In 2020, the price of NBR will drop first and then rise,

In 2020, the price of NBR dropped from 16333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 13266 yuan / ton on April 21.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

From late April to early September, the price of NBR fluctuated between 13266 yuan / ton and 14000 yuan / ton. The price of NBR fluctuated in a narrow range in the second and third quarters, which was mainly affected by raw materials and supply and demand side. On the one hand, the operating rate of NBR was low, basically hovering below 60-70%. Although the operating rate rose after August, the supply side was relatively tight in the third and fourth quarters, which formed a certain support for NBR; on the other hand, the cost side of Brent crude oil was between 20-44 US dollars / barrel, which was low The price of NBR was suppressed; in addition, although the demand side was better than that at the beginning of the year, it still did not reach the previous ideal state, so the demand side was also bad for NBR.

 

At the beginning of September, the price of NBR began to rise rapidly, from 13583 yuan / ton in early September to 19566 yuan / ton on December 15, the highest point of the year, and then dropped slightly to 19000 yuan / ton at the end of the year. Although the rise in the third and fourth quarters was also driven by the rebound of raw material prices in the early stage, it was mainly affected by the supply and demand side in the later stage. First, the price of raw materials rose, forming support for NBR. The price of butadiene increased from 5612 yuan / ton in early September to 9938 yuan / ton in late November, with an overall increase of 77.08%. Secondly, the operating rate of jinjiuyinshi NBR continued to drop to 75%, with little pressure on the supply side; finally, since September, the epidemic situation abroad continued to be serious, the demand for medical NBR gloves was strong, the supply of NBR latex exceeded the demand, and the price rose to nearly 30000 yuan / ton. Driven by profits, some manufacturers switched production lines of NBR and switched to NBR latex. The supply of other brands of NBR in the market decreased. In addition, the operating rate of downstream insulation foaming and hose industries of jinjiuyinshi traditional NBR dry rubber increased compared with the previous period. The whole demand side showed a strong performance and had a rigid support for NBR dry rubber.

 

As shown in the figure above, the trend of butadiene in 2020 will have a partial impact on NBR. At the beginning of the year, the price of butadiene dropped from 8312 yuan / ton to 3501 yuan / ton on April 16, with an overall drop of 57.88%, but the price of NBR only dropped by 18.87%. Butadiene prices began to rebound in late July, while NBR remained in a narrow range. Butadiene and NBR began to synchronize in October, and the decline rate of butadiene in December was significantly lower than that of NBR again. To sum up, the price of NBR in 2020 will be affected not only by butadiene, but also by supply and demand side.

 

Future forecast: business analysts believe that at present, due to the epidemic situation has not improved in the short term, the consumption of medical gloves is still huge, and the demand for nitrile rubber latex is strong, so as to continue to boost the nitrile dry rubber market; in addition, the OPEC meeting has reached an agreement, there will be no huge increase in crude oil in the next few months, the bullish atmosphere of crude oil will be stronger, and the raw material cost will have a certain impact in the next few months It is expected that the price of NBR will remain at a high level in the first half of 2021, and even if it falls, the range will not be too large. In the second half of 2021, with the vaccination of Xinguan vaccine, the epidemic situation may tend to be well controlled, and the consumption of medical gloves may fall to a certain extent. At that time, the price of NBR will fall to a certain extent. However, with the improvement of macro economy, the price of NBR will rise steadily. On the whole, the price of NBR will show a V-shaped trend in 2021, and it will be an annual low in 2021.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>