise of DBP has increased.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose strongly. As of September 19, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9600 yuan/ton, up 3.78% from 9250 yuan/ton on September 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, downstream plasticizer started to rise, the demand for phthalic anhydride rose, phthalic anhydride rose greatly, the cost of DBP raw materials rose, and the rising power of DBP in the future increased.

Future market expectation

According to the DBP data analysts of the Business Club, with the advent of the Golden Age and the Silver Age, the number of plasticizer enterprises has increased. In addition, some enterprises have replenished their warehouses after the festival. The prices of DBP raw materials, n-butanol and phthalic anhydride, have risen sharply. The cost of plasticizer has risen, and the price of plasticizer DBP has gained momentum. In the future, the supply and demand of plasticizer DBP have both warmed up, and the price support of DBP is mainly on the cost of raw materials. In terms of raw materials, after the completion of the post holiday replenishment, the support for the rise of raw materials will be weakened, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride will be strong and stable, and the cost of DBP will be strong and stable. It is expected that the DBP price will be strong and consolidated in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 19, the price of PET water bottle grade PET in this week was narrow and weak. At present, the average price is 8420 yuan/ton, down 4.32% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is narrow and weak. At present, the focus of negotiations is weak, the market shipments are average, and the logistics is smooth.

The domestic PET price is narrow and weak. Compared with the same period last week, the price has decreased slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers mainly give up profits and take orders, the shipment is positive, the logistics is smooth, the overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, the downstream preparation intention is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8500 yuan/ton, which has decreased slightly this week. In the short term, PET is stable and weak.

Upstream ethylene glycol: As of September 13, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Asian market in CFR China on September 13 was 530 dollars/ton, which was 5 dollars/ton higher than the previous trading day and 6.9 dollars/ton higher than last week.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On September 18, the rubber and plastic index was 707, unchanged from yesterday, 33.30% lower than the highest point 1060 (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and 33.90% higher than the lowest point 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business community believe that the PET market is expected to operate stably in the short term, with a narrow range being weak. (if you want to know more about the latest market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of business club, get commodity information and master commodity prices.).

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 16, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5800.00 yuan/ton, which had no significant change compared with the price at the beginning of this week. The white carbon black was weak in narrow range. This week, the overall market of white carbon black was mainly stable, with balanced supply and demand. The atmosphere of discussion was general, the overall market was stable, with balanced supply and demand. At present, the market supply is normal, and just needed to purchase.

The price of white carbon black market fell by a narrow margin, compared with the price decline trend of the same period last week, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, downstream just needed procurement was dominant, the main contract customers were supplied, the logistics was smooth, and the market discussion atmosphere was flat

Upstream hydrochloric acid: As of September 13, the domestic price of hydrochloric acid had fallen slightly, and the average market price had dropped from 163.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 153.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week. A year-on-year drop of 44.58%. On September 12, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 40.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 70.74% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26), and up 124.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Chemical index: On September 15, the chemical index was 970 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 30.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.21% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The white carbon black analyst of the business community thinks that the rubber grade white carbon black will operate stably in the short term, and the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, get commodity information and master commodity prices.).

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 15, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 6700 yuan/ton, which was 317 yuan/ton higher than that of September 11, 2022 (6383 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic dimethyl carbonate market ushered in a rising operation after the Mid Autumn Festival (9.12-9.15). On the first day after the festival, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market was good. Factory offers were mostly firm, with minor upward adjustments. The adjustment range was around 200 yuan/ton. The cost of dimethyl carbonate was supported by the stable high level of raw materials. Later, some factories in Shandong and Anhui also adjusted their prices upward, The overall market of dimethyl carbonate is converging towards the high-end. As of September 15, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 6500-6900 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate in the market is mild, and the actual order is mainly negotiated.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the recent (9.7-9.13) propylene oxide market has risen steadily. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has some support. Before the festival, the on-site devices are mainly stable, the supply is tight, the factory shipments are smooth, the demand side follows up generally, the market is relatively strong before the festival, the market returns after the festival, the market shipments are stable, and the wait-and-see attitude is mainstream. On the 13th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the dimethyl carbonate industry is in a good mood, and the factory quotation continues to be strong. The dimethyl carbonate data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will continue to operate mainly in a stable, medium and strong way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market of dichloromethane rose sharply this week (9.2-9.10). As of September 10, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3160 yuan/ton, up 6.67% from 2962 yuan/ton last Friday. On the one hand, the price of raw material methanol has risen significantly since September, supporting the cost; On the other hand, Jinling, Jinyi and other methane chloride plants operate at reduced load and issue orders in limited quantities. The supply of goods in the region is tight; This week, manufacturers and traders’ offers continued to rise slightly.

This week (9.2-9.10), the domestic methane chloride started to operate slightly, and the Jinling and Jinyi methane chloride plants operated at a reduced load with a total of 740000 tons/year. It supports the dichloromethane market.

This week (9.2-9.10), the spot price of methanol rose significantly, and the cost support strengthened. According to the business community, as of September 10, the spot price of methanol was 2714 yuan/ton, up 6.22% from 2553 on Friday. The domestic methanol market rose in shock. The main reasons are the short term shortage of supply and the short term rise in demand. The downstream receiving price has risen significantly. There is a demand for goods in stock. The traders’ mentality is stable and improving. The quotations of major manufacturers at ports and in the mainland have been continuously raised. Some manufacturers have been bidding well, mainly at a premium starting price. However, the rise in freight has restrained the growth of the internal real estate area.

With the arrival of the tenth quarter of the traditional “golden nine silver” season, the downstream thinner, cleaning and pharmaceutical industries have a small stock, and the support for dichloromethane has increased slightly.

Future market forecast: The analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply side of methane chloride has declined slightly in the short term, and the cost side has risen significantly. In addition, the downstream demand of Jinjiu has increased slightly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rebound slightly in the later period, but the extent of the rebound is limited by the extent of the increase in demand side.