Recent trend of urea price
As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2386.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2505.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 4.96%, and a year-on-year increase of 52.13%. On the whole, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index of 126.98 on June 4, showing an upward trend over the weekend.
The upstream support is good, the downstream demand increases, and the supply side is tight
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. The urea price of Yangmei plain this weekend is 2460 yuan / ton, which is 70 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2550 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 150 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.
From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the overall price of upstream urea products increased significantly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 3593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3616.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.65%, 46.42% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose sharply, from 890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 936.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 5.20%, 69.53% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply, from 4173.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4350.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.23%, 41.85% over the same period last year. The quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea fell slightly this week, from 9333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.36%.
From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories started relatively high, the new orders of enterprises followed up well, melamine production resumed one after another, and the demand further increased. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the unit maintenance of urea enterprises remains the same, the average operating rate is about 75%, the daily output is 155000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. On the whole, this week’s urea cost support is good, downstream demand increases, urea supply is tight, and supply exceeds demand.
The price is still strong in the future
In the first ten days of June, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is rising and the industrial demand is also rising slightly, but the supply of urea is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will not meet the demand in the short term, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.