According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week is 11000 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week is 11000 yuan / ton, which is stable.

Products: at present, the price of domestic activated carbon is temporarily stable, and the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market is lack of favorable conditions to support, and the goods are mostly ordered.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the single order, the purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, the environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and the performance of the activated carbon market is stable.

Forecast: the actual transaction of activated carbon market is still not ideal, the trading continues to be stalemate, and the delivery pace is relatively slow.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, the recent market of lithium carbonate is dominated by stable operation, and the quotations of some enterprises are slightly reduced. At present, the overall supply of lithium salt is relatively sufficient, the demand side performance is still poor, and the market trading atmosphere is general. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China on May 8 was 41800 yuan / ton, down 0.24% compared with April 30. On May 8, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 46200 yuan / ton, down 1.07% compared with April 30. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 39000-45000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 45000-48000 yuan / ton.

On May 8, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 106.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 73.71% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.08% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 8, 2020, among which there is one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are crude benzene (14.59%), phenol (4.93%) and aniline (4.35%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are styrene (- 1.22%), adipic acid (- 1.21%) and light soda ash (- 1.21%). The average price of this day is 0.57%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, at present, the market demand is not strong, and the downstream market is mainly just in need of purchase, and the transaction is relatively cold. It is expected that the market situation of lithium carbonate will be weak and stable in the short term.

Market Overview:

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province rose sharply during the May 1st period. At the beginning of this week, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was about 2000 yuan / ton. At the end of this week, the average price of dichloromethane was about 2200 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 10% in the week.

Market analysis:

Products: during the May 1st period, due to the high price of liquid chlorine for raw materials and the negative impact of the maintenance of some enterprises in East China of Shandong Province, the price of dichloromethane rose sharply, the enterprise’s inventory pressure was not great, the downstream purchase and stock up situation was acceptable, and the market mentality after the festival was poor, mainly to maintain stability. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2200-2250 yuan / ton, in South China about 3200 yuan / ton, and in East China about 1950 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, affected by the increase of downstream replenishment and freight, the domestic methanol market price has recovered, at present, it is about 1727 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is high and volatile, and the market supply is well supported. At present, the quotation in North China is about 300-600 yuan / ton, and in East China is 700-850 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market continued to decline, the market trading was cold, and there was no obvious sign of improvement. At present, the price hovered around 15000 yuan / ton; the purchase of solvent and pharmaceutical pesticide industry was weak, and the price support for chloroform was insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, the operation rate of dichloromethane market is low at present, which is about 40-50% as a whole. The inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, but the demand of downstream market is not good, and the enterprises are on the edge of profit and loss. It is expected that the operation will be stable in a short time.

On May 6, the fluorite commodity index was 90.64, down 6.44 points from yesterday, 28.90% from 127.49 (2019-01-03), the highest point in the cycle, and 84.19% higher than 49.21, the lowest point on December 18, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite continues to decline. As of 7 days, the average price of domestic fluorite is 2577.78 yuan / ton. In recent years, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant is relatively high, the mine and flotation plant in the site are gradually resumed, the supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is declining in recent years. For the purchase on demand in fluorite market, the situation of fluorite in the site is poor, and the price trend of fluorite market is declining. In the near future, the operation rate of downstream units is relatively low, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is sufficient, and the downstream terminal purchases on demand, resulting in a slight decline in market price. As of July 7, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2600 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2400-2700 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and that of fluorite continued to decline.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite fell. As of the 7th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9130 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream market of fluorite. However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant was generally, the demand for fluorite was normal, the supply of goods in the site was sufficient, and the price of fluorite continued to decline. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry has been in a downturn, and the trend of the downstream refrigerant market is poor. The demand for the refrigerant has been declining. The special events abroad are serious. The export of the refrigerant terminal is not smooth, and it is mainly supplied to the domestic market. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the demand for after-sales maintenance is weak. Overall, the domestic and foreign demand is not as expected. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is reduced, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the price is under pressure due to the drag of demand. However, the situation of market price or not is obvious. The mainstream price of R22 in domestic large enterprises is 15000-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price of fluorite market continues to decline.

On the whole, the market of downstream refrigerant industry is weak, the supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the recent price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is falling. Chen Ling, an analyst of business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may continue to decline slightly in the short term.

Commodity index: on April 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% C from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in April 2020, the production of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers was normal, but the demand continued to be low, some enterprises had high inventory, and the overall quotation of this month showed a small fluctuation downward trend. This month’s main quotation: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content, 10%-12%, including 350-400 yuan / ton in tax, 860-900 yuan / ton in solid and content 20-21%, 24% yuan in price, 1200-1250 yuan / ton in content, 26% yuan in price, 26% yuan in price, and 1600-2000 yuan / ton in solid content, 28% yuan in price, 30% yuan in price. About 0 yuan / ton, the quotation at the end of the month is about 50-100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month, down by 4.44%.

Upstream: according to the data of business agency, in April, the mainstream factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a trend of fluctuation, with 1 daily report of 253.33 yuan / ton, 10 days up to 270 yuan / ton, until 22 days after the quotation of 280 yuan / ton, it turned down to 29 daily reports of 196.67 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer shall be subject to negotiation. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal. Downstream: the current water treatment market demand is still low, and enterprises generally reflect that this year’s goods are hard to sell, engineering negotiation is difficult, and the cycle is long.

Industry: during the Spring Festival holiday in January 2020 to February 20, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost returned to normal. In April, the overall production was normal. Due to the difficulty of shipment, some enterprises still had high inventory, which affected their production.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current market is generally weak due to the poor demand and high inventory. The high-speed recovery of charges will start on May 6, and the transportation cost will be increased. Affected by the cost, polyaluminium chloride may be slightly increased in the future market to hedge the risk of market decline caused by weak demand, and it is more likely to stabilize after a small increase in the overall future market.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April, the domestic market price of polyester filament showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At present, the price of polyester poy150d / 48F, polyester dty150d / 48F, polyester fdy150d / 96F and polyester fdy150d / 96F in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is reported as 4900-5050 yuan / ton, 6400-6900 yuan / ton and 5550-5600 yuan / ton respectively. At the beginning of the month, affected by the news of crude oil cooperation and production reduction, the raw material market was strongly supported, the market speculative bottom reading and replenishment market appeared, the volume of transactions of polyester filament products was large, and the price rose slightly, but with the weakening of raw materials and weak demand, the market transaction atmosphere fell, and the price began to fall on April 10, among which polyester POY declined significantly, as of the 27th, polyester POY (150D / 48F) market The average price is 4944 yuan / ton, down 7.83% compared with that of the 10th day.

Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton

Product: April 10, 2020 April 27, up and down April, up and down year on year

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5364 4944 – 7.83% 1.02% – 43.97%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5905 5565 – 5.76% 5.60% – 39.62%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7176 6801 – 5.23% – 3.10% – 34.49%

At the raw material end, the crude oil plummeted, the market mentality was frustrated, and the energy sector sentiment was depressed. Although the recent price has stopped falling and picked up, it still maintains a relatively low trend. The global crude oil demand has been sharply reduced, but the supply end is still showing an increasing trend. Under the pressure of storage capacity, the market fundamentals are still weak. In March, affected by the weak domestic demand, PTA factory inventory pressure is large, domestic PTA production enterprises have to repair and stop production, PTA operation rate fell to 69% in the middle and late March. With the end of the maintenance period and the impact of crude oil weakening, the decline of chemicals closer to the upstream is more and more big. Under the benefit of naphtha and PX, the PTA processing fee once rose to 805 yuan / ton last week. Under such a high processing fee level, the production enthusiasm of PTA plant is very high, which leads to the recent PTA operation rate has been at the level of more than 90%, significantly higher than the same period of previous years. At the same time, the demand side has not improved significantly, so PTA is still in the obvious accumulation in the whole April. Up to now, PTA social inventory is 3.35 million tons. It should be noted that with the continuous production of new devices, the PTA capacity in China has reached 52.255 million tons, and the PTA capacity in 2020 is significantly higher than the previous capacity base, so the overall market supply pressure is very large.

Statistics of recent PTA plant changes

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Ningbo Yisheng 200 stopped short on April 20 and has now returned to normal operation

Ningbo Yisheng 220 postponed maintenance to May

Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. plans to stop for maintenance from May 6, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days

Tianjin Petrochemical 34 was overhauled on April 17, with a planned overhaul period of 1 month

Hanbang Petrochemical 60 failed to stop on April 17, and has been restarted

Yadong Petrochemical will stop for maintenance from April 25, and restart on April 29

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Jialong Petrochemical 60 stopped for maintenance on August 2, and the restart time is to be determined

The downstream weaving industry is in a downturn. At present, the trading volume of light textile city is significantly lower than that of the same period in recent years, and the market trading is light. From the perspective of the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, as of April 26, the comprehensive operating rate was 48.00%. In the face of the coming May Day holiday, some enterprises have begun to take holidays. At the same time, due to the impact of this public health event, the export orders of weaving foreign trade were cancelled or postponed in large quantities. In the first quarter of 2020, the cumulative export amount of China’s textiles and clothing was 45.26 billion US dollars, down 17.7% compared with the same period of last year, including 22.69 billion US dollars for textiles, down 14.6% compared with the same period of last year, and 22.57 billion US dollars for clothing, down 20.6% compared with the same period of last year.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business club, believes that due to the impact of crude oil decline, the cost center of gravity has shifted down, PTA has continued to accumulate the pressure of storage, and there is no turning point to go to storage, high inventory or become the normal state of PTA, and the current PTA fundamentals are not well boosted. The downstream terminal weaving foreign trade order is missing, the domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, and near the May Day holiday, some weaving enterprises have plans to stop work in advance for the holiday, there are negative expectations. Affected by upstream and downstream drag, polyester filament market is expected to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the main domestic styrene prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week and began to rise slightly on Thursday. The price of sample enterprises on Monday (April 20) was 5150.00 yuan / ton, and the price of sample enterprises on Friday (April 24) was 5000.00 yuan / ton, down 2.91%, 40.12% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week’s styrene market fell slightly after a weak rebound. East China on April 20: East China styrene closed at 5150 yuan / ton. On April 24, East China styrene closed at 4950-5100 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On April 20, South China styrene closed at 5100-5200 yuan / ton, and on April 24, South China styrene closed at 4950-5000 yuan / ton, down by 100 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week’s styrene market was mainly volatile, with a slight decline in the overall market.

Industrial chain:

The trend of international crude oil fluctuated sharply. The overall oil price fluctuated downward. At the beginning of the week, the oil price fell sharply. Wti05 contract delivery showed a historical negative value. But on Thursday, the crude oil price was gradually put on the agenda with the renewed tension of the “US Iraq” relationship and the production reduction of OPEC + and other oil producing countries. The oil price rebounded strongly, styrene market sentiment rose, and the price stopped rising on Thursday. In the upstream, the price of pure benzene was stable compared with last week, while the price of ethylene declined, while the price of PS, EPS and ABS in the downstream decreased slightly. Styrene inventory in East China port fell this week, but it is still higher than the same period last year. At the end of April, the amount of styrene imported from East China increased, and the restart of domestic styrene plant gradually increased. It is expected that the operation rate of domestic styrene plant will reach about 74.5%. In the short term, it is difficult to change the situation that styrene supply exceeds demand. Although the downstream of styrene still keeps considerable profits, there is little new demand for styrene, and most of it is pre-sale.

3、 Future outlook

As a whole, the whole styrene market lacks strong support points. In May, the situation of styrene supply surplus still exists, but crude oil has a great impact on the styrene industry chain, and the crude oil price is still likely to rebound. It is expected that next week, styrene will be mainly consolidated in a weak shock with a price of 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

1、 Price trend:

On April 25, crude benzene commodity index was 35.23, unchanged from yesterday, 73.28% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 15.36% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the domestic pure benzene market and the external market are lower this week. WTI crude oil futures in May fell 55.90 US dollars to – 37.63 US dollars / barrel on the 20th of this week. The start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is still at a low level this week. The cost pressure of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is large. The bidding price of crude benzene enterprises this week is adjusted. As of Friday, the quotation in Shandong region is around 2050 yuan / ton, about 800 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil, the business community believes that the oil price will still fluctuate in a wide range at a low level in the near future. Although there are some favorable releases at the supply side in the short term, considering the continuous impact of the epidemic, the problem at the demand side is the most critical factor restricting the oil price at present. Even though trump said that the economy of the United States will restart in May, the effect may be greatly reduced in terms of the current situation of the epidemic in the United States. In particular, the global crude oil inventory has risen sharply, and the pressure on storage capacity will only become more and more serious. The growth of commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States is much larger than expected. It is also predicted that the global oil storage space may be exhausted in the next few weeks, and the operating rate of refineries may fall again, which will also force oil producing countries to further reduce production, and crude oil may be in epidemic in the future To seek rebalancing under the condition of low demand caused by emotion.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acetone (10.26%), acetic acid (8.14%) and ethanol (3.33%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 14.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are hydrochloric acid (- 29.76%), crude benzene (- 17.03%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 12.35%). This week’s average was – 1.76%.

Three, trend forecast:

Next week is the last trading week before the May Day holiday. Near the small and long holiday, some manufacturers should have certain purchase plans. It is expected that crude benzene prices will rise slightly.

1、 Price trend:

On April 19, crude benzene commodity index was 42.46, flat with that of yesterday, down 67.79% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.03% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: Sinopec’s pure benzene rose 150 yuan / ton on Tuesday this week, driven by pure benzene, the bidding price of crude benzene rose this week, up to 2950 yuan / ton in Shandong as of Friday. In Shandong Province, the price has been raised due to the shortage of goods, but the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been intensively overhauled in the near future, with a low operating rate of about 40%, and little support for crude benzene demand.

Industrial chain: crude oil: OPEC + oil producing countries finally reached the largest production reduction agreement in history, but the strength was not as expected by the market, unable to offset the impact of public health events on demand collapse. This week investors returned to reason after a brief “euphoria” over the agreement to cut production and crude oil fell back. Brent fell $3.59, or 15.13%, this week from April 9, while WTI fell $3.79, or 13.15%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 69.83% and WTI by 58.81%. Pure benzene: after last week’s bottom reading, the market speculation began to slow down this week. On Tuesday, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3050 yuan / ton. East China’s port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the downstream factories in the north were active in purchasing, the spot supply in the market was insufficient and the price was high. The East China Shandong arbitrage window opened to support the pure benzene market. Downstream products: this week, the market price of styrene fell, and the rising sentiment in the market dissipated. Most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales to maintain stable shipment. On Friday, Shandong’s price was 5150 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from last week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there are 38 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which 14 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are acrylic acid (25.40%), maleic anhydride (19.02%) and crude benzene (15.55%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are propylene (- 34.79%), propylene oxide (- 13.77%) and propane (- 11.46%). This week’s average was up or down 1.02%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

It is estimated that the world crude oil consumption will shrink by about 20 million barrels / day in 2020. If demand collapses, without strong intervention from the supply side, it will be difficult for oil prices to strengthen. Moreover, the short-term agreement on production reduction cannot offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction of demand, and the oil market cannot get rid of the dilemma of excess supply and demand. In addition, crude oil consumption enters into the off-season from April to may, and seasonal factors will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand in the oil market, thus making the oil price face the risk of downward focus. In terms of pure benzene, East China’s supply enters Shandong, or its price is restrained. The downstream demand is mainly rigid, and it is expected that the price support of crude benzene in the future is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2513.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2350.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.50%, down 25.46% compared with the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 61.57 on April 17.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganeng’s offer of calcium carbide this weekend was 2400 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s offer of calcium carbide this week was 2400 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s offer of calcium carbide this weekend was 2350 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia’s offer of calcium carbide this week was 23 yuan / ton 00 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation dropped 100 yuan / ton.

At the end of this week, the actual transaction price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Shaanxi is about 2400 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is about 2300 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2350 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

（2） Industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of Lancan carbon fell this week. Overall, the drop was about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of small materials is 560 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 580 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is 650 yuan / ton. The price of upstream raw materials fell and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price decreased from 5675.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5657.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.31%, 16.06% compared with the same period last year. PVC prices fell this week, the market tends to be low, and the purchasing enthusiasm for calcium carbide is also low. Overall, PVC market this week has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, the cost support is not enough, the price of PVC in the downstream is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of customers in the downstream is low. In the late April, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China is expected to drop slightly.