According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on January 7, 2021, the price of lithium carbonate continued the upward trend at the end of 2020 and continued to rise. On January 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 56400 yuan / ton, which was 12.8% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 50000 yuan / ton on January 1). On January 7, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 60800 yuan / ton, which was 11.36% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 54600 yuan / ton on January 1). On July 7, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 52000 ~ 60000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 58000 ~ 65000 yuan / ton.

Benzalkonium chloride

 

By observing market changes, after the new year’s Day holiday, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. Due to the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the market is mainly in the state of active stock preparation, so the demand is still in a tense state, and some lithium carbonate enterprises are even in the state of tight spot and no stock reservation. In addition, in the first quarter, large factories began to repair and under the guidance of bullish sentiment, some downstream enterprises appeared the phenomenon of excessive procurement. With the approaching of logistics and transportation stoppage and continuous stocking, the price of lithium carbonate still has room to rise in the short term.

 

The price of lithium hydroxide in the lower reaches recovered and rose. The low-cost products in the market were basically cleared, and the demand side was dominated by overseas increment. The demand of some downstream and smelters shifted to working hydrogen, and the low-cost inventory was basically cleared. The price of working hydrogen and low-cost electric hydrogen led the rise. In terms of lithium iron phosphate power market, due to the rapid rise of lithium carbonate price, the cost pressure of lithium iron enterprises is increasing, and many manufacturers increase the price.

 

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, on January 6, 2021, there were 13 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, with polysilicon (2.62%), ethylene glycol (2.37%) and propane (2.07%) as the top three commodities. There were 17 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were acetone (- 5.46%), butadiene (- 5.06%) and butanone (- 3.32%).

 

According to lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, there is still room for the price of lithium carbonate to rise. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the logistics is limited, and the purchasing sentiment will gradually slow down. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may still rise steadily in the short term.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 6, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 21833 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the price a week ago; compared with the price on December 1, 2020 (reference price of 33333 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 11500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 34.50%.

 

Melamine

By the end of 2020, DMC will reduce its quotation three times, and the market will return to the era of 20000 +

 

From the beginning of December 2020, affected by the weakening of downstream demand and blocked conduction, on the 2nd, the market of silicone DMC fell sharply for the first time in the month, with a maximum reduction of 2000 yuan / ton. The reference price of silicone DMC was 32000-33000 yuan / ton. The downstream demand was not significantly boosted, and then the market continued to fluctuate and fall. On the 25th, for the second time in the month, silicone DMC manufacturers sharply reduced the ex factory quotation of DMC by 5000 yuan / ton. The low-end quotation of DMC fell to 22000 yuan / ton, and the market “fell continuously”. Near the end of the month, on the 29th, the leading enterprises of organic silicon lowered the ex factory quotation of DMC for the third time in the month. The low-end quotation of organic silicon dropped to 20500 yuan / ton, while the mainstream quotation of other factories was around 21000-22500 yuan / ton.

 

Weak stability enters 2021, supply and demand game of silicone DMC continues

 

In January 2021, the market trend of silicone DMC maintains a weak and stable operation. The transaction price of mainstream areas remains stable around 21000-23000 yuan / ton, and the interval adjustment is not much. The quotation of leading enterprise silicone DMC maintains a stable price of 20500 yuan / ton. At present, there is no trend of goods preparation before the Spring Festival in the downstream, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is cold, the procurement is also more cautious, and the demand is insufficient to support the rise of silicone market The game between supply and demand of silicone DMC is still going on. As of January 6, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in mainstream areas was 21833 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of a week ago. Compared with December 1, 2020 (reference price: 33333 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 11500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 34.50%.

 

With the increase of maintenance, the market of DMC will be more stable and stronger in the future

 

At present, the market of silicone DMC is weak, and the downstream response is not big. However, as the market price has dropped to the basic level at that time, there is little room to continue to fall. In addition, it is heard that some monomer plants in Shandong will be shut down for maintenance in the early spring festival, and the overall operating rate of the plant will drop. The inventory in the plant may be tight, and the market price may be slightly boosted. Therefore, the silicone DMC Data Engineer of the business community believes that the organic DMC market is stable The future market of silicon DMC will be stable and strong.

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Affected by the new epidemic situation, the global economy will be hit hard in 2020, the performance of international crude oil market will be ups and downs, the breakdown of OPEC + negotiations, ultra scale production reduction, “negative oil price”, and the farce ridden US election will come in droves. In 2020, the domestic oil product market will first be restricted by local traffic and production, resulting in low demand for oil products; then, the crude oil price will not be adjusted when it is below the floor price of $40 / barrel, and the oil product price will run at a low level after falling in 2020. According to the price comparison chart of the business community in the past three years of 2018, 2019 and 2020, in 2020, the price of refined oil market fell sharply at the beginning of the year, then continued to run at a low level, and the later fluctuation was far less than that in 2018 and 2019.

Benzalkonium chloride

 

Let’s first review the trend of oil products market in 2020

 

Trend chart of average distribution price of domestic 92% gasoline

 

Trend chart of domestic 0 ᦇ diesel distribution average price

 

On the whole, according to the data of business news agency, as of December 31, 2020, the price of gasoline is 5697 yuan / ton, with an annual decrease of 14.21%, while the price of diesel is 4835 yuan / ton, with an annual decrease of 23.96%.

 

In January, with the blessing of new year’s day and Spring Festival, the domestic oil product market needs to have expectation and guarantee, and the domestic oil product market price remains stable. At the end of January, Wuhan city was closed, domestic transportation and production were restricted, and international oil prices quickly entered the downward channel. The domestic oil product market was frequently bad, and the oil product rapidly declined. By the end of February and the beginning of March, China’s epidemic situation was under control, and all parts of the country actively returned to work and production. However, the negotiation of OPEC + production reduction agreement broke down, Russia and Saudi Arabia fought a price war, and Saudi Arabia announced a large-scale production increase to gain more market share. The two sides wrestled with each other to return to the negotiation table, and the oil price plummeted. 4. In May, the domestic market returned to normal and the demand for refined oil was guaranteed, but the new epidemic spread abroad. The international crude oil price continued to be lower than the floor price of US $40 / barrel, and the domestic refined oil price remained unchanged. On May 7, 2020, the lowest price of gasoline appeared in the year, with the price of 4576 yuan / ton; at this time, the market price of diesel also fell to the low point of 4800 yuan / ton.

 

Since the second half of the year, although the epidemic is still fermenting, the economy has continued to recover, and the oil price has entered a relatively stable stage. In July, OPEC + extended a month’s super scale production reduction (9.7 million barrels), and the production reduction scale has dropped to 7.7 million barrels / day since August. From July to October, oil prices have been rising and falling, mainly in the range of shocks. During this period, the domestic oil product market price rebounded gradually, but the overall rebound rate of the oil product market price was not large (gasoline price increased by 4.5% from June to October; diesel price continued to fall by 8.4%), and there was no other good news stimulation, so the domestic oil product price was not hot and low from June to October.

 

After November, the new crown vaccine made a major breakthrough. In addition, OPEC + reached an agreement to reduce production in early December, which also sent a positive signal to the oil market, opening an upward channel for international oil prices. The price adjustment of domestic oil products ushered in “four consecutive rises”, driving the price of domestic oil products up. From November to December, gasoline prices rose by 10.08%, and diesel prices rose by 6.12%.

 

The monthly rise and fall of gasoline and diesel are as follows:

 

Prospects for 2021

 

Crude oil demand continues to recover in 2021

 

The epidemic situation in 2020 has always existed. At present, the world economy in 2021 may still be shrouded in the shadow of the epidemic situation. Although the vaccine has made a major breakthrough and entered the vaccination process, there are still many variables in the current epidemic situation. For example, the number of infected people is still increasing, Europe and the United States are still implementing restrictive measures, and the virus variants also bring new challenges to the vaccine. The most important factor of oil price around 2021 is still demand. Recently, OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for 2021 again. Due to the continuous impact of the new epidemic, the rebound speed of global oil demand in 2021 will be slower than previously expected. Its latest monthly report shows that the demand will increase by 5.9 million barrels / day to 95.89 million barrels / day next year. This growth is expected to be 350000 B / D lower than a month ago. The recovery of demand has a long way to go.

 

Refined oil prices will rebound in 2021

 

In 2020, the domestic oil product market demand will basically return to normal, and the fluctuation of oil product market price is mainly affected by the international crude oil price. With the development of vaccines in various countries, the world economy will gradually recover in 2021, the demand of international crude oil market will continue to improve, or will return to the pre epidemic level, and the rebound of international crude oil price will continue to benefit the domestic refined oil market. At the same time, with the large domestic refining and chemical enterprises gradually put into production, the problem of domestic oil product oversupply will gradually become prominent. Therefore, in 2021, the domestic oil product market will continue to rebound with the rise of crude oil price, but it will not be able to rise to the level before the epidemic.

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 31, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 218333 yuan / ton, which decreased by 11500 yuan / ton or 34.5% compared with the price at the beginning of the month (33333 yuan / ton on December 1).

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Demand weakened, silicone DMC market continued to fall in December

 

In December, the trend of organosilicon DMC’s soaring has eased. The firm offer for nearly two months has made the downstream industry strongly resist high prices. The wait-and-see mood of the downstream industry has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has also declined. Therefore, on the 2nd of the first month, the leading manufacturers of Shandong organosilicon DMC took the lead in reducing the ex factory offer of organosilicon DMC by 2000 yuan / ton. As of the 13th, the ex factory offer of organosilicon DMC has declined The reference is 32000-33000 yuan / ton. In the following week, some silicone factories lowered their DMC ex factory quotation twice, with a reduction range of 1000-5500 yuan / ton within one week. As of the 21st, the market mainstream quotation was around 28000-30000 yuan / ton. After the decline of silicone DMC, there was no large-scale replenishment in the lower reaches, and most of them were still waiting to fall.

 

On the 25th, individual manufacturers of silicone DMC in Shandong sharply reduced the ex factory quotation of DMC to 22000 yuan / ton, down by 5000 yuan / ton. The rest of the factories also began to reduce the profit and shipment, and gradually reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC. For a time, “the market dropped a lot”, and the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC was around 22000-23000 yuan / ton. As of December 25, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average quoted price of silicone DMC was 22666 yuan / ton, down 6333 yuan / ton compared with the price of the previous day (December 24), with a daily drop of 21.84%; compared with the price of the beginning of the month (December 1, reference price of 33333 yuan / ton), the average quoted price was down 10677 yuan / ton, with a drop of 32%.

 

In the last week of December, some monomer factories reduced the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC again by 500-1000 yuan / ton. The average quotation price of silicone DMC was 218333 yuan / ton, which was 11500 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month (33333 yuan / ton on December 1), a decrease of 34.5%.

 

After the price drops to a relatively low level, the market will maintain stability

 

At present, the domestic market of silicone DMC has fallen sharply. After a few days, it has fallen to a relatively low space, and new downstream orders have been followed up. Therefore, the silicone DMC Data Engineer of business society thinks that the market of silicone DMC will continue to fall in the short term, and the space is limited, and most of them will maintain stable operation.

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Zinc price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc dropped slightly in December, the demand of zinc market was general, and the market performance of zinc market was general. As of December 31, the average price of zinc was 21323.33 yuan / ton, down 1.84% from 21723.33 yuan / ton on December 1.

 

Domestic zinc monthly output

 

Date: output of current month (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

November 2020: 58-582.1 – 0.7-3.1

October 2020 – 58.6 – 524.2 – 9.3 – 3

September 2020: 56.5-465.6-2.9-2.1

April 31, 2020

July 2020 – 52.4 – 356.9 – 0.2 – 4.6

June 2020: 52-304.8-1.2-7.7

May 2020: 51.4 252.7 4.5 9.1

April 2020: 51.7 201.3 7.3 10.7

March 2020: 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

December 2019 – 60.7 – 623.6 – 19.5 – 9.2

November 2019 – 59.4 – 569.2 – 13.1 – 9

According to the data of China National Bureau of statistics, the output of zinc decreased slightly in November, but the overall output of zinc increased in 2020, and the supply of zinc in the city is still relatively sufficient. The decrease of domestic supply of zinc in November has a certain supporting effect on the rise of zinc in the City, but the overall support is limited.

 

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

 

From the PMI index trend and zinc ingot price rise and fall chart, zinc ingot trend is highly correlated with macroeconomic trend. During the period of macroeconomic recovery and rise, zinc price is likely to rise, and zinc market has sufficient power to rise. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 51.9% in December. Although it was 0.2 percentage point lower than last month, it was above the critical point for 10 consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing industry continued to recover steadily. The macro-economic index rebounded, the demand of zinc market rose, the zinc market was generally good, but the rising momentum weakened.

 

Import and export data of zinc products

 

Export (RMB 10000) and import (RMB 10000) were ±% over the same period last year

Monthly quantity ﹣ current year cumulative quantity ﹣ monthly quantity ﹣ current year cumulative quantity ﹣ export ﹣ import

January 2019 – zinc and its products – 13747 13747 149311 149311 24.5 – 14.1

February 2019 – zinc and its products – 7004 20767 49626 198936 – 4.5 – 26.7

March 2019 – zinc and its products – 10400 31164 121449 320385 – 7.7 – 14.9

April 2019 – zinc and its products – 11097 42035 175192 495577 – 8.5 5.4

May 2019 – 12385 54423 139800 635348 – 11.1-3

June 2019 – zinc and its products – 25686 – 80135 – 132032 – 767326 – 3.6 – 7

July 2019 – zinc and its products – 38507 118653 101923 869371 26.9 4.5

August 2019 – zinc and its products – 20777 139402 141244 1010615 30 6.6

September 2019 – zinc and its products – 14268 153670 80799 1091454 25.4 – 0.6

October 2019 – zinc and its products – 21319 174932 98273 1189390 30.2 – 6.4

November 2019: zinc and its products 32531 207394 101435 1292566 39.1 – 14.4

December 2019 – zinc and its products – 23286 – 229131 – 148593 – 1441230 – 40.1 – 15.7

January to February 2020: zinc and its products 29057 137093 41.3 – 31.2

March 2020: zinc and its products: 17123 46174 80479 217620 50.5 – 32.4

April 2020: zinc and its products 15395 61569 84595 302215 48.1 – 39.3

May 2020 – zinc and its products 13335 75013 94772 396988 39.1 – 37.6

June 2020: zinc and its products: 13774 88788 132810 529798 11.8 – 30.9

July 2020: zinc and its products: 13351 102139 106681 636479 – 13.2 – 26.7

January, 2020

September 2020: zinc and its products: 11818 126230 139195 895768 – 17.1 – 17.8

October 2020: zinc and its products: 12744 138974 149146 1044914 – 19.9 – 12.1

November 2020: zinc and its products 13683 152657 163603 1208517 – 25.8 – 6.3

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, the export amount of zinc and its products in November 2020 was 136.83 million yuan, and the total export amount from January to November was 1526.57 million yuan; the import amount in November was 163.03 million yuan, and the total import amount from January to November was 12085.17 million yuan. Exports dropped by 25.85% and 6.3% respectively. It can be seen from the table that China’s export of zinc and its products decreased significantly in November, but the import increased instead of decreasing. The domestic zinc market was in sufficient supply, and the overall zinc market oversupply increased.

 

Analysis summary and Prospect

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: the demand of zinc market in December was relatively stable, but on the supply side, due to the import volume of zinc and its products increased greatly, the domestic zinc market oversupply increased, the domestic zinc market supply and demand imbalance, zinc price rising momentum was insufficient, and the downward pressure increased, and zinc price fell slightly in December. However, with the weakening of the impact of the international epidemic, the global zinc mines gradually returned to normal operation, the global supply of zinc increased, the supply of zinc was sufficient, and the rising space of zinc price was limited. Zinc price is expected to rise slightly in the future.

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441 silicon price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

On December 30, the price of silicon metal (441) moved down. According to the data of business news agency, on December 30, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.9% compared with the average market price of 13925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (12.1), a rise of 31.53% compared with the average market price of 10491.67 yuan / ton at the valley (7.1) of the year, and a rise of 16.62% compared with the average market price of 11833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (1.1).

 

On the 30th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

 

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13100-13300 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13500-13600 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13500-13600 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14500-14700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 14000-14100 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 13800-13900 yuan / ton 。

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1、 Price trend

 

Melamine

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the TDI market price kept stable this week. The average price of the East China market at the weekend was 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 0.78% compared with 12766.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week, up 10.47% compared with the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

During the week, the domestic TDI market was deadlocked and wait-and-see, the atmosphere in the market was empty, the market was weak at the beginning of the week, the operators were cautious, the low price shipping intention was not high, the offer kept running in the range, the downstream purchased on demand, the demand was weak, and the buying intention was weak. In terms of polyether, the market focus is upward, and the downstream sponge factories are under great pressure. Most of the manufacturers mainly purchase on demand, but their buying enthusiasm has not improved, and their purchase of TDI is limited. As of the 27th, TDI domestic offer in East China market is 12200-12500 yuan / ton, Shanghai offer is 12500-13000 yuan / ton.

 

This week, the price trend of toluene rose first and then fell, and the price fell as a whole. As of the 27th, the domestic average price was about 3770 yuan / ton. The bearish fall of crude oil during the week led to the weakness of toluene in the external market, and the domestic toluene Market followed the decline. It is expected that the domestic toluene market will be weak in the future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the analysis of the data division of the business society: at present, the domestic TDI market is weak and deadlocked, the atmosphere in the market is cold, the downstream demand is off-season, the transaction is cold, and the TDI market is deadlocked in the later stage, so we should pay attention to the downstream market news.

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In 2020, the domestic butadiene market as a whole will show a “V” trend. In the first half of the year, the market will drop sharply, reaching the lowest point in the middle of the year. In the second half of the year, the market will go up in a wide range and advance bravely. At the end of November, the domestic butadiene market price will reach the highest point in the year. Finally, affected by the decline of the external price and the contradiction between supply and demand, it ended hastily. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the domestic butadiene market price was 8312 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2020, and 8117 yuan / ton as of December 25, with a decrease of 2.34% during the year. The “brilliant” situation in the second half of the year ended miserably. During the year, the lowest price was 3456 yuan / ton on June 30, and the highest price was 9938 yuan / ton on November 30, with a maximum amplitude of 187.52%, showing the largest increase since October 2019.

Sodium selenite

 

Specifically, in the first half of 2020, the domestic butadiene market price “repeatedly broke new lows”. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic butadiene market price was 3456 yuan / ton on June 30, 2020, which was the lowest price in 10 years since January 1, 2011.

 

In the first quarter, the domestic butadiene market fell broadly, with the price falling from 8312 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 5127 yuan / ton at the end of March, a decrease of 38.31%. Affected by the weather in early January, the supply of butadiene in northern China was relatively tight, and the domestic butadiene market maintained a consolidation situation for a period of time. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the trading of the downstream market gradually stagnates, the export manufacturers sell the goods in advance before the holiday and during the holiday, the downstream just needs to fill the position, and the market atmosphere is mainly weak and stable. In February, the domestic butadiene market fell sharply. After the Spring Festival, due to the impact of public health emergencies, the downstream resumption of work was delayed and the logistics transportation was stagnated. However, most butadiene plants maintained normal operation, the inventory in circulation was high, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market deteriorated, which dragged the market down rapidly. In March, the downstream rubber industry market continued to decline, and the inventory pressure was huge, so it was difficult for butadiene supply and demand fundamentals to have favorable support, and the market continued to decline.

 

Entering the second quarter, the decline rate of domestic butadiene market slowed down, but there was still a significant decline. The price of butadiene dropped from 5127 yuan / ton on April 1 to 3456 yuan / ton at the end of June, with a drop of 32.59%. At the end of the first half of the year, the price of butadiene in the domestic market dropped by 58.41%, breaking the new low of nearly a decade. At the end of March and the first half of April, there was a great pressure on external supply, and the transaction prices of some sources were slightly lower, which dragged down the domestic spot market. Under the expectation of unit maintenance in May, Sinopec’s price continued to rise at the end of April, which led to a wave of rise in butadiene market from the end of April to early May. In June, the domestic butadiene market continued its weak downward trend, with abundant ocean going cargo arriving at Hong Kong. Although downstream plants in Shandong have a certain demand for butadiene spot, the market is still weak under the influence of abundant supply of tank farms. Some northeast spot resources are not traded smoothly, manufacturers’ prices are under pressure and declining, and the market center of gravity follows the overall decline.

 

Bacillus thuringiensis

In the second half of the year, at the beginning of July, the external closing prices of butadiene in Asia, Europe and the United States rose intermittently. By September 2020, the number of days of monthly internal and external closing prices rose was 12 days. In October, the number of days for the closing price of the external market to rise has reached 10. Take CFR China as an example. On July 1, CFR China closed at US $365-375 / T, and on October 23, CFR China closed at US $1035-1045 / T, with a sharp rise of 670 yuan / T or 183.56%. The good news on the external market injected a boost into the long depressed domestic market of butadiene in the first half of the year. During this period, the traders actively followed the rise, creating a situation in which there was a shortage of goods and the domestic butadiene price continued to rise. As for the main production enterprises, take Sinopec’s sales companies as an example. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the external supply price of Sinopec’s sales companies was 3600 yuan / ton on July 1, reaching the lowest point in the year. As of October 26, the external supply price of Sinopec’s sales companies was 9200 yuan / ton, up 155.6%, which had a significant effect on boosting the market. For a long time, other major production enterprises in Northeast China, such as Fushun Petrochemical and Liaotong petrochemical, mainly used butadiene for their own use and temporarily did not export. In addition, on October 20, Wuhan ethylene 130000 T / a plant of Sinopec central China sales branch was shut down for maintenance, which seriously affected the social inventory of butadiene. Other enterprises such as Liaoyang Petrochemical Company, Dalian Hengli company and Inner Mongolia Jiutai company also increased their ex factory quotations. For a time, the butadiene market situation was difficult to control, and there were many cases of traders’ arbitrary quotations. On the other hand, affected by the higher interest rate of natural rubber futures, the price of butadiene downstream synthetic rubber has increased significantly, and the whole industrial chain has a positive linkage, which promotes the butadiene market to rise again and again.

 

It can also be seen from the above table that the average import price of butadiene fell month by month from the first half of the year to August. Since September, the average import price has risen sharply, further boosting the domestic butadiene market. The rising trend of butadiene market is “out of control”.

 

Since the end of November, there has been a slight decline in the domestic butadiene market. The main reasons are the downward drag of the external price, the export of goods from northeast production enterprises, and the resumption of production and export by individual parking enterprises, so the market supply is relatively abundant. Due to the impact of environmental protection, the start-up of downstream industry is limited, the contradiction between supply and demand is particularly prominent, and the center of gravity of butadiene market is forced to go down. With the restart of Wuhan Petrochemical Company, Jiangsu sipang plant and the gradual release of Yantai Wanhua production, the domestic butadiene market showed abundant supply side in the medium term. The downstream synthetic rubber market is low, environmental protection and other factors affect the terminal demand is weak, the supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to have a sustained positive, and the market is expected to have a rebound trend.

 

It can be seen from the annual comparison chart of butadiene prices of business associations that in the past three years, the domestic butadiene market showed a downward trend in the first half of the year and a slow recovery trend in the second half of the year. In the short term, the current supply is sufficient, some of the devices have been overhauled and sold out, the downstream rubber industry is affected by the environmental protection policy, the operating rate is significantly reduced, and the procurement is mainly just needed. According to the news agency, the butadiene business in China may be lower in the first quarter of 2021.

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Near the weekend, the domestic adipic acid market performance is weak, some regions dealers offer a small decline. The quotation of domestic manufacturers is stable for the time being, the normal operation rate of the plant is about 80%, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is maintained at a medium high level. The market is gradually accumulating, the downstream demand is relatively weak, and the dealers’ delivery is generally lower than the level at the beginning of the month. At present, under the influence of the off-season effect of adipic acid, the difficulty of high price support becomes more and more prominent, and the cost side: pure benzene has continued to fall from a high level since the middle of this week, with a decline of 0.80%. The upstream cost is bad, and the support for downstream adipic acid is insufficient. In addition, the terminal entered the winter off-season mode, the demand growth was not as expected, and the PA66 price continued to fall, and the downstream procurement gradually slowed down.

 

Melamine

In terms of local markets:

 

On December 25, the adipic acid Market in East China was mainly weak and stable, most dealers kept their prices stable, and dealers went with the market. Market inquiries are normal, high price transactions are not many, and some dealers give up profits to ship. At present, the market quotation is uneven, the manufacturers’ inventory pressure is general, and the shipment is normal. Today’s market mainstream prices are: Shandong source 8000-8200 yuan / ton acceptance price, Jiangsu source 8100-8500 yuan / ton acceptance price. In the downstream, rigid demand is the main source, and the demand has stabilized. In the near future, the market is relatively stable, and the price has been adjusted in a narrow range.

 

The market of adipic acid in South China continued to be stable. The quotation did not change much compared with that at the beginning of the week. The dealers gave up the profits to ship, the manufacturers had general inventory pressure, and the transaction was OK. Today’s market mainstream prices are: Shandong’s 8000-8300 yuan / ton acceptance price, Jiangsu’s 8100-8500 yuan / ton acceptance price, and the downstream is mainly just need procurement.

 

In the future, the adipic acid market will be slightly oversupplied in the near future. At present, the rise and fall of prices are mostly affected by the increase of local supply. In the overall situation, the market is still weak and stable, with greater upward pressure. The market is easy to fall but difficult to rise. The root cause is the weakness of demand, which may still maintain the weak market. We do not rule out the possibility that prices will continue to fall.

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1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

 

Benzalkonium chloride

Nitric acid price curve

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in China on December 22 was 2050 yuan / ton, compared with 2066 yuan / ton last week, down 0.81%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Anhui Jinhe quoted about 2000 yuan / ton, which was about 50 yuan / ton lower than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / T, which was flat compared with last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 2030 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was 50 yuan / t lower than last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd., quoted 1950 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid and 810 yuan / T of dilute nitric acid The price of concentrated nitric acid is the same as that of last week; the quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1950 yuan / T. The delivery of nitric acid Market slowed down compared with the previous period, and the quotation of some regions was slightly reduced.

 

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of upstream liquid ammonia increased by 0.51% from December 14 to December 22; the price of aniline in Shandong was 7600-7700 yuan / ton on February 13; aniline price in Nanjing was 7900-8000 yuan / ton; on December 20, the price in Shandong was 7600-7700 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price was 7900-8000 yuan / ton, the average price was the same as last week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Raw material liquid ammonia market is good, nitric acid analysts in Business Club predict that the price of nitric acid has limited space to fall.

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