Recent price trend of potassium chloride
As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride in Qinghai has risen sharply recently. The quotation increased from 2525.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 3210.00 yuan / ton on July 27, an increase of 27.13%. In July, the quotation of potassium chloride of Salt Lake shares was raised twice, with a total increase of 820 yuan / ton, or 33.47%. On July 1, the quotation was 2770 yuan / ton, an increase of 320 yuan / ton; On July 19, the price was adjusted again to 3270 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan. Qinghai Salt Lake raised the quotation of potassium chloride, and local distribution enterprises raised the quotation one after another. The transaction price in domestic mainstream areas was 3800-4000 yuan, and the actual transaction was less. Most businesses have stopped quoting, waiting for the development of the market, and are reluctant to sell. A small amount of potassium chloride arrived at the import port, and the price continued to rise. The quotation of 62% Russian White potassium port was about 4250-4350 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. The quotation of 62% white potassium in border trade is 4000 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. There are few new orders signed in border trade areas, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
Strong international demand for potash fertilizer
Recently, the FOB price of potassium chloride in Vancouver is about 251-578 US dollars / ton, up 2-3 US dollars / ton compared with the previous period. The CIF price of potassium chloride in Southeast Asia is temporarily stable, about 340-370 US dollars / ton. In the past six months, the price of potassium chloride in Brazil and the United States has increased by more than 300 US dollars / ton, of which the price of large granular potassium chloride in Brazil has increased by more than 400 US dollars / ton to 640-670 US dollars / ton. In addition, EU sanctions against Belarus will not have a significant impact on its exports in the short term, but it may exacerbate the shortage of international potash supply.
There is a tight supply of domestic marketable goods
Due to the recent general rise in the prices of agricultural products and the general rise in farmers’ planting enthusiasm, the demand for potassium fertilizer has increased greatly. However, the available spot in the domestic potassium chloride market is in short supply, and the domestic inventory is relatively low. Although domestic potassium chloride plants have resumed production, some small plants are still under maintenance. It is roughly estimated that the inventory of potassium chloride in the port is about 2-2.5 million tons, but the saleable volume is less than 1 million tons. At the same time, recent rainstorms occurred frequently in Qinghai, and the commencement and shipment of potassium chloride decreased slightly.
Import and export
Import: from January to June, China imported 4.53 million tons of potassium chloride, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%; Among them, the import of potassium chloride in June was 488600 tons, down 11% from 549700 tons in May, basically the same as that in the same period last year. Export: from January to June, China exported 168500 tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 53.2% over the same period last year. In June, China exported 37800 tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 126.3% over the same period last year.
Short supply, bullish outlook
The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in early August or high consolidation. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may continue to consolidate at a high level in the short term, focusing on the international market and arrival in Hong Kong.