Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2732.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2745.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.48%, up 3.04% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on January 15 was 127.67, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.19% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 129.62% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support increased, downstream demand weakened, and urea supply was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6438.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6232.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.20%, up 34.21% year on year; The price of anthracite rose slightly, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing lump) rising by 50 yuan/ton to 1920 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4606.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4190.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 9.04%, down 6.05% year on year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell sharply, and the price of urea was generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late January. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea have risen and fallen, and the cost of urea is well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.