On February 1, international oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising more than 2%. Data showed that the settlement price of WTI crude oil in the United States was $53.55/barrel, up $1.35. Brent crude oil futures settlement price at 56.35 U.S. dollars / barrel or 2.59%, or 1.31 U.S. dollars or 2.34%. Due to the decline of crude oil inventory in the United States, the effective production reduction continuously promoted by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) and the rising fuel demand caused by the snowstorm in the northeast of the United States, many favorable factors weakened the impact of the epidemic in the short term, and the market rose significantly on Monday.

First of all, the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories is the direct reason for the rise in oil prices. Although the data released last week did not give a strong boost to oil prices, mainly due to the impact of epidemic concerns, there are signs that crude oil inventories may decline again this week, which brings more benefits to the market. The data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) the previous week showed that the US crude oil inventory may decline again in the week of January 22 China’s commercial crude oil inventories fell 9.9 million barrels to 476.7 million barrels, while analysts expected an increase of 430000 barrels.

Analysts’ judgment is mainly due to the impact of cold weather brought by snowstorms in the United States, and the rapid rise in fuel demand has significantly supported oil prices. The northeast of the United States is suffering from a strong winter blizzard, which mainly affects a large area from Pennsylvania to New England, and has a serious impact on New York City and other major urban centers. Therefore, the demand for fuel in winter suddenly rises when the weather turns cold, and the inventory in Cushing area of the United States is expected to continue to decline.

In addition, at present, the effect of OPEC + production reduction policy is remarkable, and the implementation rate of production reduction is high. OPEC + has maintained a high implementation rate of production reduction since December last year, and OPEC’s production growth in January was less than expected. News shows that OPEC + production reduction implementation rate in December 2020 is 99%. Among them, the implementation rates of OPEC and its allies in December 2020 are 103% and 93% respectively, with Saudi Arabia playing the most obvious role. Russia’s oil and condensate production in January increased by 120000 B / D to 10160000 B / D compared with the previous month. Russia once said that it would increase production by 125000 B / D in January. Therefore, the increase rate in this month is generally in line with the expectation, but lower than the increase scale in the first half of January.

According to the business community, at present, crude oil is still in the state of long short game. Under the background that the epidemic trend has not yet been reversed, it may be difficult for oil prices to have a big market under this restriction. Many countries are still implementing restrictive measures, especially in the aviation field, which is seriously hit. The demand for aviation fuel is still difficult to improve in the short term. At the same time, the extreme cold weather in the United States in winter will continue to boost the demand for heating fuel oil. The supply side is mainly rebalancing, OPEC + production reduction is continuing, and Libya’s production is also declining, which will balance the risks of the supply side. However, the rise of shale oil production in the United States is still the main uncertain factor of future crude oil supply. Recent data show that the number of active oil and gas rigs in U.S. energy companies has increased for 10 weeks in a row, and the increase of crude oil production in the United States is expected to rise significantly Wen. On the whole, the oil price may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment in the near future. If vaccination can speed up and the virus inhibition efficiency is obvious, there is a greater probability that the oil price will continue to rise.