This week, the domestic butadiene market was tidied up narrowly. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 9667 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 10,000 yuan/ton at the weekend, 0.33% increase in the week, 5.13% maximum amplitude in the week, 17.64% rise in the price cycle, 22.05% decline over the previous year.
II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: This week, the domestic butadiene market was weaker. Although Sinopec’s price continued to rise by 200 yuan/ton, the price of northern export manufacturers fell to about 9000 yuan/ton. Due to the weak trend of the downstream synthetic rubber market, the high butadiene level has led to the prominent cost pressure of manufacturers. In the week, the butadiene-styrene and cis-butadiene rubber industry started to go down to a certain extent. In addition, the latex industry just needs to support weak, and the overall demand for butadiene weakened. Recently, northern manufacturers export normally, and a small amount of Fushun Petrochemical supply, the market supply increased slightly, weak supply and demand dragged most of the nodal manufacturers on Thursday, aggravating the market downturn. In terms of price, Shandong’s top-grade products are delivered at a price reference of 9700-9800 yuan/ton, a drop of 600 yuan/ton annually, while East China’s deliveries at a price reference of 10300-10400 yuan/ton, a drop of 200 yuan/ton annually, and the market inquiry atmosphere is depressed.
Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 # long-term shutdown; 1 # and 2 # total 120,000 tons/year plant normal operation; Zhenhai refinery and chemical 165,000 tons/year plant normal operation, mutual supply is the main, a small amount of export; Liaotong Petrochemical 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant normal operation, bidding export trading range 9510-9518 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical 160,000 tons/year plant is in normal operation, and there is no export for the time being. The 100,000-ton/year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Silbang, Jiangsu, stopped on July 29 and plans to restart.
Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, only CNOOC Northeast sales of styrene-butadiene rubber prices down, domestic styrene-butadiene rubber factory prices as a whole stable, dry rubber 1502 billing price 10600-10700 yuan/ton, stable than last period; styrene-butadiene rubber 1712 billing price 9600-9750 yuan/ton, stable than last period. Market prices fell, Qilu 1502E quoted near 10,600 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton lower than last week; Qilu 1712 quoted at 9,650 yuan/ton; Qilu 1712 quoted 250 yuan/ton lower than last week.
Cis-butadiene rubber: This week, the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable; the domestic mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis-butadiene rubber is stable in the range of 10600-10800 yuan/ton; only CNOOC Northeast Sales Company returns to the mainstream price and adjusts it. Mainstream offer prices fell to the range of 10800-11100 yuan/ton, which is different from last week’s decline of 100-400 yuan/ton.
3. Future Market Forecast
On the positive side, the external market is high, Sinopec’s price is rising and its supply is limited. On the negative side, the overall decline of the cis-butadiene rubber industry led to a negative downstream mentality. Although Sinopec and external prices are high, and the market is difficult to replenish shipments, which supports some businesses’mentality, the short-term northern export manufacturers’ business is not smooth, dragging down the supply price, the initial decline of the market, downstream wait-and-see mentality is more obvious. At the same time, with the restart of Sirbang Petrochemical Plant and the steady operation of Nanjing Chengzhi, the overall market supply is expected to increase significantly. Business analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly next week. It is suggested that attention be paid to supplier prices and transaction conditions.