Commodity index: on June 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.35, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.53% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.59% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data of Business News Agency (100ppi. Com), in June, the price fluctuation of polyacrylamide was very small, no more than 1%, showing a trend of flat first, then down, and then up. On the 1st, the domestic mainstream reported 14383.33 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream reported 14460 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of only 0.53%; Among them, the highest price of this month is 14383.33 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 14300 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 0.58%.

Upstream raw material: this month, the market of raw material acrylonitrile first rose rapidly, then fluctuated, then weakened slightly, and then remained stable: at the beginning of the month, the crude oil led to the rise of propylene, which led to the rise of acrylonitrile, with an increase of 3.87% in the first half of the month, and the price rose to 15040.00 yuan / ton on the 10th; In the second half of the month, the price dropped slightly by 1.47% to about 14930.00 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere was light, the cost support was general, the downstream demand performance was not strong, and the supply and demand situation was not affected by the device maintenance. The market has been stable for a while after the shock and decline.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise sharply, and the price kept rising in the first half of the month, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. In May, the LPG market experienced twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on May 5 was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and on March 31 was 4143.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, the highest price in May was 4306.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 4.02%. In June, at the beginning of the month, 4143.33 yuan / ton, the rise of international crude oil led Shandong civil gas market to stop falling and go up. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong civil gas market was supported by good news and went up as a whole, but the price rise did not continue. Weak terminal demand brought obvious constraints to the market, and the upward route was blocked again. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of Shandong civil gas market was 4266.67 yuan / ton. In the second quarter, the domestic mainstream quotation of LPG fluctuated greatly, with the highest price of 4410 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 4000 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 10.25%.

Downstream demand: in this quarter, the environmental protection shutdown period of the previous quarter was extended, the inventory was consumed, and the price rose slightly. However, after the resumption of production, the production of the enterprise recovered, the inventory increased rapidly, and the change of downstream demand was still tepid, the polyacrylamide inventory accumulated, and the demand was weak, which played a reverse role on the market, And this quarter polyacrylamide has a small rise, mainly affected by changes in raw material prices. During the three months of this quarter, although some manufacturers occasionally stopped production, the overall inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the polyacrylamide market was generally weak.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in addition to the end of the month due to the environmental protection shutdown, the production of water treatment plants in June was basically normal, the polyacrylamide inventory was sufficient, the demand did not change significantly, and the market had no obvious action. The only thing worth noting is that due to the sharp rise of crude oil in this quarter, the downstream industry chain rose, and the price of propylene also went up. As the downstream of propylene, the price of acrylonitrile rose to a certain extent. However, due to the weak promotion of the downstream, the upward range was small and the sustainability was not strong; As the downstream of acrylonitrile, the joint action of polyacrylamide weakened again, and the downstream demand was not strong, which led to the overall weak price; At the same time, the role of LPG price changes has not been correctly reflected. Overall, this month’s polyacrylamide market is weak and volatile, and the short-term changes in the future market will not be obvious, mainly stable.