According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market has turned from weak to strong last month, the drawing brand has been shaken and warmed up, and the fiber products have also warmed up to varying degrees. As of February 1, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7966.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+1.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of January.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In the upstream, the propylene market rose steadily in January. From the beginning of the month, the propylene market gradually entered the stage of preparation before the festival. There was a wave of procurement peaks in the downstream, the transaction atmosphere improved, the upstream goods went smoothly, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices. During the Spring Festival, the market maintained a stable trend, the market demand followed up slowly after the festival, and the quotations of individual enterprises fell.

The price of propylene rose steadily and was slightly stronger. Last month, the support of PP cost side was acceptable. In terms of industry load, PP polymerization enterprises’ maintenance downtime increased before the holiday, and the industry load fell back to about 80%. The supply of goods on the site is relatively sufficient, the inventory position has decreased, and the supply pressure has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises is average. The stock situation of terminal enterprises is not as good as expected. After the holiday, they purchase according to demand, and the spot price fluctuates and recovers.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 1, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8016.67 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of January, it has increased by – 1.43% and decreased by – 4.56% year-on-year. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, increased, and the demand of terminal enterprises tended to fall before the festival in the middle of the month. The digestion speed of non-woven end products decreased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP weakened due to the holiday. After the resumption of work after the holiday, the spot price recovery is less than that of the drawing material, and it is expected that it will still maintain the operation of shock consolidation in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market fell from a high point last month. As of February 1, the average price quoted by the domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 10000 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of January, the increase and decrease rate was -10.18%, with a year-on-year increase of+5.45%. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials has been more beneficial, and the recent demand has declined and stabilized. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the present time when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the polypropylene market was first depressed and then rose last month. The market of raw material propylene has risen, and the cost support is acceptable. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to maintain production just in need, the intra-field trading is general, and the buyers operate cautiously. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.