1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 70266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.9% from 69641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 21.24% from the beginning of the week and 39.02% year-on-year.

Macro aspect: at the beginning of the week, as the US non farm data in July was better than market expectations, the Fed narrowed its expectations, resulting in a decline in metal prices and a slight decline in copper prices; Later, as the US Senate passed the US $1 trillion infrastructure bill, it will boost metal demand and drive the metal rebound.

Supply side: the strike of copper mine has been disturbed continuously. At the end of July, Escondida mine of BHP, andina mine of Codelco and jxnippon Mining &; The trade union of the casrones mine owned by metals (about 3500 mining workers) voted to strike after they rejected the management’s new labor agreement and entered the government mediation stage with the intervention of the Labor Office (DT) in the first week of August. The strike of several copper mines triggered concerns about the shortage of copper supply, which made the copper price strong. However, on the last day of this week, the largest copper mine, Escondida copper mine, negotiated a contract, avoided a strike and eased the tension in the copper mine.

Demand: in the new year of real estate completion, the sales of home decoration market are hot, and the market presents a situation of off-season. In the first half of the year, the completed investment in power grid reached 36.7% of the planned investment. In the second half of the year, the orders of State Grid and the post flood reconstruction project in Henan will strongly support the consumption of electrolytic copper.

LME copper inventory

To sum up: the supply and demand are weak, but the supply interference is greater than expected, and the total inventory continues to decline. It is difficult to effectively increase the inventory in August. As time gradually approaches the peak season, the demand for goods increases, and the price fluctuation range rises. It is expected to maintain a high fluctuation pattern in the short term.