According to the business club’s big list data, last week (11.16-20), the domestic adipic acid market rose slightly, by 2.46%, and the increase slowed down significantly. And most of the dealers’ quotations maintain a stable trend, East China, South China and other regions gradually stop rising. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation range of adipic acid is 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in November, about 80%. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was moderate. Dealers usually take the goods normally. At present, there are signs that the manufacturers’ inventory is gradually over to the dealers, and the dealers are also showing signs of high price accumulation.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price stands at $40, and the range adjustment has weakened the impact on the downstream chemical industry. However, the business agency recorded a sharp rise in pure benzene this month, with an increase of more than 18% as of November 20. As shown in the figure above, the price of adipic acid is also maintained at a high level due to the pressure of cost (as shown in the figure above). However, since last week, the price of pure benzene has dropped slightly, and the cost may be lost later There is still room for prices to go down.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance was rigid and stable. Although the chemical industry recovered steadily in the late stage of the epidemic, the operating rate of downstream factories increased slightly. In addition, the rigid consumption of polyurethane in the downstream was stable, and the market of PA66 also rose sharply. Up to now, the price of PA66 rose by 30% in November, as shown in the figure above. However, the price rise of PA66 slowed down in the last weekend, and it is expected that the upward space in the later period will be limited.

In the later stage, it seems that the market of adipic acid is mainly driven by the upstream and downstream, and whether the price of adipic acid can rise in the later period depends on whether the demand can keep up with it. However, at present, with the approach of winter, the downstream operating rate may decline. At present, the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. The space for downstream PA66 to continue to advance is also limited. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain a high level in the near future and continue to rise The possibility of falling back is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic baking soda is weak. From November 16 to November 20, the average price in the domestic market was 1556.67 yuan / ton. On November 19, the bicarbonate commodity index was 103.32, flat with yesterday, down 15.09% from 121.68 (October 21, 2020), and 3.32% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on September 06, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business club, the price of baking soda is weak. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan Province is falling, and the mainstream market quotation is about 1350-1500 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of sodium bicarbonate in Hebei Province has been lowered, and the mainstream quotation in the market is about 1450-1600 yuan / ton, and the downstream is mostly purchased on demand.

As for raw materials, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stable, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash in the later stage will be dominated. The price of soda ash in North China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general and the overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. The price of light soda ash is about 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak and stable in the short term.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is weak, and the price of sodium bicarbonate is weak. According to the analysts of the business agency, the domestic soda ash market is temporarily stabilized, the market atmosphere is light, the downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude is the main factor, and it is expected that the weak operation of soda ash will be the main trend in the later stage. In terms of downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate in medicine, textile and food is not strong, and the transaction of sodium bicarbonate is general. It is expected that the price of sodium bicarbonate will be mainly weak and stable in the later stage.

In the half of November, the LPG market was greatly affected by international crude oil, and the overall trend was first up and then down. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 3100.00 yuan / ton on November 1 and 3093.33 yuan / ton on November 18, down 0.22% in the first half of the month. During this period, the largest earthquake amplitude was 4.33%, and the price was 20.82% lower than that of the same period last year.

As of November 18, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification, mode of transportation, region, date, mainstream transaction price

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China November 18: 3050-3200 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in East China on November 18, 3120-3260 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China November 18: 3350-3380 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong on November 18, 3100-3120 yuan / ton

Civil gas transportation by truck in Northeast China November 18 2850-3050 yuan / ton

Civil gas transported by automobile along the river on November 18, 3330-3530 yuan / ton

According to the data of the business agency, this year’s LPG market is not as good as last year’s, and the overall price is lower this year. In November, the trend of civil gas in Shandong Province fluctuated. In the first week of November, the overall situation was mainly upward. With the introduction of CP price in November at the end of last year, both propylene and butane rose sharply, which brought obvious benefits to the market. In addition, during the period, the international crude oil industry was dominant, the downstream mentality was better, and the market entry was more positive. Most manufacturers delivered goods smoothly, and the inventory was generally free of pressure, and the mentality was firm, which pushed up the price slightly continuously.

Entering the second week, Shandong civil gas market as a whole fell first and then rose with crude oil. Although the international crude oil fell slightly on July 9, restraining the market, it continued to rise sharply on September 12, and domestic gas followed the upward trend. And with the weather cooling, the terminal demand is better, the news and demand side are both good, supporting a large increase in LPG. Factory shipment smooth, strong mentality. However, in terms of market supply, some manufacturers in the region have resumed production, and the market supply has increased, which has a certain constraint on the price rise.

At present, the third week is coming to an end. Due to the decline of crude oil on the 15th, Shandong civil gas market is lack of favorable support, following the decline. The current price has fallen back to the price before the rise in November. The decline of international crude oil has brought a certain blow to the market. With the end of early replenishment, downstream companies have withdrawn from the market to consume inventory. Manufacturers’ shipment is hindered, and the market transaction atmosphere has become weaker than that in the previous period. At present, there is no obvious pressure on manufacturers’ inventory, and the decline range is limited.

LPG futures market fluctuated and fell in November, which had limited positive effect on spot market

On November 18, 2012, the opening price of LPG futures was 3595, the highest price was 3636, the lowest price was 3530, the closing price was 3621, the previous settlement price was 3578, and the settlement price was 3583, with an increase of 43 or 1.20%, the trading volume was 63506, the position was 26146, and the daily increase was – 6533. (unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the civil gas market in Shandong Province is mainly weak, but the small rise of international crude oil has brought some support to the market. Although the manufacturers’ shipment has turned light, there is still no obvious pressure on the inventory. The current enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and the decline space of LPG civil market is limited. It is expected that the civil gas horizontal consolidation will be the main trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rose steadily this week. As of Friday, the average price in the domestic market was about 3440 yuan / ton, up 4.24% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Boosted by the surge in international crude oil prices, toluene prices rose steadily this week. Sinopec’s listed toluene prices generally rose 100-200 yuan / ton this week. The port inventory is at a high level. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 65000 tons, so the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream blending oil and solvent demand is general. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3520 yuan / ton. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the optimism that the vaccine news will boost crude oil demand at the beginning of the week, and the crude oil inventory decline announced by the American Petroleum Association is significantly higher than expected, which supports the strong rebound of international crude oil. It rebounds to around $43 / barrel on Wednesday and then gradually falls back to close around 40 on Friday. At the beginning of next week, we will focus on the gains and losses of $40 / barrel support. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $3.485/barrel to close at $41.785/barrel, up 9.1% month on month. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

Downstream, TDI continued the downward trend this week, the market mentality is cautious, trading atmosphere is weak, pay attention to factory policy guidance. At present, 13000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 13200 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to decline. In terms of PX market, Sinopec’s listed price this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 510 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 528 US dollars / ton CFR China. Short term PX market is expected to decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that toluene in the domestic market will recover slightly next week.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 16, the average price of domestic power lithium iron phosphate was 37000.00 yuan / ton, the market price was stable, the supply and demand were balanced, the downstream demand was limited, and the purchase was just needed, and there was no significant increase. At present, the price of power type lithium iron phosphate was stable, the market price was mainly stable, and the price change was not obvious.

The market price range of lithium iron phosphate power is 33000-37000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 35000 yuan / ton. The price is stable, the downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and the overall market purchasing atmosphere is dull. At present, the price range of energy storage lithium iron phosphate is 28000-29000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 28750 yuan / ton. The quotation of power type lithium iron phosphate enterprises is 37000 yuan / ton of Guangdong Optical Technology Co., Ltd., Foshan Shanshi German Nano Technology Co., Ltd. 37000 yuan / ton, beiteri new energy materials Co., Ltd. 37000 yuan / ton, most of the enterprise quotation is stable, the merchants ship actively, actively yield profits, the transaction price basically maintains the cost online and offline, the profit is kept to the minimum, and it is expected that there will be a turning point.

At present, the mainstream price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 36500-39500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price range of battery grade lithium carbonate is 41000-45000 yuan / ton, and the price remains stable.

On November 15, the chemical index was 822 points, unchanged with yesterday, 19.09% lower than the highest point of 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 37.46% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Business Club lithium iron phosphate analysts believe that: lithium iron phosphate market demand is poor, in the short term to continue a stable trend. (the above prices are provided by major lithium iron phosphate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business lithium iron phosphate analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, this week, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate quoted 4100.00 yuan / ton. The current price fell by 1.50% month on month, and the current price was 5.48% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate remained stable. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, with relatively sufficient inventory and insufficient driving force to rise. The price of this week did not change much. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotations are different.

On November 13, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, which is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On November 13, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2200 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, potassium chloride supply is normal, future market is expected to be low consolidation of potassium chloride market. Potassium chloride market high and stable, can give potassium nitrate a certain cost support.

In recent years, the domestic price of potassium chloride is at a high level, and the subsequent supply of Port imported potassium is not sufficient. However, the downstream raw material procurement is not active. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

On November 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.29/barrel, up $3.15 or 8.48%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at 42.40 US dollars / barrel, up 2.95 US dollars or 7.48%. Oil prices surged on Monday, the biggest one-day gain in nearly five months, after Pfizer announced a major breakthrough in its new crown vaccine, which the company said could prevent 90% of infections. In addition, the Saudi energy minister said at a meeting on Monday that OPEC + could adjust its production reduction agreement if an agreement was reached, which also pushed up oil prices.

Although the price adjustment and reduction of domestic refined oil has been implemented, the rising international oil price and the bullish sentiment in the gasoline market are gradually rising, and the price of MTBE market is going up. The price of MTBE on November 6 was 3633 yuan / ton, up 3.13% from the price at the beginning of the week, according to business agency data.

At 24:00 on November 5, the domestic oil product market price was lowered, but the international crude oil price rose as a whole, the domestic oil product market bullish sentiment rose, and the gasoline price rose overall. And the EIA data showed that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data also had a significant positive impact on oil prices, stimulating domestic gasoline market transactions. This week, the shutdown and maintenance of MTBE units in Shandong increased, and the supply of MTBE resources decreased. In addition, the positive news of the international crude oil market continued to spread, and the international oil price rose. Manufacturers in Shandong Province actively pushed up the market price of MTBE.

According to MTBE product analysts of energy branch of business agency, the demand of international crude oil market is weak, and the price of international crude oil and gasoline market will still fall under pressure. Meanwhile, the price promotion of MTBE manufacturers can not be sustained. It is expected that domestic MTBE prices will be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, this week, the domestic first-class industrial grade potassium nitrate quoted 4100.00 yuan / ton. The current price fell by 1.50% month on month, and the current price was 5.48% lower than last year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate is stable, the trading atmosphere is general, downstream factories take more goods on demand, the inventory is relatively sufficient, and the rising power is insufficient. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 3900-4400 yuan / ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotations are different according to different purchasing conditions.

On November 6, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2200 yuan / ton of potassium chloride, which increased by 150 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. The potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operates normally. The ex factory quotation is 1950 yuan / ton, and the quotation is up by 100 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market rose, giving potassium nitrate cost support.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride is going up, and the supply of domestic potassium chloride and Port imported powdered potassium is relatively tight. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, but the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of November 5, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 9166.67 yuan / ton. Since the beginning of November, DMF has entered a continuous downward trend. At present, the latest price statistics show that the price of DMF has decreased by 22.75% compared with that at the beginning of this month, with a drop of more than 2000 yuan / ton. Recently, DMF has been running in a weak position with limited space for decline.

In November, the domestic DMF market price fell sharply and continued to fall. Some manufacturers had a daily drop of nearly 2000 yuan / ton. In a short period of time, the drop was more than 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the slow shipment and the reduction of new orders and new quantity have led to high inventory pressure, dull purchasing atmosphere, normal operation of enterprises’ devices, and reduction of downstream demand. The focus of DMF market is not stable, and there is no return in the short term Turn the favorable conditions, continue to maintain weak operation, weak shock operation.

The upstream methanol inventory is general, the shipment is fair, the mentality is stable, and the price is tentatively rising. At present, East China and South China have a small rise, and the price in Northeast China is stable.

On November 4, the chemical index was 799, down 7 points from yesterday, 21.36% from the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 33.61% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

DMF analysts believe that: the DMF market is currently running in a weak position, with a wide range of decline, and maintaining a downward trend in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)