1、 Price trend
The price of pure benzene fell again this week, down 17.95% from last week, after falling 9.13% last week, according to the data in the business club’s large list. This week, the price of pure benzene fell for two consecutive times. Last Friday (March 13), the price of pure benzene was 4350-4900 yuan / ton (average price 4680 yuan / ton), and this Friday, the price of pure benzene was 3500-4200 yuan / ton (average price 3840 yuan / ton), down 17.95% from last week. Wednesday and Thursday saw two significant declines, 8.55% and 9.4% respectively.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
2、 Analysis and comment
1. Product: this week, the price center of pure benzene moved down again, and the port inventory accumulated slightly. As of March 20, Sinopec has adjusted the listing price of pure benzene four times this month, with a total reduction of 1650 yuan / ton. On March 3, the price of pure benzene was slightly and tentatively lowered; on October 10, 18 and 19, the listing price of pure benzene was significantly reduced, with a total decrease of 1450 yuan / ton, or 28.63%. At the beginning of the month, the average listing price of pure benzene was 5380.2 yuan / ton, and on the 20th, the average listing price was 3840 yuan / ton, down 28.63%. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene on Tuesday, which exceeded market expectations, leading to weak market negotiations. In addition, the import of pure benzene fell sharply, and the market was in a bad mood.
3. Outside: this week, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell 96.67 US dollars / ton, down 18.59%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell 112 US dollars / ton, down 20.66%. Deep fall in the external market, greatly negative domestic pure benzene, internal and external arbitrage open.
3. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and Russia insist on reducing prices and increasing production. This week, oil prices continue to decline without any sign of suspension, driving commodities down. Oil prices rebounded strongly Thursday on news that the US might intervene in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent fell 6.465% and WTI fell 6.2% compared with March 13. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 61.99% and WTI by 57.36%.
4. Downstream industry: styrene inventory pressure is high this week, coupled with cost pressure, and prices continue to weaken. The price of styrene in Shandong was 6250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 5633.33 yuan / ton on Friday, down 9.87% from last week.
Affected by inventory pressure and cost, aniline prices were lowered at the beginning of the week, and later enterprises showed a wait-and-see trend. On Friday, the price in Shandong was 5900 yuan / ton, down 4.84% from last Friday; in Nanjing, it was 6150 yuan / ton, down 4.65% from last Friday.
| ammonium persulfate |
3、 Future forecast
1. Crude oil: next week’s crude oil is still short of a sharp pick-up. However, we need to pay attention to the possible US intervention in the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia and the key supporting position of US $20 / barrel.
2. Market: the downstream products are dragged down by the weak terminal demand, the release of inventory is slow, and the pure benzene market continues to be negative. In the near future, the internal and external arbitrage has been opened, and the subsequent Southeast Asian low-cost goods sources or arbitrage into China; in addition, the pure benzene plant has gradually increased its load, and the subsequent contradiction between supply and demand is more prominent.
Under the short-term contradiction between supply and demand, it is difficult for pure benzene to improve substantially. It is expected that pure benzene will reach a new low.
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