1、 Price trend

 

Benzalkonium chloride

According to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week, and the overall price rose compared with last week. On January 24, the price of pure benzene was 4180-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4490 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (January 31), the price of pure benzene was 4330-4800 yuan / ton (average price was 4626 yuan / ton), up 136 yuan / ton or 3.03% from last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 150 yuan / ton to 4800 yuan / ton. Due to the impact of public health events and the impact of low price hydrogenated benzene in northern China, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, and the North South arbitrage window opened. The inflow of low-cost goods in North China, coupled with the reduction of logistics in the early spring festival, led to the rebound of pure benzene market price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 2000 tons compared with last week. The port’s pick-up was limited, and the inventory decline was small.

 

In terms of external market, the range of external market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. On Friday (January 29), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 659 US dollars / ton, up 3.33 US dollars / ton or 0.51% compared with January 22, and the reference price of import in East China was 662.5 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton or 1.69% compared with January 22.

 

In terms of crude oil, the news of Iraq’s decision to make compensatory production cuts at the beginning of this week supported the crude oil market, but the epidemic situation was still severe, curbing the demand of the crude oil market. On January 22, Brent fell 0.095 USD / barrel, or 0.17%; WTI fell 0.19 USD / barrel, or 0.36%.

 

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene rebounded, showing an overall upward performance. On Friday (January 29), the price of sample enterprises was 6883.33 yuan / ton, up 66.66 yuan / ton or 0.98% compared with last Friday, and down 4.84% compared with the same period last year. This week, the average operating rate of domestic styrene plants rose to 82.66% from 78.97% last week, up 3.69%. At present, the profit margin of styrene is good, and the cost support is still weak. The downstream still keeps considerable profits, and the market is expected to reserve some goods before the Spring Festival.

 

Aniline: the capacity of some aniline plants is restored, Jiangsu Fuqiang is expected to ship, and the market supply may increase in the later stage, so the operators are cautious. This week aniline Market Stability consolidation. On January 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market is not good enough, and there is great upward pressure, but the price is still high and volatile. Continue to pay attention to the US fiscal stimulus plan, global COVID-19 and OPEC+ related news on promoting production reduction.

 

Downstream: downstream enterprises of styrene mainly digest rigid demand contracts and pre low orders, and the demand for spot goods is low. In addition, the downstream production has been reduced before the festival, and there is great uncertainty about returning to the market after the festival, so the demand for styrene may further weaken.

 

Ningbo Zhongjin delayed the restart time, and the market supply is expected to decrease by the end of February. Near the Spring Festival, some downstream terminals have been shut down one after another, and the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is on the high side, so the demand for pure benzene is weakening. Benzene and its downstream are expected to enter consolidation period next week, and the price is expected to be relatively stable. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, the trend of pure benzene plant, crude oil, external market and styrene.

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